A usable market is: a market where you exert the least effort for the greatest understanding possible, that allows you to comfortably engage at the level (and in the role) you wish, results in your maximum possible satisfaction, and where … Continue reading
Latest update on the BetFair blog fiasco —- I am alerted today that the BetFair blog has updated its infamous Michigan story with a new compound chart bearing a clearer label. It reads now: Republican nomination – The race so … Continue reading
Thanks to Michael Robb from BetFair, I can show you the charts of the last day of trading on Michigan’-s election day. You can see, on the Republican chart, Mitt Romney (in red) as the Comeback Kid —-starting at 3:00PM … Continue reading
Previously: Squirrel attack prediction market, anyone?? Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse: Super Bowl XLII The Glorious Incertitude Of Sports TradeSports Cost Of Transaction Is it good to have a prediction market melting pot of academics and … Continue reading
Here are the event derivative charts of expired InTrade contracts. [Psstt…- I have high hopes about being able to publish the charts of expired BetFair contracts, too, soon. ] —- —- Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada —- Democratic caucus … Continue reading
Even a prediction market fanboy feeds on the polls —-first and foremost. Steve Dubner, the journalist and co-author of Freakonomics, is, along with his two blog colleagues (Steve Levitt and Justin Wolfers), a strong supporter of the prediction markets. They … Continue reading
BitGravity is the IT provider for the official Apple video feed of MacWorld 2008. Go to its frontpage, and stick there for 3 minutes to watch the awesome animals-in-the-wild video. Let’-s hope that the videos on prediction markets will reach … Continue reading
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on advanced indicators (like polls … Continue reading
Wow. Quand la Chine s’-eveillera…- le monde tremblera. Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse: LinkedIn feed of your network updates = complete crap. Could a statistical reputation system built on top of Amazon’s Mechanical Turk be of any help … Continue reading
Niall O’-Connor: Sadly, from our analysis, the impression that one gets is of a market that is spooked by poll results– driven by stale news- and heavily influenced by gossip and rumour. Questions: Could Lord O’-Connor cite the name of … Continue reading
