Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Ken Kittlitz

Linda Rebrovick + Brad Wilson + Robin Hanson + Ken Kittlitz + David Perry = Consensus Point

The 2 things you didn’t know about the other Consensus Point co-founder —the one you never heard about.

Ken Kittlitz, the Consensus Point CTO:

I brew beer at home, and consume it everywhere else.
I’ve played guitar in several alternative bands, all of which quickly achieved obscurity.
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Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise.

Here are short excerpts of the Forrester report on enterprise prediction markets and companies that provide software for enterprise prediction markets.
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The Forrester executive summary:
The “wisdom of crowds” is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively [...]

Where to find advice on how to set up your enterprise prediction markets

Consultants
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Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)

Adam Siegel — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Nathan Kontny

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NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.)

Emile Servan-Schreiber — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Maurice Balick

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Xpree – (U.S.A.)

Mat Fogarty — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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HP Services – HP Labs – (U.S.A.)

Predicting the future –with games — Introductory article
Information Dynamics [...]

The Most Important Discussion On Marketing I Followed This Early Morning

Michael Giberson and Robin Hanson are fond of Inkling Markets’ Godfather, Paul Graham. I am not. I am more interested in Robert Scoble, Loic Le Meur, and Jason Calacanis. With other bloggers, they started a discussion on modern-days public relations.
Here are the good points they made, along with my associated thoughts:
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Loic Le Meur:

A very good [...]

Inkling Markets’ GodFather Speaks Out.

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Taking his propos and applying them to Adam Siegel and Nate Kontny, you’d get that:

The key is Adam Siegel and Nate Kontny’s determination. They refuse to fail.
The key for Nate Kontny was to find out a good co-founder —that was Adam Siegel.
[M]arket is the biggest determinant in the outcome of successful startups. [...] Smart people [...]

The Car Stock Exchange (CSX)

The Car Stock Exchange (CSX)
Powered by David Perry and Ken Kittlitz’s Consensus Point
$1,000,000 (in play money) is given to each new trader. I like when a prediction exchange hands out one million bucks, as opposed to 6 thousands bucks. With one million bucks, you can build a very diversified portfolio of event derivatives.
FAQ
David Perry tells [...]

Prediction Market Management — Foresight Exchange vs. Inkling Markets & HubDub

This is a follow-up post.

Ken Kittlitz (the head of the Foresight Exchange) to me:
You’re correct, the owner of an FX claim must find a different FX player to act as the judge. This is largely to ensure that at least more than one person thinks the claim is worth having.
With Inkling Markets and HubDub, at [...]

Who did best in explaining the prediction markets to the lynching crowd?

After the New Hampshire fiasco, 16 18 people came to defend the prediction markets, so far. So far, the best takes are from:

George Tziralis
Robin Hanson
Jonathan Kennedy
and I’ll give the 4th spot to a combo, mixing takes from John Tierney, Adam Siegel (surprisingly pertinent –I bet he is on a fish diet, post Christmas [...]

Hubbard Decision Research = a Consensus Point client

Douglas W. Hubbard is an “expert in the field of IT value“. He is “the inventor of Applied Information Economics“. If you know what the hell that means in plain English, give me a ring.
Best wishes to David Perry and Ken Kittlitz —and to their competitors (NewsFutures, Inkling Markets, Xpree, etc.) as well ( [...]

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