Forrester recommend to view enterprise prediction markets as…- addition —-not substitution.
Prediction Markets Harness The Wisdom Of The Crowd To Predict The Future
Prediction Markets Bring A Market Function To The Gathering Of Information
Most Markets See Accuracy That Is At Least As Good As Traditional Forecasting Methods
Prediction Markets Have Substantive Benefits For The Enterprise…-
…-But Still Need Active Supervision To Ensure Success
The “-wisdom of crowds”- is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively predict future events — to generate collective intelligence. For enterprises, prediction markets bring unique value: They focus on the future, aggregate diverse information pools that can be applied to multiple decision-making domains, create streams of actionable data suitable for executive decision-making, and can often cut through corporate politics and pressures at lower cost than traditional forecasting methods. Market researchers will, however, need to have an active hand in the management of these mechanisms, ensuring strong management support, the right incentives for traders, and a focus on appropriate questions. When executed properly, the value to the enterprise is enormous- as a result, Forrester believes that prediction markets will ultimately find a permanent home in the market research toolbox.