Tag Archives: The University of Iowa

What I said to BusinessWeek

BusinessWeek’s Ricky McRoskey: Experts expect the initial reaction to CFTC regulation to be more low-cap, nonprofit markets like the one created by the University of Iowa. Some doubt the forecasting power in these small-scale markets, since there wouldn’t be enough … Continue reading

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Tom W. Bell rebuts the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).

Tom W. Bell: The CFTC should not limit “no action” status to markets run by tax-exempt organizations. The no-action letters that the CFTC issued to the IEM emphasized not the nature of the hosting institution, the University of Iowa, but … Continue reading

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Let’s Tell the CFTC Where to Go.

Update: I’ve extended the deadline for signing up until 7 p.m. Pacific, Sunday, July 6. Also, I fixed a typo in paragraph 3, changing “denying” to “giving.” (Thanks, Gil!)> The deadline looms for interested parties to respond to the Commodity … Continue reading

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Forrest Nelson valids Emile Servan-Schreiber.

Via our good friends at Forecasting Principles American Scientist: Forrest Nelson, a professor of economics at the University of Iowa, helped to found the Iowa Electronic Markets. He and his colleagues faced considerable push-back from their university’s lawyers in setting … Continue reading

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The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets

[This article is cross-posted from Major Wager.] – A recent article in the prestigious academic journal Science (May 16, 2008, Vol 320, p. 877-8) once again makes the case for regulated prediction markets, more commonly known as “betting exchanges” to … Continue reading

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CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – SUMMARY: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly … Continue reading

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The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize real-money prediction markets in the United States of America

The Promise of Prediction Markets – by Kenneth J. Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Robert Litan, Paul Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Marco Ottaviani, Thomas C. Schelling, Robert J. … Continue reading

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When Markets Beat The Polls – Scientific American Magazine

Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree (an innovative firm providing software for enterprise prediction markets), the Scientific American magazine on prediction markets –”When Markets Beat the Polls”. Ask me by e-mail to get a copy of the PDF file. Abstract: When … Continue reading

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When Markets Beat The Polls – Scientific American Magazine

Abstract: When Markets Beat the Polls; March 2008; Scientific American Magazine; by Gary Stix; 8 Page(s) In late March 1988 three economists from the University of Iowa were nursing beers at a local hangout in Iowa City, when conversation turned … Continue reading

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MONDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2007 – PREDICTION MARKETS HAVE JUST ARRIVED.

MATT DRUDGE (WHOSE ONE-PAGE SITE IS MORE POPULAR THAN THE NEW YORK TIMES) CITES A PREDICTION EXCHANGE (BETTING EXCHANGE) FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY. Traders on Iowa Electronic Markets, which have been predicting elections with surprising accuracy for 20 … Continue reading

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