DIY enterprise prediction markets as revelators of institutional lies

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Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets:


The context of that discussion was talking about allowing people to create their own markets vs. having them only be run by a central entity or only through recommendations by a consulting firm.

We were also talking about the insights you may get by running prediction markets that are not readily apparent in the market results.

The original point was, by allowing people to ask as many questions as possible, the questions may be a signal themselves pointing to something that you didn’t previously know about. If someone asks a question about the probability of a risk factor occurring that you never even considered before, for example. That would never have been uncovered, otherwise, because the “prediction market administrators” wouldn’t even have known to ask.