Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Iowa Electronic Markets

The relative advantage of prediction markets (over conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models) is remarkably… SMALL.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 22, 2010 — Leave a Comment

Sharad Goel:
In a new study, Daniel Reeves, Duncan Watts, Dave Pennock and I compare the performance of prediction markets to conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models. Examining thousands of sporting and movie events, we find that the relative advantage of prediction markets is remarkably small. [...]
Given that sports and entertainment markets are [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Professor Thomas Rietz (Iowa Electronic Markets) was so wrong on the usefulness of prediction markets about the 2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago.

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 2, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Chicago Olympic Market Might Have Value, Says Reitz (Chicago Tribune, April 17)
A credible source of information about Chicago’s chances of hosting the 2016 Olympics would have value, says columnist Bill Barnhart. Local real estate developers, hotel operators, employment agencies, vendors of products and services to major events and others have a direct stake in whether [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Google Caffeine upgrades NewsFutures, downgrades the Iowa Electronic Markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 12, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Google Search versus Google Caffeine for “prediction markets”
P.S.: For those who don’t follow Midas Oracle on a daily basis (how dare), Google Caffeine is the future Google Search.
UPDATE: The Inkling Markets website goes on page 2, on Caffeine. Good.
UPDATE: Google Caffeine is off for a few hours.

Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Search Engine Optimization | Also tagged , , , , , ,

How BetFair Works = How BetFair lies about the history of the betting exchange industry

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 12, 2009 — Leave a Comment

How BetFair Works — VIDEO

This BetFair video totally misinforms the public about the history of the betting exchange industry. It actually started in the United States of America, with the Iowa Electronic Markets in 1988, the ForeSight Exchange in 1994, and the Hollywood Stock Exchange in 1996.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, History, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Also tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Sheep and Wolves

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 4, 2009 — Leave a Comment

My post re-publishing the InTrade check received by Wiser Than The Crowd has been mis-interpreted by him. There was nothing about “hating the game” in my post. It was just a reference to the “sheep and wolves” concept floated by Robin Hanson. (See also the Iowa Electronic Markets research on their traders.)
Go reading more research [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , , ,

The Iowa Health Prediction Market is usable for the probability seekers.

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 29, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Iowa Health Prediction Market
Swine Influenza Prediction Markets
I like how they use icons, and the way they display probabilities on that page. It is clear, and we can get the info real quick.
Emile tells me that IHPM was developed with NewsFutures source code, but customized by them.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , ,

Combinatorial Prediction Markets — David Pennock Edition

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 19, 2009 — Leave a Comment

ACM:
[...] Prediction markets are gaining interest because the Internet allows greater worldwide access to them, as well as to the ever-increasing amount of data stored on any topic imaginable (which theoretically allows participants to make more informed predictions, individually and in aggregate). These factors, plus the enormous amount of computing power that will make it [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs | Also tagged , , , , , ,

Box office prediction markets don’t work out at the Iowa Electronic Markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 21, 2008 — 3 Comments

… and so the IEM honcho condemns the Cantor Exchange.
I disagree.
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Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Liquidity | Also tagged , , ,

The University of Iowa — Home of the world-famous Iowa Electronic Markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 16, 2008 — Leave a Comment

… is now a client of NewsFutures.
My good doctor Emile, care to say more?
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Posted in Consulting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged ,

Flu prediction markets can correct Google Flu Trends.

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 15, 2008 — 1 Comment

2 practicing physicians laugh at using collective intelligence for nation-wide flu detection:
[...] Flu Trends tracks almost perfectly with data on influenzalike illnesses that the CDC obtains from doctors’ offices. And as an added bonus, Flu Trends detects outbreaks up to two weeks earlier, when people are still sitting at home sneezing into their keyboards. [...]
But [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Humor, Information Technology, Inventions & Innovations, Science | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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