Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Tag Archives: Media

The Future of Media: 2009

I have watched many times this great video capturing the thoughts of a bunch of Internet celebrities —recorded at New York University (minus Prof Panos).
Does anyone know how to download that damn UStream video? Contact moi, or tweet moi. Thanks.

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Barney Kilgore and Nigel Eccles: Same vision, same combat

The general manager of ProPublica:
Today’s newspaper should be about tomorrow’s events, not yesterday’s. This was probably [Barney] Kilgore’s greatest insight, and it was one he first stated as a columnist in the Journal at the age of 23. Readers, Kilgore realized, turn to newspapers not because they are all fascinated by contemporary history, and want [...]

Prediction markets compute facts and expertise quicker that the mass media do.

Political prediction markets react (with a small delay) to political polls —just like the political experts and the mass media do, too. Hence, in order to discover their true social utility, the prediction markets (which are tools of intelligence) should not be compared to the polls (which are just facts) but to the similar meta [...]

Why InTrade CEO John Delaney, TradeSports acting CEO John Delaney, BetFair CEO David Yu, HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles and NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber should supplicate me to develop my prediction market journalism project

- 200 web visitors (coming from Google) reached my John Edwards post, published yesterday afternoon (ET).
- 10% of them followed my links to the 2 HubDub prediction markets on John Edwards.
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Remember that those web stats count only the web visitors, not the feed subscribers —who are more numerous, and whom I focus more on.
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TAKEAWAY: A [...]

WORLD-WIDE WEB EXCLUSIVE (PLEASE, DO CREDIT “MIDAS ORACLE” FOR THE SCOOP): Here’s what Nigel Eccles drinks when he works on the HubDub mission statement.

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Nigel Eccles:
Quoting HubDub forecasts in news stories about future events will be as common as quoting stock prices in financial stories is today or (in the UK) quoting betting odds for political elections.
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In my view, the only way our good friend Nigel Eccles would succeed would be to get HubDub on television —like our good [...]

Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.

[IMPORTANT NOTE: This present post is critical of one point expressed by Nigel Eccles, but, overall, I like this Scottish guy, and I enjoy HubDub's prediction markets a lot.]
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Nigel Eccles:
Quoting HubDub forecasts in news stories about future events will be as common as quoting stock prices in financial stories is today or (in the UK) [...]

US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.

Caught on video.
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Hear it for yourself:
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“There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”

Dixit Henry Berg’s boss.
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Prediction market journalism can’t be practiced by the “mainstream media”. What we need is a revolution.

The eyes-wide-opened Alexis Perrier notes that many “mainstream media” do talk about political prediction markets, these days.
But that’s a superficial coverage —basically, explaining to morons (surfacing from their Afghan cave) what InTrade does. The real thing is prediction market journalism —and to this day, only Justin Wolfers does practice it (once a month).
To get real [...]

Spot the red line. The future of prediction market journalism is on blogs —not on dead-tree media. (((Well, all dead-tree media have blogs, now.)))

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