Try “-prediction markets”- and “-collective forecasting”-.
Gimme Wolfram instead.
[Wolfram] Alpha, while imperfect, is ready to do all sorts of useful things right now. Squared feels more like the initial proof of concept for something that may take years to get right.
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Justin Wolfers has escaped the Overcoming Bias purge, it seems. Justin Wolfers’-s 4 posts (published in 2007) remain archived on what is now Robin Hanson’-s QUOTE personal blog UNQUOTE. By contrast, Eliezer Yudkowsky’-s posts written for Overcoming Bias now redirect to locations at Less Wrong.
Justin Wolfers now blogs at Freakonomics (which is under the New York Times umbrella). By comparison to Overcoming His Bias, Freakonomics is a real group blog success. Years later after his creation, Freaknomics has a high degree of participation by his co-bloggers, and some brand-new guest bloggers were recently invited. Freakonomics is a sustainable group blog which develops one unique thematic —-economics. Sorry to burst our Master Of All Universes’-s bubble, but Freakonomics is the case-in-point that debunks the hypothesis that says that “-blogs are best defined not by topic but by lead author personalities”-.
As for Midas Oracle, who cares about Chris Masse’-s personality, as long as one gets his/her prediction market dope on a daily basis?
UPDATE:
Chris, Eliezer was not “purged.” He requested to have his old posts moved to Less Wrong. No one else has made any similar request.
Eliezer was not “expelled”– he choose to move in order to build a community at Less Wrong using fancy comment karma software. The folks who wrote software for his new site also wrote the code at my new site.
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– The people that Robin Hanson expelled from his blog are coding their own blogging software.
– As for Our Master Of All Universes, he codes his own WordPress theme (overcomingbias.com/wp-content/themes/overcoming-bias/) and inserts his own hacks into it.
UPDATE:
Chris, Eliezer was not “purged.” He requested to have his old posts moved to Less Wrong. No one else has made any similar request.
Eliezer was not “expelled”– he choose to move in order to build a community at Less Wrong using fancy comment karma software. The folks who wrote software for his new site also wrote the code at my new site.
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Did you lose money betting on InTrade, lately? Well, your money ended up in the pocket of that guy:
UPDATE: There was nothing about “-hating the game”- in my post. It was just a reference to the “-sheep and wolves”- concept floated by Robin Hanson. (See also the Iowa Electronic Markets research on their traders.)
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Well, at least, one aspect of the prediction markets.
Uniited States Patent Application:
CONTINUOUS BETTING INTERFACE TO PREDICTION MARKET
Abstract
A user participates in trading securities in a prediction market which represent different outcomes of an event, using an interface which allows the user to understand a trade in terms of a bet. The interface also allows the user to explore different bet amounts while receiving feedback on potential payoffs in real time. In one approach, a tool is used which is moved in one direction by the user to indicate a larger trade for an outcome, or in the opposite direction to indicate a larger trade against the outcome. A bet for an outcome can be translated into a purchase of a corresponding security which represents the outcome. A bet against a particular outcome can be translated into a purchase of securities which represents all other outcomes. The user interfaces hides complexities of the market from the user while surfacing relevant information.
Inventors: BERG- HENRY G.- (Redmond, WA) – PROEBSTING- TODD A.- (Redmond, WA)
I won’-t comment on this, because I believe that the US patent system is broken, generally speaking.
MicroSoft’-s Steve Ballmer:
My parents thought I’-d lost my mind to drop out of Stanford Business School to go to a company that makes software. My dad said “-what the heck is software?”- and my mother said “-why the heck would a person need a computer?”-.
Add Logo to Admin 1.3.3
» c.bavota (url)
Adds a custom logo to your site’s Admin header and your login page.
All in One SEO Pack 1.4.91
» Michael Torbert (url)
Out-of-the-box SEO for your WordPress blog. Options configuration panel | Donate | Support
Automatic Timezone 1.7.1
» Otto (url)
Automatically sets the timezone offset for Daylight Savings Time.
Blog Metrics 1.2.6
» Joost de Valk (url)
Provides blog metrics based on the blog metrics Avinash Kaushik proposed in this post, now with a widget!
Chunk Urls for WordPress 2.0
» whoo (url)
This plugin shorten urls in comments so that they won’t break your site.
Clean Options 1.1.9
» Mittineague (url)
finds orphaned options and allows for their removal from the wp_options table
Dagon Design Sitemap Generator 3.15
» Dagon Design (url)
Generates a fully customizable sitemap
Diagnosis 1.2.1
» Niklas Lindblad (url)
Add a debugging page at Dashboard >> Diagnosis
Disable Revisions 1.1
» Slaver (url)
Disable revision functions in WordPress and delete all entries of revisions in database. It is extremely important to back up your database before install this plugin.
Do Follow 3.1
» Denis de Bernardy (url)
The Do Follow plugin removes the nofollow attribute that WordPress adds in comments.
