InTrade floats Dominique Strauss-Kahns life. – [PREDICTION MARKET]

InTrade:

New Prediction Market: Dominique Strauss-Kahn
Tuesday, May 17, 2011

On May 16th 2011 Dominique Strauss-Kahn appeared in New York City Criminal Court and was charged with two counts of a criminal sexual act in the first degree , first-degree attempted rape, first-degree sexual abuse, second-degree unlawful imprisonment, forcible touching, and third-degree sexual abuse. These seven charges are detailed in the criminal court complaint found HERE.

Intrade has opened a market for Dominique Strauss-Kahn to be found guilty of, or plead guilty to, at least one of the charges laid against him. This market can be found under Legal &gt- D. Strauss Kahn.

Market Rules:

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if:

– Dominique Strauss-Kahn is found guilty of at least one of the seven counts in a trial by jury or judge
&#8211- Dominique Strauss-Kahn pleads guilty to at least one of the seven counts

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if (including, but not limited to):

Dominique Strauss-Kahn is found not guilty of all seven counts in a trial by jury or judge
– All counts are dropped
The case is dismissed
– A mistrial is declared (for all counts)
– Dominique Strauss-Kahn pleads guilty to lesser charges only as part of a plea agreement (please note that if Strauss-Kahn pleads guilty to any of the original charges as part of plea agreement the contract will expire at 100)

This market covers only the charges covered in the complaint. Any other criminal or civil cases will not be considered when expiring this market.

The contracts will be paused if possible when a verdict is about to be announced and will be expired as soon as that decision is made public.

The end date on the contract is for indication purposes only. This date may be extended if necessary.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account &#8211- Contract Rule 1.4

Due to the nature of this prediction market contract you are obligated to read Contract Rule 1.7 (Unforeseen Circumstances) and Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection). Intrade may invoke these rules in its absolute discretion if deemed appropriate.

Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract or interpretation of these contract specific rules, related exchange news articles or exchange rules before you place an order to trade.

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Video link.


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Marcus Shea:

Here’s the most likely scenario as to what happened here:

Somebody had a decent short position. Say they had about 65 shares (the volume bars indicate that this was likely a &lt- 100 share transaction, ie, &lt- $5 worth of commissions for Intrade, so mentioning commissions / greed as a motivator is pure ignorance). They wanted to put up a buy of 65 shares at say 5%, so that if the price ever dips that low, they can close their short position and wind up with a nice profit. And then, big mistake, they hit sell instead of buy. The market plummets. Mystery solved. It&#8217-s called human error.

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