Tag Archives: vice president
How to oversell InTrade’s predictive power
Chad Rigetti (InTrade VP) is interviewed by the website “MoneyFoxs.com”.
In the seven days leading up [Joe Biden's] share price on Intrade went up about three and a half times. In the seven days leading up his share price on Intrade went up about three and a half times. In a field of about four or [...]
The ubber president of the Pennock fan club responds to Felix Salmon.
Sarah… Who?
She is at 59% as I type this.
(Sorry for my previous post about Mitt Romney. I consulted the political news websites before InTrade. )
Mitt Romney [or Sarah Palin] will be the Republican vice presidential nominee.
Tim Pawlenty won’t go in Dayton, Ohio. So, it’s Mitt Romney.
The play-money and real-money prediction markets were easily fooled with the Pawlenty rumors, yesterday.
That vindicates my message that the VP prediction markets feed on unreliable primary indicators.
I said from day one to be careful with the VP prediction markets.
I told you so.
UPDATE: It’s probably Sarah [...]
Tim… Who?
Link to the InTrade prediction market.
Below, I try to hot-link to the chart, I’m not sure at this point it will work. We will see.
A noun, a verb, and POW
John McCain will announce soon who will be the Republican vice presidential nominee.
Reading the Press this early Thursday morning does not give any insider’s clues.
New York Times
Politico
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Will Mitt Romney be McCain’s Vice Presidential nominee?
The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight.
The New York Times has a recount on how Barack Obama reached his decision on Joe Biden. The final decision was probably made 10 days ago, while Barack Obama was vacationing in Hawaii.
[...] Mr. Obama’s decision had as much to do with Mr. Biden’s appeal among white working-class voters and compelling personal story, and his [...]
Never trust a politician.
Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).
“Friend — I have some important news that I want to make official. I’ve chosen Joe Biden to be my running mate.”
Some blogger says his wife is fantastic.
New York Times portrait of Joe Biden.
UPDATE: Barack Obama’s speech + Joe Biden’s speech
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I think it is the worst pick ever. What a blunder. Joe Biden (a D.C. [...]
While InTrade CEO John Delaney is deceiving the journalists to sell his wares, Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Markets is telling them the truth: BEWARE THE VP-CANDIDATE PREDICTION MARKETS, THEY JUST AGGREGATE RUMORS.
BBC News:
According to Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Market, at Iowa University, futures markets need more hard information than they get in the veepstakes, to reliably predict a result.
Markets are very good at predicting elections, he says – but not choices being made inside Barack Obama’s or John McCain’s head.
Thank God for the BBC.
Thank [...]
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