Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: The University of Iowa

What I said to BusinessWeek

BusinessWeek’s Ricky McRoskey:
Experts expect the initial reaction to CFTC regulation to be more low-cap, nonprofit markets like the one created by the University of Iowa. Some doubt the forecasting power in these small-scale markets, since there wouldn’t be enough monetary incentive for traders to seek and discover information. “We do not need nonprofit prediction exchanges,” [...]

Tom W. Bell rebuts the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).

Tom W. Bell:
The CFTC should not limit “no action” status to markets run by tax-exempt organizations. The no-action letters that the CFTC issued to the IEM emphasized not the nature of the hosting institution, the University of Iowa, but rather the business model adopted by the IEM itself. Profitability could not have mattered, as tax-exempt [...]

Let’s Tell the CFTC Where to Go.

Update: I’ve extended the deadline for signing up until 7 p.m. Pacific, Sunday, July 6. Also, I fixed a typo in paragraph 3, changing “denying” to “giving.” (Thanks, Gil!)>
The deadline looms for interested parties to respond to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s request for comments about regulating prediction markets (“event markets” in [...]

Forrest Nelson valids Emile Servan-Schreiber.

Via our good friends at Forecasting Principles
American Scientist:
Forrest Nelson, a professor of economics at the University of Iowa, helped to found the Iowa Electronic Markets. He and his colleagues faced considerable push-back from their university’s lawyers in setting up a real-money exchange, but they persevered and eventually were granted “no-action” letters from the Commodity Futures [...]

The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets

[This article is cross-posted from Major Wager.]
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A recent article in the prestigious academic journal Science (May 16, 2008, Vol 320, p. 877-8) once again makes the case for regulated prediction markets, more commonly known as “betting exchanges” to online gamblers. The authors make the case that such markets are useful in forecasting future events with [...]

CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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SUMMARY:
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets. \1\ For ease of reference and to avoid classification issues, these [...]

The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize real-money prediction markets in the United States of America

The Promise of Prediction Markets – by Kenneth J. Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, John O. Ledyard, Saul Levmore, Robert Litan, Paul Milgrom, Forrest D. Nelson, George R. Neumann, Marco Ottaviani, Thomas C. Schelling, Robert J. Shiller, Vernon L. Smith, Erik Snowberg, Cass R. Sunstein, Paul C. Tetlock, Philip E. Tetlock, [...]

When Markets Beat The Polls – Scientific American Magazine

Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree (an innovative firm providing software for enterprise prediction markets), the Scientific American magazine on prediction markets –”When Markets Beat the Polls”.
Ask me by e-mail to get a copy of the PDF file.
Abstract:
When Markets Beat the Polls; March 2008; Scientific American Magazine; by Gary Stix; 8 Page(s)
In late March 1988 three [...]

When Markets Beat The Polls – Scientific American Magazine

Abstract:
When Markets Beat the Polls; March 2008; Scientific American Magazine; by Gary Stix; 8 Page(s)
In late March 1988 three economists from the University of Iowa were nursing beers at a local hangout in Iowa City, when conversation turned to the news of the day. Jesse Jackson had captured 55 percent of the votes in the [...]

MONDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2007 – PREDICTION MARKETS HAVE JUST ARRIVED.

MATT DRUDGE (WHOSE ONE-PAGE SITE IS MORE POPULAR THAN THE NEW YORK TIMES) CITES A PREDICTION EXCHANGE (BETTING EXCHANGE) FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY.
Traders on Iowa Electronic Markets, which have been predicting elections with surprising accuracy for 20 years, are expecting tight presidential vote next year, with Dem narrowly defeating Republican… Developing…


UPDATE: Then Dudge [...]

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