Prof Michael Giberson,
No “-careful observer knew this in advance”- (about Chicago being a lemon), for the simple reason that if they knew, they would have downgraded Chicago on the InTrade and BetFair prediction markets, and Ben Shannon would have not bet $6,000 on Chicago.
I look forward to your contrite correction on the frontpage of Knowledge Problem —-in bold, and with a link to Midas Oracle, stating that “-Midas Oracle is the only website in the world to have told you *not* to bet on Chicago a€”and to stay (far) away from any Olympics venue prediction market.”-
My thesis holds: The International Olympic Committee (IOC) is a close aristocratic group that does not leak out good information.
Previously: Chicago wona€™t have the Olympics in 2016.
– BetFair’-s event derivative prices:
– InTrade’-s event derivative prices:
– HubDub’-s event derivative prices: