Category Archives: Resources References

CraigList [INTERSECTION SYMBOL HERE] Prediction Markets

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Any heavy user of CraigList on Midas Oracle? Any idea on how to use CraigList to fortify the prediction market community?

E-mail me, or put a comment below. I&#8217-m curious&#8230-

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Got the idea after reading Jeremy Zawodny&#8230-

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 15 days. We have 15 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 16 days. We have 16 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • Brand-new scientific report certifies that starting off the Large Hadron Collider is NOT going to destroy the Earth. Glad to hear that. It means that any bets entertained on the LHC issue will be able to be resolved and winnings to be collected in the end.
  • Small Business = GOOD — Big Business = BAD
  • The letter David Pennock will never send out —well, we hope.
  • Monitor the web traffic of TradeSports.com, InTrade.com, BetFair.com, Betdaq.com, NewsFutures.com, HubDub.com, etc. —thanks to Google Trends.
  • Here’s the way to promote innovation for entry-order and analysis software packages —separate the 2 functions.

IIFs SIG on Prediction Markets

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http://www.marketsforforecasting.com/ now redirects to:

http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/PM/

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I have listed Andreas Graefe&#8217-s sub-website everywhere &#8212-and I have also put the link here, at the bottom of our blog sidebar.

(I&#8217-m too good, I know. :-D )

Best wishes to him.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The best research papers on prediction markets
  • 2008 Electoral Map
  • American Enterprise Institute’s Center For Regulatory And Market Studies (Policy Markets)
  • Science
  • Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
  • Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?
  • “Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.”

The best blogs on prediction markets

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CFM: Blogs

Midas Oracle: Links

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Send me your blog URL, if you write on prediction markets &#8212-and I&#8217-ll Include it in the list (maybe :-D ).

The new kid on the block is The Quantified Pundit. Great blog name. :-D Bookmark it, and subscribe to its site feed. I recommend it highly.

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  • Andrew &#8220-Bert&#8221- Black — Category: &#8220-BetFair&#8220-
  • Ask Markets —
  • Ashish Singal —
  • Betdaq Exchange Views [U.K.] —
  • Betting @ BetFair [U.K.] —
  • Betting Market [U.K.] —
  • Bo Cowgill —
  • Caveat Bettor —
  • Chris Hibbert — Category: &#8220-prediction markets&#8220-
  • Consensus Point — Decommissioned.
  • Freakonomics — Category: &#8220-prediction markets&#8220-
  • George Tziralis [Greece] —
  • HubDub —
  • Inkling Markets —
  • Jed Christiansen —
  • Marginal Revolution —
  • Media Predict —
  • Midas Oracle .COM – Group Blog on Prediction Markets For People —
  • Midas Oracle .NET – Group Blog on Prediction Markets For Enterprises —
  • Midas Oracle .ORG – Group Blog on Prediction Markets For All —
  • Mike Linksvayer — Category: &#8220-prediction markets&#8220-
  • NewsFutures —
  • Odd Head — Category: &#8220-prediction markets&#8220-
  • Overcoming Bias — Category: &#8220-prediction markets&#8220-
  • Political Betting [U.K.] —
  • PopSci PPX —
  • Reality Markets —
  • Risk Markets And Politics —
  • The Sim Exchange —
  • Usable Markets — Category: &#8220-prediction markets&#8220-
  • Washington Stock Exchange —

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Quite a small list.

Maybe, in the next update, I&#8217-ll add The Washington Wire from the WSJ. They seem to go the Wolfers route. WIll see.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • NewsFutures powers the prediction exchange of a prestigious French science magazine.
  • DIY enterprise prediction markets as revelators of institutional lies
  • So far, the Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA) is a shallow organization run by a bunch of delirium-tremens incompetents. — It sounds too European, too French. — Yeah, it’s too French. — All words and no actions. — Hot air in a golden-painted balloon ready to burst.
  • The best presentations from the world’s best conference on enterprise prediction markets —ever
  • John Delaney and Mark Davies’ P.R. tactics suck.
  • Predictify is about building track records of human predictors.
  • Prediction & Decision Markets — Robin Hanson Edition

Got that hardcover book on my desk, thanks to Steve Roman. Its out in paperback form, today -for small people like you (the readers), who are not famous on the Web, and hence dont get all the free gigs that big bloggers get for free. (((I pity you.)))

