Tag Archives: corporate prediction markets

Do the top brass really tell everything to the trading employees? Do the EPM traders have access to all the primary indicators?

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Prediction markets: the future of decision-making – Companies are now making business decisions based on information employees provide via internal trading systems. – The Times of London – 2008-09-04

&#8220-We use them [“them” = the enterprise prediction markets] as another point in the decision-making process, alongside asking experts and other business leaders,&#8221- said Christina LaComb, a computer scientist in the R&amp-D lab at GE.

OK. You&#8217-re using enterprise prediction markets- you&#8217-ve gotten your name in the newspapers- you&#8217-re &#8220-cool&#8221-.

And our good friend David Perry&#8217-s gotten your money.

But do your event derivative traders have the same access as you do to &#8220-experts&#8221- and other &#8220-business leaders&#8221-?

Or do you leave them in the dark? In that case, your enterprise prediction markets would be clueless, useless, and worthless.

WORLDS MOST EXPERIENCED PREDICTION MARKET PRACTITIONER CASTS A DOUBT ON THE VALIDITY OF MSR, IN USE IN MOST PUBLIC PLAY-MONEY PREDICTION EXCHANGES AND IN MOST ENTERPRISE PREDICTION EXCHANGES.

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PREDICTION MARKET STARTUP GRABS REKNOWNED RESEARCHER AWAY FROM HP LABS. – TIPPING POINT FOR THE PREDICTION MARKET INDUSTRY?

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You know what I thought when I first saw that picture (little Fogarty planted next to Master Of Credit Alan Greenspan)?… I thought, well, its about time that the prediction market industry does the product endorsement by celebrity marketing thing. BetFair premiered that with John McCririck.

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TV-famous horse racing pundit: John McCririck.

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John McCririck

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John McCririck endorsing BetFair

Look at the inconsistency between the two faces. Mat Fogarty is jubilant like if he had just stolen a big client from Inkling. Alan Greenspan, on the other hand, has a constipated look that conveys that he is fed up with all those conference co-speakers asking him out for a photo op.

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Forrester recommend to add enterprise prediction markets in the company toolbox.

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Forrester recommend to view enterprise prediction markets as&#8230- addition &#8212-not substitution.

Excellent point.

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Prediction Markets Harness The Wisdom Of The Crowd To Predict The Future
Prediction Markets Bring A Market Function To The Gathering Of Information
Most Markets See Accuracy That Is At Least As Good As Traditional Forecasting Methods
Prediction Markets Have Substantive Benefits For The Enterprise&#8230-
&#8230-But Still Need Active Supervision To Ensure Success

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The &#8220-wisdom of crowds&#8221- is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively predict future events — to generate collective intelligence. For enterprises, prediction markets bring unique value: They focus on the future, aggregate diverse information pools that can be applied to multiple decision-making domains, create streams of actionable data suitable for executive decision-making, and can often cut through corporate politics and pressures at lower cost than traditional forecasting methods. Market researchers will, however, need to have an active hand in the management of these mechanisms, ensuring strong management support, the right incentives for traders, and a focus on appropriate questions. When executed properly, the value to the enterprise is enormous- as a result, Forrester believes that prediction markets will ultimately find a permanent home in the market research toolbox.

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Yet another prediction market newbie who should be meeting with Robin Hanson one on one to get a little injection about conditional prediction markets and how they could be useful for BOTH private decision makers AND public policy makers.

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Lewis Sheperd (the Chief Technology Officer of Microsoft’s Institute for Advanced Technology in Governments):

Indeed, it appears to me that [prediction markets] are growing not from corporate or government use, but mostly organically from within academia, stock-futures circles and political-junkie communities. I&#8217-m reading the interesting variety of writers and prediction-marketeers at Midas Oracle, which brings together widely ranging posts from faculty members at Harvard and other universities, daytraders, and even a few “amateurs.”

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Lewis Sheperd notes in his post that a number of for-profit companies (like Google and General Electric) are using private prediction markets (a.k.a. enterprise prediction markets). Non-for-profit organizations (like governmental agencies) would do great, too, using the same forecasting tool &#8212-an &#8220-information aggregation mechanism&#8221- (IAM), more exactly.

Robin Hanson, instead of boring us with philosophy, go evangelizing that newbie.

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UPDATE: Yes, he is willing to learn. :-D See his comment.

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VIDEO – Bo Cowgill on Googles enterprise prediction markets – OReilly Money:Tech

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Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06

Blip.TV

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I already published this video. The reason I do it again is that I found out a hidden function in WordPress to increase the dimensions of the embedded video player. I think it is useful in this particular case because Bo shows us some slides, in this video. So, my hope is that those slides will be more readable that way. Let&#8217-s try that. I am pressing &#8220-publish&#8221-&#8230- let&#8217-s see.

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Our previous blog post on the Google paper

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 9 days. We have 9 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • Forrest Nelson valids Emile Servan-Schreiber.
  • Averaging One’s Guesses
  • Americans love rankings, but Americans hate to be assessed subjectively.
  • A libertarian view on the Internet betting and gambling industry in the United States of America
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 10 days. We have 10 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The Numbers Guy