Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets has computed that blogging is important to a small business.

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Inkling Markets:

Here are the jobs we&#8217-re currently looking to fill:

Director of Business Development
Take the reigns to plan and direct Inkling&#8217-s ongoing business development efforts. This includes everything from identifying and evaluating new market opportunities, working on public relations initiatives, forging strategic partnerships, initiating proposals, negotiating contracts with our enterprise clients, and helping to manage existing accounts. Our ideal candidate will have demonstrated the ability to sell software as a service to large enterprise clients or has proven to be effective at launching new product lines and developing new strategic initiatives for at least 5+ years.

Customer Support
Inkling provides technical support to all its clients. From the trader who has a question about their balance to a marketplace administrator who has questions about how to run a market properly, we&#8217-re looking for someone to be our interface for these types of questions. It&#8217-s ok if you don&#8217-t have an intimate understanding of prediction markets now, but our ideal applicant will have shown excellent communication skills, both verbal and written, will have effectively managed multiple work threads at once, and will not be afraid of venturing in to other activities going on in the company, i.e. supporting business development efforts, doing customer outreach and blogging, performing research, and even doing application testing when necessary. We&#8217-re particularly interested in recent college graduates [*] for this position.

But you&#8217-ll notice that he would assign the junior employee (not the business development executive) to blogging.

[*] Yeah, fresh people are cheaper and more flexible.

Inkling Markets Advisory Board… which does not want to tell its name

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Via Daniel Horowitz (Business and Technology Consultant)

Inkling Markets&#8217- Advisory Board (curiously named &#8220-Friends Of Inkling&#8221-):

  1. Bo Cowgill, Google Inc. &#8212- Product developer, expert on decision markets for Google- creator of Google&#8217-s prediction market and co-author of Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence From Google.
  2. George Gendron, Clark University &#8212- Founder and director of the Innovation and Entrepreneurship Program at Clark University- former Editor-in-Chief of Inc. magazine.
  3. Our Michael Giberson. :-D &#8212- His recently updated website states: *Update:* Beginning in August, 2008, Michael Giberson will be joining the faculty of the Center for Energy Commerce in the Rawls College of Business, Texas Tech University.
  4. Bob Johansen, Institute for the Future &#8212- Author of Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present and six other books- Distinguished fellow and former CEO of Institute for the Future (IFTF), a Palo Alto based think tank that does ten-year forecasting.
  5. Jane McGonigal, PhD, renowned gaming developer &#8212- Award-winning innovative game designer, researcher and analyst. MIT Technology Review named her as one of the top 35 innovators changing the world through technology.
  6. Russ Roberts, management consultant and professor, Northwestern University &#8212- A strategy and organization effectiveness consultant and professor at the Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University.
  7. Philip Rosedale, Linden Lab / Second Life &#8212- Founder and chairman of Linden Lab, creator of the acclaimed 3D virtual world Second Life. In 2007, he was listed among Time Magazine&#8217-s 100 Most Influential People in the world.

DIY enterprise prediction markets as revelators of institutional lies

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Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets:


The context of that discussion was talking about allowing people to create their own markets vs. having them only be run by a central entity or only through recommendations by a consulting firm.

We were also talking about the insights you may get by running prediction markets that are not readily apparent in the market results.

The original point was, by allowing people to ask as many questions as possible, the questions may be a signal themselves pointing to something that you didn’t previously know about. If someone asks a question about the probability of a risk factor occurring that you never even considered before, for example. That would never have been uncovered, otherwise, because the “prediction market administrators” wouldn’t even have known to ask.

Excellent article about enterprise prediction markets and Inkling Markets -with a good word for Robin Hanson, who invented MSR.

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Via Daniel Horowitz (Business and Technology Consultant)

Software taps into the zeitgeist to predict the future.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • No Trades (other than at the start) —-> Not a reliable predictor, as of today
  • How you should read Midas Oracle
  • The best prediction exchanges
  • “There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”
  • Hillary Clinton won’t be on the Democratic ticket. — It’s not going to happen. — N-E-V-E-R. — Not a chance. — Period.
  • Suggestion for WordPress — Subscribers’ Capabilities
  • This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are “clueless”.

Inkling Markets GodFather Speaks Out.

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Taking his propos and applying them to Adam Siegel and Nate Kontny, you&#8217-d get that:

  • The key is Adam Siegel and Nate Kontny&#8217-s determination. They refuse to fail.
  • The key for Nate Kontny was to find out a good co-founder &#8212-that was Adam Siegel.
  • [M]arket is the biggest determinant in the outcome of successful startups. […] Smart people [like Adam Siegel and Nate Kontny] will find big markets.

