Category Archives: Analysis (Accuracy & Precision)

New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]

Posted on January 10, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds | 1 Comment

What uses for the prediction markets on geopolitical events? — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on September 1, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

–> Well researched and balanced article from London School of Economics’s Matthew Partridge: The intelligence and security community also has mixed views. John F McCreary, the Chief Analysis Officer for KGS Security, who had a senior role at the United … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, London School of Economics, Matthew Partridge, Mike Smithson, predicting, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task — [PAPER]

Posted on September 1, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Comparing face-to-face meetings, nominal groups, Delphi and prediction markets on an estimation task: We conducted laboratory experiments for analyzing the accuracy of three structured approaches (nominal groups, Delphi, and prediction markets) relative to traditional face-to-face meetings (FTF). We recruited 227 … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, predicting, prediction markets | Leave a comment

How prediction markets help forecast consumers’ behaviors — [REPORT]

Posted on August 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Forrester Research’s Roxana Strohmenger has been caught red hand sucking up to our Paul Hewitt. Roxana Strohmenger (e-mail me at chrisfmasse at gmail dot com to get a copy of the report): At the end of the day, a prediction … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Business, Cases, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasting efficiency, forecasting precision, information completeness, markets, precision, predicting, prediction efficiency, prediction markets, prediction precision | 2 Comments

Once again, Robin Hanson exaggerates the usefulness of the prediction markets. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on June 30, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade’s prediction markets on the recent Arab revolutions didn’t bring anything interesting in our understanding of the Middle East. Robin Hanson’s insistence is absurd.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Algeria, Arab countries, Arabs, Bahrain, bets, Betting, betting markets, bettors, Egypt, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasts, InTrade, Libya, Politics, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, Robin Hanson, traders, trading, Tunisia, world politcs, Yemen | Leave a comment

InTrade’s prediction markets on secretive events are just an Irish scam. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on May 7, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: How do we know the Intrade price was not accurate? Well, the raid wasn’t just executed on a whim. It had been planned for quite some time. Therefore, the true likelihood must have been much higher than the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, scam, terrorism, terrorists | Leave a comment

InTrade on the elimination of Osama Bin Laden — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on May 7, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Mike Giberson: How do we know, now, that Intrade’s market price was not an accurate estimate of the probability bin Laden was killed or captured by September 2011? Is an prior estimate of 50 percent likelihood that a tossed coin … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Osama bin Laden, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, Robin Hanson, terrorism, terrorists | 1 Comment

InTrade was not able to predict the elimination of Osama Bin Laden. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Posted on May 4, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

I already blogged about the big fail of the prediction markets. Here’s more from the NYT, Eddy Elfenbein, and Barry Ritholtz.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, Osama bin Laden, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, terrorism, terrorists | 4 Comments

An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media — [PAPER]

Posted on May 3, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media – PDF file.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Journalism, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged columnists, columns, elites, forecasting, forecasts, Journalism, journalists, magazines, Media, news media, newspapers, opinion, opinion makers, politicians, Politics, predicting, Predictions, pundits, US politics | Leave a comment

Why you should never trust John Battelle’s opinion on tech — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Posted on May 3, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

- John Battelle pumped up “Color” at inception, and now we have confirmation that it is a lemon. – John Battelle badmouthed the iPad at inception, and now we know that it is revolutionizing computing.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Inventions & Innovations, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Apple, Apple IPad, Color, forecasts, iPad, John Battelle, post-mortem prediction, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions | Leave a comment

Category Archives: Analysis (Accuracy & Precision)

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