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The IFTF X2 Project

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[…] X2 will identify major trends and disruptions in science, technology, and the practice of science over the next twenty years and their impacts on the larger society.

X2 will utilize an open-source web platform that will help individuals and organizations track and analyze global trends in science and technology. The project will employ bottom-up forecasting methods, making use of the collective intelligence of people with different backgrounds, domains of expertise, and geographic locations to synthesize larger patterns and trends. […]

http://www.sciencex2.org/

Flu prediction markets can correct Google Flu Trends.

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2 practicing physicians laugh at using collective intelligence for nation-wide flu detection:

[…] Flu Trends tracks almost perfectly with data on influenzalike illnesses that the CDC obtains from doctors&#8217- offices. And as an added bonus, Flu Trends detects outbreaks up to two weeks earlier, when people are still sitting at home sneezing into their keyboards. […]

But if officials monitored only Flu Trends, it would be difficult to sort the signal from the noise —in addition to losing critical details on who is sick. Things besides an actual flu outbreak can cause people to search the Internet for flu information. We would imagine that Flu Trends would spike on the release date for a flu-related movie —maybe Outbreak 2: Electric Booga-Flu. And what happens if a pandemic flu scare hits the nightly news? Flu Trends&#8217- ability to detect when the real pandemic hits will be obliterated when people, including those without symptoms, start to search the Internet. Monitoring drugstore sales has the same issue: A jump in cold-medicine sales may mean a flu outbreak, but it could also mean that CVS is running a sale or that flu fear is causing people to stock their medicine cabinets. […]

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They end their articles saying that Google can&#8217-t cure the flu, anyway. [???]

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The response to the objections they jot down in the 2nd paragraph above is easy:

  • Informed by all other means, the event derivative traders can determine whether the spikes in Google Flu Trends are due to abnormalities (see the 2nd paragraph in the excerpt above) or due to the real spreading of influenza.
  • Hence, the flu prediction markets have a much higher social utility than Google Flu Trends. Chris Masse said so.
  • David Pennock, go writing another research paper about that.
  • History will retain that David Pennock was research scientist under Chris Masse&#8217-s reign in the field of prediction markets.

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Google Flu Trends

Iowa Health Prediction Market

The “predict flu using search” study you didn’t hear about – by our good Doctor David Pennock

BBC

New York Times

WSJ Health blog

University College Cork (UCC) School of Medicine + Intrade

Dylan Evans&#8217- website

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Previously: #1 + #2 + #3

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People, dont pay real money to attend the San Francisco vendor mini-conference on prediction markets.

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I have gotten many e-mails from business people asking me whether they should attend the San Francisco vendor mini-conference on prediction markets in January 2009. My advice: Don&#8217-t go. Don&#8217-t pay a single cent for it.

  1. It is basically a vendor fair. Four software vendors are lined up. (I am told they have to fork over about $800 to take the stage.) They will over-sell the prediction markets and feed you with promotional material.
  2. The conference organizer is commissioned by some of those vendors. He is biased from the toes to the hair.
  3. Only an idiot would pay $300+ to listen to promotional material. Don&#8217-t. Never pay to listen to salesmen.
  4. One scholar will feed you with highly theoretical material, which you can get for free on Midas Oracle &#8212-99% of which you don&#8217-t need anyway.
  5. One scholar has never published anything on prediction markets &#8212-as far as I know (I could be wrong).
  6. One Robin Hanson fanboy and prediction market enthusiast will pump up the enterprise prediction markets. Never trust the overly enthusiast people. Never trust people who belong to one school of thought. Do trust, instead, the independent minds who use the scientific approach.
  7. Do listen, instead, to the thinkers who have nothing to sell you.

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Still no embedded YouTube videos to be seen in my feed reader(s).

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Problem with my WordPress 2.7, my embedded YouTube videos, and my feed reader(s).

Still a mystery.

No word yet from the WordPress authorities.