Same things could be said of David Perry and Ken Kittlitz, or Emile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick.

Will Inkling Markets Abandon Ruby On Rails, One Day?

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UPDATE: Rebuttal + More info on Ruby on Rails.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Become “friend” with me on Google E-Mail so as to share feed items with me within Google Reader.
  • Nigel Eccles’ flawed “vision” about HubDub shows that he hasn’t any.
  • How does InTrade deal with insider trading?
  • Modern Life
  • “The Beacon” is an excellent blog published by The Independent Institute.
  • The John Edwards Non-Affair… is making Memeorandum (twice), again.
  • Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff.

STRAIGHT FROM THE DOUBLESPEAK DEPARTMENT: NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber, well known to chase tirelessly the Infidels who dare calling prediction markets their damn polling system, is eager to sell the confusion to his clients and whomever would listen.

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Emile&#8217-s made up a phrase that means nothing (except in his fertile imagination), &#8220-a proprietary prediction market variant&#8220- &#8212-sounds like a red herring to me.

Unlike Consensus Point, Inkling Markets and Xpree, NewsFutures is the only prediction market software vendor not to have adopted Robin Hanson&#8217-s MSR &#8212-a simplified trading technology now in use in most enterprise prediction markets.

Inkling Markets, one year later

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Much, much better. Last year at the same time, in March 2007, I was selectively critical of some of the statements they did put in their (now old) version of their website. Adam Siegel has made good progress in mastering and conveying the problematic of enterprise prediction markets. I think that if Inkling Markets can truly deliver a service that can help companies mitigate business risks, and if they can prove positive results, then their client roll could be multiplied by a factor of 1,000 or so in the next 10 years.

Adam Siegel:

Two years ago the only way to run a prediction marketplace was to roll your own or call a vendor/consultant and have them set up software and run markets for you. It took many weeks, often months. Today with Inkling Markets it take seconds. […]

[#1] Improve forecasting of key performance indicators
Track and raise awareness of key success metrics to identify and mitigate risk factors before it&#8217-s too late.

[#2] Expose product quality problems early
Identify design and production anomalies before a product (physical or virtual) is brought to market to avoid expensive repairs and recalls.

[#3] Predict risk to your supply chain

Run a &#8220-web&#8221- of markets about the risk factors to your supply chain to predict internal and external events that would cause inefficiencies or disruptions.

[#4] Foster a culture of innovation
Determine which new ideas and process improvements will have real business impact vs. the &#8220-nice to have.&#8221-

[#5] Create new interactions with users

Build a dedicated community of users around a marketplace of questions relevant to your business area and brand. […]

Adam Siegel (Inkling Markets CEO) in Forbes:

[Prediction markets] can significantly:

  1. improve forecasts of key performance indicators,
  2. provide a more realistic understanding of project-completion dates,
  3. identify quality-control problems early in the development life cycle,
  4. improve demand forecasts within the supply chain,
  5. and allocate resources more appropriately across research-and-development projects.

[I have edited the formatting of this excerpt.]

The Industry Standard is powered by Consensus Point.

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I&#8217-m free to talk, now.

The Industry Standard is powered by Consensus Point.

The New York Times don&#8217-t print that, but they print that MIT CCI&#8217-s Thomas Malone (branded in the piece as a prediction market evangelizer) has been advising The Industry Standard.

I spotted dozens of news articles on the Industry Standard&#8217-s re-launching. Their spin doctor did a good job. :-D

By the way, speaking of media-managed prediction exchanges, the CNN prediction exchange has some prediction markets with each a total of transactions in the magnitude of 50,000. That&#8217-s awesome. Congrats to Inkling Markets. Mike Giberson (who has become an expert in MSR trading) is one of the traders, probably&#8230-

Prediction market sessions of the OReilly Money-Tech Conference suffer fatally from the absence of the worlds most knowledgeable, most innovative and most trustworthy prediction market expert.

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O&#8217-Reilly Money-Tech Conference – 2008-02-06~07

Predicting the Future of Prediction Markets + Google as Prediction Market

Wharton&#8217-s Justin Wolfers, Google&#8217-s Bo Cowgill, Inkling&#8217-s Adam Siegel, and Sean Park (representing Himself).

No more Robin Hanson. :(

Better to stay home watching a re-play of the December 2006&#8217-s Yahoo! Confab, where Robin Hanson does appear.

Confab Yahoo! on prediction markets – Streaming Video: 100k300k – 2006-12-13


UPDATE: Robin Hanson comments&#8230-

I was invited, but the date conflicted with a SETI conference I&#8217-ll be speaking at.