Tag Archives: John McCain

New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]

Posted on January 10, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →

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Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets

Posted on April 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls: “a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.” Via Mister the Great Research … Continue reading →

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Nate Silver of FiveThirtYeight.com on “The Interview Show” —recorded November 5th, 2008

Posted on April 17, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com on “The Interview Show,” recorded November 5th, 2008: – - Nate Silver on November 3rd, 2008: – Nate Silver on August 21, 2008: -

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Get Rich Quick — InTrade’s new marketing trick

Posted on March 31, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Buy John McCain at the end of 2007 (at around 5), sell high in 2008 —and get rich quick. That is what Bethan and her husband (Jonathan) did. – - Today, InTrade CEO John Delaney is trying to milk out … Continue reading →

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Prediction markets compute facts and expertise quicker that the mass media do.

Posted on January 21, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Political prediction markets react (with a small delay) to political polls —just like the political experts and the mass media do, too. Hence, in order to discover their true social utility, the prediction markets (which are tools of intelligence) should … Continue reading →

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Art Hutchinson’s post-mortem analysis of the 2008 US presidential election.

Posted on December 21, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
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John Tierney responds to Chris Masse —but John Tierney is still mistaken about the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets.

Posted on November 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- My second remark to John Tierney: “I was impressed to see” – You are too easily impressed. The nature of the prediction markets is to aggregate information quickly. Traders are very well informed (they do read Nate Silver and … Continue reading →

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“The Intrade bettors expected Mr. Obama to end up with 364 votes in the Electoral College —one less than he actually got.”

Posted on November 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

My remark to John Tierney: InTrade got it [almost] spot on because they were wrong on Missouri (which was predicted to go for Obama but went to McCain) and wrong too on Indiana (which was predicted to go for McCain … Continue reading →

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Barack Obama 365 — 173 John McCain

Posted on November 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

It’s final. John McCain won Missouri. -

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Does it matter that the prediction markets got the total number of electoral votes for Barack Obama (almost) spot on?

Posted on November 12, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Nigel Eccles is calling HubDub.co.uk his home. Let’s scan his Press release for interesting bits: We’re delighted to be able to offer our UK Hubdubbers their very own UK Edition of Hubdub. Now Hubdubbers based in the UK can … Continue reading →

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