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Lawsuit aiming at compelling the office of the United States trade representative to produce a copy of its compensation settlement with the European Union over the United States’ withdrawal of gambling services from the General Agreement on Trade in Services.
  • Iraq War = “not necessary”, “a serious strategic blunder” — US News Media = “complicit enablers” in the manipulation of the public (“the propaganda campaign”) — George W. Bush turned away “from candor and honesty when those qualities were most needed.”
  • JASON RUSPINI’S CROCKERY: The Brain states forcefully that they are not “event futures”, but “binary options”. Still, as soon as he premieres prediction markets on tax rates at InTrade, he calls them “tax futures” —of course.
  • Tasmania’s Prime Minister who licenced BetFair Australia departs “abruptly”.
  • Do not pay any attention to Jason Ruspini’s legal ramblings on Midas Oracle. — Do monitor Jason Ruspini’s portfolio of event derivatives, instead.
  • Meet Tom W. Bell, the man who knows the legal difference between “excluded commodities” and “exempt commodities”, and the legal difference between “contracts” and “notes” —but still can’t get himself a gravatar.
  • WEB EXCLUSIVE: What Vernon Smith told the CFTC about the social utility of the event derivative markets —the so-called “prediction markets”

Betfair Unleashed

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No GravatarBetfair Unleashed

A new betting blog by Julian Moors (a &#8220-famous unknown&#8221-, as my dad used to say, when we met any stranger).

Best wishes to&#8230- whoever &#8220-Julian Moors&#8221- could be. :-D

RSS feed (whose URL is messed with, on the site): http://www.betfairunleashed.com/feed/

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Please, send me the URLs of good blogs on TradeSports, InTrade, BetFair, Betdaq, MatchBook, HedgeStreet, TradeFair, NewsFutures, HubDub, Inkling Markets, Hollywood Stock Exchange, or else.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Collective Error = Average Individual Error – Prediction Diversity
  • When gambling meets Wall Street — Proposal for a brand-new kind of finance-based lottery
  • The definitive proof that it’s presently impossible to practice prediction market journalism with BetFair.
  • The Absence of Teams In Production of Blog Journalism
  • Publish a comment on the BetFair forum, get arrested.
  • If I had to guess, I would say about 50 percent of the “name pros” you see on television on a regular basis have a negative net worth. Frightening, I know.
  • You can’t measure the usefulness of a system by how many resources it consumes.

Do you put your prediction market videos on the Web? Do you twitter on prediction markets?

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No GravatarFolks,

To increase my ultra-comprehensive list of good links on prediction markets (which generously encompasses economist Michael &#8220-Barbecue&#8221- Giberson), I am seeking:

  1. Web spots publishing videos on predictions markets (video blogs, etc.)-
  2. Prediction market people (like this Greek guy) who are managing a Twitter mini-blog (as opposed to a full blog).

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Send me URLs, please.

Thanks. Will make up to you.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • REBUTTAL: SalesForce, StarBucks and Dell demonstrate that enterprise prediction markets as intra-corporation communication tools (as opposed to forecasting tools) are overhyped by the prediction market software vendors and a little clique of uncritical courtisans.
  • Comments are often more interesting than the post that ignited them.
  • Harvard fella says prediction markets are doomed.
  • How should prediction market firms (e.g., InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair) deal with Blogosphere’s criticism?
  • BetFair’s future bet-matching logic
  • If Midas Oracle were to meet, would we use Huddle, and why?
  • WORLD’S SUCH A SMALL PLACE: Smarkets meet HubDub.

Alpha Thesis

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No Gravatar&#8230- Is The Blog Of The Day.

Good prediction market journalism.

Best wishes for your blog, Ashish Singal.

Come visit us on Midas Oracle whenever you want.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Red Herring’s list of the top 100 North-American high-tech startups includes Inkling Markets —but not NewsFutures, Consensus Point, or Xpree.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf explains the prediction markets to the countryland people.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.
  • Time magazine interview the 2 BetFair-Tradefair co-founders, and not a single time do they pronounce the magic words, “prediction markets”.
  • One Deep Throat told me that this VC firm might have been connected with the Irish prediction exchange, at inception.
  • BetFair Rapid = BetFair’s standalone, local, PC-based, order-entry software for prediction markets
  • Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

The BetFair betting blog = a piece of shit

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No Gravatar[image removed &#8212- see comments]

Via Niall O’Connor of Betting Market, the official BetFair betting blog.

#1. Unusable, unconventional layout and interface.

#2. Unsigned, crappy content.

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Kind of reinforce my view that a firm cannot become a media company unless it partners or buys out a journalistic outlet. Not everybody can be a journalist. It requires special skills.

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NEXT: How can BetFair, the world&#8217-s market leader, produce such a piece of ****?

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Collective Error = Average Individual Error – Prediction Diversity
  • When gambling meets Wall Street — Proposal for a brand-new kind of finance-based lottery
  • The definitive proof that it’s presently impossible to practice prediction market journalism with BetFair.
  • The Absence of Teams In Production of Blog Journalism
  • Publish a comment on the BetFair forum, get arrested.
  • If I had to guess, I would say about 50 percent of the “name pros” you see on television on a regular basis have a negative net worth. Frightening, I know.
  • You can’t measure the usefulness of a system by how many resources it consumes.