Email Users 3.1.6
» Vincent Prat (email : [email protected]) (url)
Allows the site editors to send an e-mail to the blog users. Credits to Catalin Ionescu who gave me some ideas for the plugin and has made a similar plugin. Bug reports and corrections by Cyril Crua and Pokey.
Exec-PHP 4.9
» Sören Weber (url)
Executes <?php ?> code in your posts, pages and text widgets.
FD Word Statistics 1.2
» John Watson (url)
Computes Gunning-Fog, Flesch, and Flesch-Kincaid readability indexes about posts as they are edited for the purpose of improving their readability.
GeneralStats 0.90
» Bernhard Riedl (url)
Counts the number of users, categories, posts, comments, pages, links, tags, link-categories, words in posts, words in comments and words in pages.
Google Analyticator 4.1
» Spiral Web Consulting (url)
Adds the necessary JavaScript code to enable Google’s Analytics. After enabling this plugin visit the settings page and enter your Google Analytics’ UID and enable logging.
Google Search widget 1.0
» Automattic, Inc. (url)
Adds a sidebar widget to let users search your site with Google.
Google XML Sitemaps 3.1.2
» Arne Brachhold (url)
This plugin will generate a sitemaps.org compatible sitemap of your WordPress blog which is supported by Ask.com, Google, MSN Search and YAHOO. Configuration Page
OpenID 3.2.2
» DiSo Development Team (url)
Allows the use of OpenID for account registration, authentication, and commenting. Also includes an OpenID provider which can turn WordPress author URLs into OpenIDs.
Restore Exact Time 1.0.2
» Nick Ohrn (url)
Changes the date columns in the post and page interfaces to display exact times that a post or page was published.
Reveal IDs for WP Admin 1.1.2
» Oliver Schlöbe (url)
WordPress 2.5+ only. Reveals hidden IDs in Admin interface that have been removed with WordPress 2.5 (formerly known as Entry IDs in Manage Posts/Pages View for WP 2.5). See Options Page for options and information.
Role Manager 2.2.3
» Thomas Schneider (url)
Role Management for WordPress 2.0.x, up to 2.6.x..
RSS Footer 0.8.2
» Joost de Valk (url)
Allows you to add a line of content to the end of your RSS feed articles.
SABRE 0.8.1
» Didier Lorphelin (url)
Simple Anti Bot Registration Engine
ShareThis 3.0.1
» ShareThis (url)
Let your visitors share a post/page with others. Supports e-mail and posting to social bookmarking sites. Configuration options are here. Questions on configuration, etc.? Make sure to read the README.
Sobek`s Posts in Category 1.9
» Lukasz Sobek (url)
Displays a list of the posts in one or more categories in virtually any way you want. Please read the plugin page for installation and usage.
SpamViewer 1.6.3
» Frank Bueltge (url)
Delete or rescure spam entries in your database, drawn from entries from the Plugin Trackback Validator and Spam entries in your WordPress Table comments.
TweetSuite 0.6
» Dan Zarrella (url)
A WordPress Plugin to integrate Twitter and WordPress
User Locker 1.0
» Daniel Frużyński (url)
This plugin locks user account after given number of incorrect login attempts.
WordPress Gravatars 2.7.1
» Rune Gulbrandsøy (url)
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WP-DBManager 2.40
» Lester ‘GaMerZ’ Chan (url)
Manages your WordPress database. Allows you to optimize database, repair database, backup database, restore database, delete backup database , drop/empty tables and run selected queries. Supports automatic scheduling of backing up and optimizing of database.
WP-Options-Manager 0.05
» Marc Schieferdecker (url)
With this plugin you can browse, delete and debug the entrys of your WordPress options database table. Important: Only the administrator user should have access to this plugin and should know what he is doing!
WP-phpMyAdmin 2.10.3
» Roland Rust, Christopher Hwang (url)
Provides phpMyAdmin from the WordPress admin console
WP-PluginsUsed 1.40
» Lester ‘GaMerZ’ Chan (url)
Display WordPress plugins that you currently have (both active and inactive) onto a post/page.
WP Greet Box 5.0.1
» Thaya Kareeson (url)
Show a different message to your visitor depending on which site they are coming from. For example, you can ask Digg visitors to Digg your post, Google visitors to subscribe to your RSS feed, and more! Best of all, this plugin is compatible with various WordPress cache plugins.
WP Super Cache 0.9.4.3
» Donncha O Caoimh (url)
Very fast caching plugin for WordPress.
Yahoo! Search widget 1.0
» Automattic, Inc. (url)
Adds a sidebar widget to let users search your site with Yahoo!.
As I told you the other day, I am very impressed by P2, a new interactive WordPress theme. I have not selected it for Midas Oracle (I chose WP FrameWork), but I think that P2 will influence a lot of other themes.
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