The most bombastic prediction markets blogger say that the market has failed if its price close to closing is far away from the final price.

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My dear honorable Eric Crampton,

Here&#8217-s what I published about the &#8220-Olympics in Chicago&#8221- prediction markets:

The market participants did not possess a sufficient level of information completeness to arrive at the correct prediction.

Stay away from these markets where the intention is to divine the decision of a close, opaque group. It is impossible. No good information leaks out.

So, I did not say why you wrote. (I could sue your pants off for defamation. :-D ) I understand that prediction markets have to fail sometimes to be right. But the prediction markets on the Olympics in Chicago are just like playing the lottery. Nobody knows anything. No good information aggregation is possible since no good information is leaking out.

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