As I told you the other day, I am very impressed by P2, a new interactive WordPress theme. I have not selected it for Midas Oracle (I chose WP FrameWork), but I think that P2 will influence a lot of other themes.
Download this post if your feed reader doesn’t show you the embedded video above.
S-I-M-P-L-I-C-I-T-Y + C-U-S-T-O-M-I-Z-A-T-I-O-N
Twitter is a very simplistic core. Around that core is a whole ecosystem that adds value to Twitter. You have a large choice of “-Twitter clients”-, and there are plenty of websites out there that complement the basic Twitter service.
It is the anti-BetFair case. The future prediction exchanges will be built around a simplistic core, and there will be plenty of add-ons and complimentary services —-all of which will be optional, so as not to scare off the newbies.
This past week, The Economist wrote on the yet-unfulfilled promise of prediction markets. At CrowdCast (ex-Xpree), we believe prediction markets are not yet mainstream because the current solutions are built on mechanisms designed for the stock market, not for the enterprise.
The stock trading metaphor works for a large, liquid stock market, but is unsuitable for enterprise forecasting. The concept of shorting and covered calls is far from intuitive for your average employee, and the stock mechanism makes it hard to ask the simplest of questions relevant for corporate forecasters. For example, buying or selling a collection of virtual stocks representing probabilities of sales falling in particular ranges is an incredibly obtuse way of asking for a single sales forecast. Finally, the stock mechanism relies on copious liquidity to ensure meaningful metrics, which is often not available with the limited crowds available in the enterprise.
However, innovation moves on and we question the assumption that prediction markets have to rely on the stock market analogy. At CrowdCast, we have been working on a new mechanism, that takes into account participant behavior and aptitude as much as market efficiency. The product we are launching in April will deliver easy, engaging, and expressive information exchanges, without the limitations of traditional notions of stock markets.
When you get the questions, incentives, and mechanism right, a prediction market can be an incredibly powerful management tool. Employees share insights anonymously and are measured and rewarded for their intelligence. Widely deployed, this has the potential to fundamentally change the nature of the organizational contract, moving from information flow based on hierarchy and silos, to enterprise-wide direct communication.
A whole new take on prediction markets- available from CrowdCast in April 2009.
Mat Fogarty
CrowdCast CEO
Cross-posted from the Xpree blog
Previously: Are collective intelligence solutions being oversold?
One simple word:
U-S-A-B-I-L-I-T-Y
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When I first tried Pikum, last year, I spent 10 minutes looking around, trying to figure out how to use their betting website. At the 11th minute, I gave up. For good.
Sean Glass is an amazing serial entrepreneur and he’-ll hatch many successful ventures in the future. I am sure many angel investors will back him up, again. However, the takeaway from the Pikum failure is that your user interface should not be too original. Users are spending most of their time on other websites —-so, do have a user interface that resembles what is found outside.
Let’-s hope Jason Trost got that one right.
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The biggest mistake I made in my life was to stick for too long to MicroSoft Windows. I should have switched to Apple Macintosh OS (or, alternatively, Linux Ubuntu) long ago. I am going to buy a MacBook Pro 17″-, next month.
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The provocative title of this post ( 
) refers to the fact that Internet citizens don’-t read on the Web.
They scan.
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I’-ve just read a Slate article that recaps Jakob Nielsen’-s teachings —-I highly recommend it to you.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
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Deluxe Corp.
Flash + Usability @ Google Search
Jakob Nielsen (world’-s #1 Internet usability expert)
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Previously: How BetFair screw up the “Next Mayor Of London” embeddable, enriched, compound chart widget —BIG TIME
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