P.S: I am not picking on Joe, who is a good web curator, and a nice chap. Just disagree with him (and Andrew Golberg) that prediction market journalism is easy to do. Good prediction market journalism is very hard to do. Requires scoops and pertinent analysis. Scrapping exchange probabilities and aggregating it with re-written news is not enough.
Joe should mention whether there is volume on each market.
Joe should cite BetFair, not InTrade, for any UK-related event.
Joe should be aware of InTrade’-s long history of fucking up contracts and settlements on non-sporting events. (Type “-North Korea missile InTrade”- in Google, and review the various InTrade forums for traces of past fights.)