Share This:
Matt Rach – Death is a Better Choice.
Reply
Author Archives: admin
A cute sticker for your Apple Macintosh
Lets use Google Wave to interact with all the prediction market fanboys.
- chrisfmasse
- ++++++AT++++++
- googlewave
- )))DOT(((
- -com-
I am trying to learn how to use Google Wave. First impression: Very weird.
For the Google Wave invite, I thank Martin Frindt of http://www.crowdpark.de/.
UPDATE: Jed says I will get the invite wave in a few days. Patience. I will then be able to invite friends of mine.
Boycott the $400 vendor conference on prediction markets.
I renew my call for boycotting the $400 vendor conference on prediction markets. Don’-t pay $400 to listen to prediction market software vendors. (They should pay you $400, rather, to listen to their marketese.) They highly exaggerate the usefulness of prediction markets (and enterprise prediction markets, in particular). They don’-t have a single use case to demonstrate their usefulness. There is no way you will get any R.O.I. out of those vendor conferences held in a phone booth.
Plus, the SF organizer of these conferences is a guy that has the detestable habit of hiding his identity under many pseudonyms (a female secretary, a “-legal assistant”-, a foundation director, etc.). This guy is a mythomaniac. Stay away.
Read Paul Hewitt’-s blog, instead. It is free —-and it tells the truth.
Finland + Australia
Finland:
Australia:
Midas Oracle is worth $1 million.
– PaidContent has a monthly audience of 250,000.
– Guardian Media bought PaidContent for $30 million $6.5 million.
– Midas Oracle has had 41,000 visitors the last 30 days.
– Midas Oracle’-s audience is one sixth of PaidContent’-s audience.
– So, Midas Oracle is worth one sixth of $6.5 million —-that’-s $1.1 million.
TRAFIGURA: The Guardian was served with a gagging order forbidding it from reporting parliamentary business.
Nobel Prize for Economics 2009 – Prediction Accuracy
Both the bookmakers and the prection markets are utterly useless in trying to divine who will get the Nobel prize of economics.
Below is the 2009 prediction post-mortem:
1. Bookmakers
Ladbrokes’-s probabilities (odds) for the 2009 Nobel prize in economics:
Eugene Fama 2/1
Paul Romer 4/1
Ernst Fehr 6/1
Kenneth R. French 6/1
William Nordhaus 6/1
Robert Barro 7/1
Matthew J Rabin 8/1
Jean Tirole 9/1
Martin Weitzman 9/1
Chris Pissarides 10/1
Dale T Mortensen 10/1
Xavier Sala-i-Martin 10/1
Avinash Dixit 14/1
Jagdish N. Bhagwati 14/1
Robert Schiller [sic] 14/1
William Baumol 16/1
Martin S. Feldstein 20/1
Christopher Sims 25/1
Lars P. Hansen 25/1
Nancy Stokey 25/1
Peter A Diamond 25/1
Thomas J. Sargent 25/1
Dale Jorgenson 33/1
Paul Milgrom 33/1
Oliver Hart 40/1
Bengt R Holmstrom 50/1
Elhanan Helpman 50/1
Ellinor Ostrom 50/1
Gene M Grossman 50/1
Karl-Goran Maler 50/1
Oliver Williamson 50/1
Robert B Wilson 50/1
2. Betting Pools
Here is the betting in the Nobel pool at Harvard:
Robert Barro -10%
John Taylor –- 8%
Paul Milgrom –- 8%
Jean Tirole –- 6%
Oliver Williamson –- 6%
Martin Weitzman –- 6%
Eugene Fama –- 5%
Richard Thaler –- 5%
Lars Hansen –- 4%
Paul Romer –- 4%
3. Prediction Markets
Previously: Nobel Prize for Economics 2009 Predictions
Share This:
What happened to Betfairs Arnault card?
Bernard Arnault is the 14th richest person in the world with an estimated net worth of $16.5 billion US dollars. (Forbes). In 2007, Arnault was listed among Time magazine’-s 100 Most Influential People in The World. No bad thing for Betfar then, that Europeatweb, an internet-based fund controlled by Arnault, holds a 10 per cent stake in the company.
In August 2009 it was reported that Betfair would be allowed to apply for a betting licence in France, ahead of the partial liberalisation of the French betting market in 2010. It was said that Betfair’-s application had been approved by the French authorities, after heavy lobbying by Arnault.
Fast forward to October 2009 and it looks like Betfair will be excluded from the newly liberalised French betting market. A surprising defeat for Arnault and a major shock for Betfair.
Share This:
The most bombastic prediction markets blogger say that the market has failed if its price close to closing is far away from the final price.
My dear honorable Eric Crampton,
Here’-s what I published about the “-Olympics in Chicago”- prediction markets:
Stay away from these markets where the intention is to divine the decision of a close, opaque group. It is impossible. No good information leaks out.
So, I did not say why you wrote. (I could sue your pants off for defamation. 
) I understand that prediction markets have to fail sometimes to be right. But the prediction markets on the Olympics in Chicago are just like playing the lottery. Nobody knows anything. No good information aggregation is possible since no good information is leaking out.
Share This: