Why you should never trust John Battelles opinion on tech – [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

- John Battelle pumped up &#8220-Color&#8221- at inception, and now we have confirmation that it is a lemon.

- John Battelle badmouthed the iPad at inception, and now we know that it is revolutionizing computing.

Wall Street analystss view is too short term.

They are incapable of forecasting a revolution.

And that includes Jason Ruspini.


- Keep in mind that, at inception, Apple also underestimated the iPad numbers. They had to ramp up production, later on.

- See Paul Hewitt&#8217-s comment, below.

Max Keiser weighs in on potential insider trading and hypothetical manipulation in the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade.

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Max says that the political prediction markets are &#8220-routinely manipulated&#8221- and we often see &#8220-price rigging&#8221-&#8230-

9:57 into:

Previously: What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been ahead of the commentary?

Jason Ruspini (who feels that the health care reform proposal might well be adopted) wanna feedback from you, folks.

  1. Which InTrade prediction market(s) has/have been ahead of the Press (rather than the other way around)? What is/are the best (most divergent from the commentary, and correct) InTrade prediction market(s) in people&#8217-s memories?
  2. Do you sense that the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade fits these 2 criteria?

UPDATE: I asked The Brain whether he meant generalist media or political media, and he meant &#8220-generalist&#8221-. That makes all the difference in the world.

Prediction Market Chart


More info on health care reform on Memeorandum.

Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health care reform?

OSCARS 2010: Did Justin Wolfers brag too much and too loudly? – [RELATIVE ACCURACY DEPARTMENT]

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Jason (a Freakonomics reader):

You are giving yourself WAY too much credit. Siskel and Ebert successfully predict these awards 100% year after year. This isn’t a difficult thing to predict. Predicting something like the NCAA tourney, that would be an accomplishment, but if you look at rankings and your prediction market, you will fail just as much as the average bracket.
— Jason