Monthly Archives: August 2008

Question to the Midas Oracle readers who trade event derivatives on BetFair

- Did the BetFair website fail many times in the past? – Did the Betfair website experience loading problems under some circumstances (political elections, national team wining a game, etc.)? Previously: The InTrade website problems

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , , , , , , | 3 Comments

HubDub’s Nigel Eccles ridiculizes Paul Kedrosky’s post bashing the prediction markets after the Sarah Palin upset.

Hilarious. – -

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Humor, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

InTrade-TradeSports has a web server misconfiguration problem, and CEO John Delaney has a character problem.

As I wrote at the time, the InTrade-TradeSports websites were unavailable, last Friday, August 29, 2008, during a good part of the morning. InTrade-TradeSports is not only an event derivative exchange, but also a webspot that non-trading people often consult … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 15 Comments

Paul Kedrosky … sucks. — Plus, Jason Trost is bashing InTrade and BetFair in order to boost his startup, Smarkets.

I will soon publish a full post on the relative accuracy of the VP prediction markets (and whether the prediction markets are useful at all, taking into account the occasional upsets theorized by Koleman Strumpf) —tackling Paul Kedrosky, Felix Salmon, … Continue reading

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Democratic hatchet men disguised as “scholars” in the Press

The title of the Politico story is, “Scholars question Palin credentials“. Now, read the update to get a good laugh. -

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2 very funny headlines about Sarah Palin

Huh? -

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Prediction markets, search engines, and social networking: a triangular marriage made in heaven.

Midas Oracle is a group blog devoted on all the dimensions of all the prediction markets. The marketing dimension is important. Since the Iowa Electronic Markets, the Foresight Exchange, the Hollywood Stock Exchange, BetFair, NewsFutures and TradeSports (which later spinned … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Zocalo in use at MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence

A few months ago I announced that my work on the Zocalo open source Prediction Market project is being supported by consulting contracts with two universities, but was unable to name the second one. I’m pleased to publicly announce that … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

The ubber president of the Pennock fan club responds to Felix Salmon.

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Quit mulling over the VP-choice prediction markets, today’s real story is in the election winner markets.

I would suggest that the VP selections and the performance of the VP-choice markets at InTrade and elsewhere lend some validity to Chris Masse’s views on such markets. But enough about the VP markets, already. The interesting developments are in … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments