Tag Archives: Iowa Electronic Markets

Wolfy is cited FIVE TIMES in this prediction market story.

Posted on December 1, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Political prediction markets @ Politico –> The sur-excited Wolfy exaggerates the usefulness of the prediction markets. –> ‘Yay, free markets!… Greed is good!… Yep, people respond to incentives!… Markets work!… Capitalism triumphs.’

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged BetFair, bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, IEM, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Justin Wolfers, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, US politics | Leave a comment

Iowa Electronic Markets’s George Neumann on InTrade prediction markets for Lloyd Blankfein resignation: “itâ€™s in bad taste”.

Posted on April 30, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

George, les goÃ»ts et les couleurs, Ã§a ne se discute pas.

Posted in Business, Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Genesis, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged betting markets, Ethics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, George Neumann, George R. Neumann, Goldman Sachs, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Lloyd Blankfein, Lloyd C. Blankfein, prediction markets, resignation, taste | 1 Comment

The relative advantage of prediction markets (over conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models) is remarkably… SMALL.

Posted on January 22, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Sharad Goel: In a new study, Daniel Reeves, Duncan Watts, Dave Pennock and I compare the performance of prediction markets to conventional means of forecasting, namely polls and statistical models. Examining thousands of sporting and movie events, we find that … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged BetFair, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, event derivative markets, forecasting, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, models, polls, prediction markets, Sports, statistical models, statistics, stats | Leave a comment

Professor Thomas Rietz (Iowa Electronic Markets) was so wrong on the usefulness of prediction markets about the 2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago.

Posted on October 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Chicago Olympic Market Might Have Value, Says Reitz (Chicago Tribune, April 17) A credible source of information about Chicago’s chances of hosting the 2016 Olympics would have value, says columnist Bill Barnhart. Local real estate developers, hotel operators, employment agencies, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2016 Summer Olympics, accuracy, Bet, BetFair, bets, betting markets, Chicago, event derivative markets, forecasts, HubDub, International Olympic Committee, InTrade, IOC, Iowa Electronic Markets, Olympics, prediction markets, Predictions, Thomas Rietz | Leave a comment

Google Caffeine upgrades NewsFutures, downgrades the Iowa Electronic Markets.

Posted on August 12, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Google Search versus Google Caffeine for “prediction markets” P.S.: For those who don’t follow Midas Oracle on a daily basis (how dare), Google Caffeine is the future Google Search. UPDATE: The Inkling Markets website goes on page 2, on Caffeine. … Continue reading →

Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Search Engine Optimization | Tagged Google Caffeine, Google Search, inkling markets, Iowa Electronic Markets, NewsFutures, prediction markets, Search Engine Optimization, Search Engines | Leave a comment

How BetFair Works = How BetFair lies about the history of the betting exchange industry

Posted on August 12, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

How BetFair Works — VIDEO This BetFair video totally misinforms the public about the history of the betting exchange industry. It actually started in the United States of America, with the Iowa Electronic Markets in 1988, the ForeSight Exchange in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, History, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged BetFair, betting exchange industry, betting markets, event derivative markets, Foresight Exchange, Great Britain, Hollywood Stock Exchange, Iowa Electronic Markets, prediction markets, United Kingdom, United States Of America | Leave a comment

Sheep and Wolves

Posted on June 4, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

My post re-publishing the InTrade check received by Wiser Than The Crowd has been mis-interpreted by him. There was nothing about “hating the game” in my post. It was just a reference to the “sheep and wolves” concept floated by … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, prediction markets, Research, Robin Hanson, sheep and wolves, traders | Leave a comment

The Iowa Health Prediction Market is usable for the probability seekers.

Posted on April 29, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Iowa Health Prediction Market Swine Influenza Prediction Markets I like how they use icons, and the way they display probabilities on that page. It is clear, and we can get the info real quick. Emile tells me that IHPM was … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Internet Usability, Iowa Electronic Markets, Iowa Health Prediction Market, NewsFutures, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, usability, web design | Leave a comment

Combinatorial Prediction Markets — David Pennock Edition

Posted on March 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

ACM: [...] Prediction markets are gaining interest because the Internet allows greater worldwide access to them, as well as to the ever-increasing amount of data stored on any topic imaginable (which theoretically allows participants to make more informed predictions, individually … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs | Tagged combinatorial prediction markets, CrowdCast, David Pennock, Iowa Electronic Markets, Mat Fogarty, prediction markets, Thomas Rietz, Xpree | Leave a comment

Box office prediction markets don’t work out at the Iowa Electronic Markets.

Posted on December 21, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

… and so the IEM honcho condemns the Cantor Exchange. I disagree. -

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Liquidity | Tagged box office, Cantor Exchange, Hollywood Stock Exchange, Iowa Electronic Markets, prediction markets | 3 Comments

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