Niall O&#8217-Connor:

Sadly, from our analysis, the impression that one gets is of a market that is spooked by poll results– driven by stale news- and heavily influenced by gossip and rumour.

Questions:

1. Could Lord O&#8217-Connor cite the name of a more accurate forecasting tool?
2. Could Lord O&#8217-Connor publish his own track record at predicting the US and British elections?
3. Could Lord O&#8217-Connor give one example of an infallible human institution?
4. Could Lord O&#8217-Connor state publicly whether he believes in knowing the future in advance with 100% accuracy? (If yes, then I&#8217-ll suggest to the CIA to hire him to get Bin Laden.)

Previously: Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.