iPredict New Zealand
iPredict New Zealand is a legal, real-money prediction exchange organizing real-money prediction markets. They can also provide support for enterprise prediction markets.
iPredict New Zealand has been declared a futures dealer by the New Zealand Securities Commission, which means iPredict is treated as an exchange under securities law.
Best wishes to them.
Tutorials
Getting Started
Trading
Short Selling
New England Patriots’- quarterback Tom Brady suffered a season-ending injury during yesterday’-s game with the Kansas City Chiefs. After he left the game and before the extent of the injury was known, the TradeSport’-s contract on whether the Pats would win the Super Bowl fell about 5 points (from 21 to 16). Then at about 6:30pm ET Yahoo Sports posted a story that he was done for the year and the price collapsed. It has now stabilized at about 8, so the injury experiment suggests that a healthy Brady was worth about 13 points in this market.[*] I hope his agent is paying attention.
[*] Possibly understates Brady’-s value since there were already concerns about his health prior to the injury.
link: Tradesports NE Pats market
– InTrade .NET is a play-money prediction exchange while InTrade .COM is a real-money prediction exchange. Is there an automated market maker linking the InTrade .NET prices (or bids) with the InTrade .COM prices?
– Why is it that you ask the consumers of InTrade .NET to sign the terms of use of InTrade .COM, which mentions that: “-2.2.4 You may lose money on Exchange trades.”-? – [Thanks to Deep Throat for that remark.]
– InTrade .NET has a very good charting system. Will the same charting system be implemented at InTrade .COM whose charts are absolutely awful? (See this comparison between the InTrade .COM charts and the InTrade .COM v2 charts.) I insist to say that this should be a priority.
– Will InTrade .NET have chart widgets, just like InTrade .COM and InTrade .COM v2 both have?
– Will InTrade .NET have closed contracts (which are very useful in the accuracy discussions), just like InTrade .COM and InTrade .COM v2 both have?
– Finally, it is stated on the InTrade .COM frontpage (in a text promoting InTrade .NET) that:
When Intrade.net goes out of beta it will become the new default but the current version of Intrade.com will be retained indefinitely.
How should we understand that? Does this mean that you are going to merge your play-money and real-money prediction exchanges? (Might not be a bad idea provided that full information is given on each prediction market.)
UPDATE: Deep Throat tells me that their techies are testing their new user interface on InTrade .NET, which deals with with play money, and then if everything works out well, they may implement the same user interface on InTrade .COM, which deals with real money —-while maintaining the legacy InTrade .COM on a dedicated server, for the nostalgic users.
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Combinatorial Prediction Markets – by Robin Hanson
Video + Slides
Slides from Hanson’-s site – PPT file
Folks, this is great stuff. I may blog about it, again, later on —-if I find time.
You can blog about it on Midas Oracle, if you wish. Or comment on it, just below. Do register yourself.
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#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out…- Intelligence in, intelligence out…-
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
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More Info:
– The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts
– Prediction Market Science
– The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
– All The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets
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#2. Probabilistic Predictions = Charts Of Prediction Markets
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Put your mouse on your selected chart, right-click, and open the link in another browser tab to get directed to the prediction market page of your favorite exchange.
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InTrade
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2008 US Electoral College
2008 Electoral Map Prediction = InTrade – Electoral College Prediction Markets = Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland = electoralmarkets.com
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– This is a dynamic chart, which is up to date. Click on the image, and open the website in another browser tab to get the bigger version.
Prediction market analyst Lance Fortnow in an e-mail to me:
Right now the electoral college markets are tracking the polls pretty closely. I think we’-ll see some divergence when we get close to the election since the polls can’-t keep up. In past elections the markets were much better than the polls within a few days before the election (though not on election day itself which has too many rumors).
Other thoughts:
– There is a long-shot bias —-states which are above 85% (for one candidate or the other) reflect a probability closer to 100%.
– The state markets are strongly correlated. There is a small but non-trivial chance that many states will be way off this year. And then people will be reluctant to trust the electoral college markets in the future.
So, I have (at least) one answer to my series of provocative questions: Electoral college prediction markets are more useful than the state polls towards the very end of the presidential campaign (but not on Election Day). Interesting. Thanks.
PS: The discussion about this post goes on in the comment area of another post.