Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Tag Archives: Iowa Electronic Markets

Sheep and Wolves

My post re-publishing the InTrade check received by Wiser Than The Crowd has been mis-interpreted by him. There was nothing about “hating the game” in my post. It was just a reference to the “sheep and wolves” concept floated by Robin Hanson. (See also the Iowa Electronic Markets research on their traders.)
Go reading more research [...]

The Iowa Health Prediction Market is usable for the probability seekers.

Iowa Health Prediction Market
Swine Influenza Prediction Markets
I like how they use icons, and the way they display probabilities on that page. It is clear, and we can get the info real quick.
Emile tells me that IHPM was developed with NewsFutures source code, but customized by them.

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Combinatorial Prediction Markets — David Pennock Edition

ACM:
[...] Prediction markets are gaining interest because the Internet allows greater worldwide access to them, as well as to the ever-increasing amount of data stored on any topic imaginable (which theoretically allows participants to make more informed predictions, individually and in aggregate). These factors, plus the enormous amount of computing power that will make it [...]

Box office prediction markets don’t work out at the Iowa Electronic Markets.

… and so the IEM honcho condemns the Cantor Exchange.
I disagree.
-

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The University of Iowa — Home of the world-famous Iowa Electronic Markets

… is now a client of NewsFutures.
My good doctor Emile, care to say more?
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Flu prediction markets can correct Google Flu Trends.

2 practicing physicians laugh at using collective intelligence for nation-wide flu detection:
[...] Flu Trends tracks almost perfectly with data on influenzalike illnesses that the CDC obtains from doctors’ offices. And as an added bonus, Flu Trends detects outbreaks up to two weeks earlier, when people are still sitting at home sneezing into their keyboards. [...]
But [...]

Google vs. Prediction Markets — Which of the 2 will detect the flu, first?

An Irish research team hopes to make accurate forecasts of key public health indicators.
University College Cork (UCC) School of Medicine + Intrade
Dr Dylan Evans:
Prediction markets are [specialized], small-scale financial markets operated to predict future events. The idea is that the collected knowledge of many people, each with a different perspective, will be more accurate than [...]

The prediction market industry is not populated by truthful people.

- InTrade CEO John Delaney has not yet clarified the death of TradeSports and the viability of InTrade. – UPDATE
- Professor George Neumann has not yet responded to Jed Christiansen’s objections.

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Is Iowa Electronic Markets’ George Neumann really a gentleman?

George Neumann is ducking the objections that was put under his very nose.
Bad.

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Beware the propaganda sent out by the executives of the prediction exchanges

A Iowa Electronic Markets director has been caught (by a young student) red-hand over-selling the IEM predictive power…!!!…
First of all, thank you for your continued work on the IEM. [MicroSoft Word file] It’s great to see a continued and consistent trader base and methodology.
But I do have to admit that I am very uncomfortable [...]

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