Tag Archives: democrats

New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]

Posted on January 10, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds | 1 Comment

Knowns and unknowns of the 2012 presidential elections — [LINK]

Posted on November 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

“We gather information from a variety of sources (some of which are themselves information aggregators), including prediction markets, polls, web search, social activity, games, and historical precedent, and combine it together to produce a Consensus Prediction that is as unbiased, … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics, Prediction Journalism, Resources - References | Tagged 2012 presidential elections, blogs, certainty, David Pennock, David Rothschild, democrats, Internet sites, Politics, Prediction Journalism, probabilities, references, republicans, resources, sites, The Signal, uncertainty, US politics, Yahoo!, Yahoo! News, Yahoo! Research | Leave a comment

InTrade prediction markets “got health care wrong”… — dixit Daniel Gross of Slate, a site I will no longer read.

Posted on March 23, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Slate’s Daniel Gross: Don’t Short Obama Why political futures markets got the health care bill so wrong. By Daniel Gross Posted Monday, March 22, 2010, at 6:05 PM ET It would be very difficult to tote up all the times … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Barack Obama, betting markets, Daniel Gross, democrats, event derivative markets, health care, health care reform, insider trading, InTrade, manipulation, ObamaCare, prediction markets, republicans, Scott Brown, Slate | 4 Comments

Mika Brzezinski: Yes, Everyone at CBS News Was Liberal… Except One.

Posted on October 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

On Morning Joe, Mika Brzezinski says that during her 10 years at CBS News, she knew of one George W. Bush supporter.

Posted in Ethics, Journalism, Politics | Tagged CBS, CBS News, democrats, Joe Scarborough, Journalism, journalists, liberals, mass media, Media, Mika Brzezinski, MSNBC, news media, republicans | Leave a comment

Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets

Posted on April 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls: “a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.” Via Mister the Great Research … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, Collective Intelligence, democrats, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds | 2 Comments

Will FoxNews retract its story about $30M for the salt marsh harvest mouse?

Posted on February 14, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Will FoxNews retract its story about $30M for the salt marsh harvest mouse?

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged democrats, FOX News, GOP, HubDub, Nancy Pelosi, prediction markets, republicans, US politics | Leave a comment

State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction

Posted on November 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities. I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. – Contents a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, state polls, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections

Posted on October 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Folks, – IMPORTANT NOTE: – Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets. – Additionally, the other blog (Midas … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

Posted on September 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: The 2008 US elections thru the prism of the prediction markets — 2008 US presidential and congressional elections — US President Prediction + US Congress Prediction — Barack Obama vs. John McCain

Posted on September 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 electoral map prediction, 2008 US congressional elections, 2008 US elections, 2008 US electoral map prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, IEM, Independents, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John McCain, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, Politics, polls, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US politics, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

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