A tipster tells me that the plugin &#8220-Smart YouTube&#8221- solves the problem.

I won&#8217-t install the plugin before I get reliable info from the WordPress authorities.

UPDATE: If I embed the YouTube video in the &#8220-HTML&#8221- area, and don&#8217-t click on &#8220-Visual&#8221- before publishing, all is fine &#8212-the YouTube video will end up in the feed reader.

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The 2009 economic recession is perfect timing for creating your prediction market company.

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Michael Arrington:

[T]he tremendous opportunities that arise in down markets. Engineers are much easier to hire. The press have fewer startups and stories to divide their attention. The pond certainly gets smaller, but there are far fewer people fishing, too. For most startups, this is a time to blossom.

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On other blogs than Midas Oracle, the Askimet anti-spam technology actually blocks legitimate comments from honorable people, and, hence, blocks free speech on the Internet.

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I am one of those &#8220-honorable people&#8221- who get caught in Askimet&#8217-s net. Any blog running Askimet will refuse any of my comments. I have never submitted any illegitimate comment, though.

It&#8217-s a big scandal.

Askimet = Shit.

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Problem with my WordPress 2.7, my embedded YouTube videos, and my feed reader(s).

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In my last post, I have embedded 7 YouTube videos on prediction markets (featuring Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures). While they work fine on the post within my web browser, they can&#8217-t be seen when that same post is displayed within a feed reader (such as Google Reader or Sage).

At this moment, I have no idea where the problem comes from. I would blame WordPress 2.7. (All was fine with the previous versions of WordPress.) Let me investigate that technical issue. I will post an update to this post, later on.

UPDATE: Still a mystery. A tipster tells me that the plugin &#8220-Smart YouTube&#8221- solves the problem.

UPDATE: If I embed the YouTube video in the &#8220-HTML&#8221- area, and don&#8217-t click on &#8220-Visual&#8221- before publishing, all is fine &#8212-the YouTube video will end up in the feed reader.

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wp-2-7-youtube

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Collective Intelligence – Prediction Markets – NewsFutures

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Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures

YouTube videos:

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1/2

PART 1: EVIDENCE OF PREDICTION MARKET ACCURACY

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2/2

PART 2: WHY PREDICTION MARKETS ARE ACCURATE

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Q&amp-A1

Q&#038-A 1: Aren’t political prediction markets just following the polls?

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Q&amp-A2

Q&#038-A 2: Why did prediction markets fail to predict the lack of weapons of mass destruction in Irak?

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Q&amp-A3

Q&#038-A 3: Would market predictions still be accurate if everyone believed them?

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Q&amp-A4

Q&#038-A 4: Is Democracy ready for prediction markets?

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Q&amp-A5

Q&#038-A 5: How can trading prices translate into probabilities if individual traders don’t trade accordingly?

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In-House Vs. Outsourcing

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BetFair Predicts is paying a social media consultant.

The Hollywood Stock Exchange / Cantor Exchange is paying a community service provider.

HubDub&#8217-s community services are performed in house.

Should community building be a core constituent of a prediction exchange? I&#8217-d say &#8220-yes&#8221-. It is not something to outsource.

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Previously: Cantor Exchange

Previously: Should the Hollywood Stock Exchange become a real-money betting exchange? – 2007-10-04

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At the contrary, mister Kirtland.

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Contra Alex Kirtland, I believe that the development of play-money prediction exchanges using MSR (like HubDub or AskMarkets), which popularity is now proved, is much more important news than stuff about CFTC-regulated, real-money prediction exchanges (like HedgeStreet or the Cantor Exchange), which popularity is uncertain.

Inkling Markets, HubDub and AskMarkets have been techcrunched &#8212-that has not been the case for HedgeStreet or the Cantor Exchange. Practically, that means a great injection of PageRank, hundreds if not thousands of bookmarks, and plenty of new users. That&#8217-s not what I call being &#8220-overshadowed&#8221-.

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