Tag Archives: John McCain
Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets
The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls:
“a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.”
Via Mister the Great Research Scientist David Pennock –who is an indispensable element of the field of prediction markets.
As I blogged many [...]
Nate Silver of FiveThirtYeight.com on “The Interview Show” —recorded November 5th, 2008
Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com on “The Interview Show,” recorded November 5th, 2008:
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Nate Silver on November 3rd, 2008:
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Nate Silver on August 21, 2008:
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Get Rich Quick — InTrade’s new marketing trick
Buy John McCain at the end of 2007 (at around 5), sell high in 2008 —and get rich quick. That is what Bethan and her husband (Jonathan) did.
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Today, InTrade CEO John Delaney is trying to milk out this get-rich-quick story (or a similar enough story). His message: You, too, can get rich quick… —what it [...]
Prediction markets compute facts and expertise quicker that the mass media do.
Political prediction markets react (with a small delay) to political polls —just like the political experts and the mass media do, too. Hence, in order to discover their true social utility, the prediction markets (which are tools of intelligence) should not be compared to the polls (which are just facts) but to the similar meta [...]
John Tierney responds to Chris Masse —but John Tierney is still mistaken about the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets.
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My second remark to John Tierney:
“I was impressed to see”
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You are too easily impressed. The nature of the prediction markets is to aggregate information quickly. Traders are very well informed (they do read Nate Silver and Electoral-Vote.com), and do anticipate quickly. That’s a given. From there, if you want to demonstrate the real social utility [...]
“The Intrade bettors expected Mr. Obama to end up with 364 votes in the Electoral College —one less than he actually got.”
My remark to John Tierney:
InTrade got it [almost] spot on because they were wrong on Missouri (which was predicted to go for Obama but went to McCain) and wrong too on Indiana (which was predicted to go for McCain but went to Obama) —and those 2 opposite mistakes canceled themselves because those 2 states have [...]
Barack Obama 365 — 173 John McCain
It’s final.
John McCain won Missouri.
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Does it matter that the prediction markets got the total number of electoral votes for Barack Obama (almost) spot on?
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Nigel Eccles is calling HubDub.co.uk his home.
Let’s scan his Press release for interesting bits:
We’re delighted to be able to offer our UK Hubdubbers their very own UK Edition of Hubdub. Now Hubdubbers based in the UK can now see news stories that other UK users are predicting on, simply by selecting the UK Edition at [...]
The 2008 US presidential election was “pretty close”, and Nate Silver’s state poll aggregation “pretty much nailed” it.
The pretty good Andrew Gelman:
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This is a (not yet expired) static chart from InTrade on whether the RCP poll aggregation have been accurate:
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