Robin Hansons blah blah on futarchy (using conditional prediction markets to govern a country) – [VIDEO]

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Robin Hanson debates a Mencius Moldbug on prediction markets, decision markets, and&#8230- futarchy:

Foresight 2010 debate: Futarchy from Monica Anderson on Vimeo.

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Who cares about that Mencius Moldbug anyway?


The United States and the European governments will default on their debt, eventually – dixit Marc Faber. [PREDICTIONS]

Singapore is the safest.

2:15 into

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Via Joe Weisenthal

Debate is raging between Robin Hanson and the futarchy critics

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Robin Hanson comments on Paul Hewitt&#8217-s blog.

Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton&#8217-s blog.

Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson&#8217-s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all.

Paul Hewitt:

[…] My point is that the case for prediction markets has not been made, at all. There is a tiny bit of proof that they are as good as alternative methods, and in a very few cases, very slightly better. Also, you need to be aware that even the slightly better prediction markets had the benefit of the alternative forecasting institution available to it. That is, the official forecasters at HP were also participants in the ever-so-slightly better prediction markets. […]

&#8211-&gt- I personally stay away from any discussion about conditional prediction markets (and futarchy). I prefer focusing on the &#8217-simple&#8217- prediction markets.

Yet another prediction market newbie who should be meeting with Robin Hanson one on one to get a little injection about conditional prediction markets and how they could be useful for BOTH private decision makers AND public policy makers.

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Lewis Sheperd (the Chief Technology Officer of Microsoft’s Institute for Advanced Technology in Governments):

Indeed, it appears to me that [prediction markets] are growing not from corporate or government use, but mostly organically from within academia, stock-futures circles and political-junkie communities. I&#8217-m reading the interesting variety of writers and prediction-marketeers at Midas Oracle, which brings together widely ranging posts from faculty members at Harvard and other universities, daytraders, and even a few “amateurs.”

Lewis Sheperd notes in his post that a number of for-profit companies (like Google and General Electric) are using private prediction markets (a.k.a. enterprise prediction markets). Non-for-profit organizations (like governmental agencies) would do great, too, using the same forecasting tool &#8212-an &#8220-information aggregation mechanism&#8221- (IAM), more exactly.

Robin Hanson, instead of boring us with philosophy, go evangelizing that newbie.

UPDATE: Yes, he is willing to learn. :-D See his comment.