Politico:
1. She lost the delegate derby.
2. She essentially tied Obama in the popular vote.
3. She lost more states.
4. She lost the January cash war.
5. The calendar is her enemy.
Five reasons Hillary Clinton should be worried
Reply
Yearly Archives: 2008
The US futures exchanges should not control clearing.
…- says the US DOJ.
The Justice Department called for a shake-up of financial-futures exchanges, saying current policies may have inhibited competition. – WSJ $$$
Chicago Tribune
FT
BW
Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- I get a kick each morning out of spying on the rich, famous, and powerful people updating their LinkedIn profile and connections. (Go to “InBox”, and click on “Network Updates”.)
- ??? BetFair bet-matching logic ???
- Eliot Spitzer has simply demonstrated once again that those who rise to the top of organizations are very often the most demented, conflicted individuals in any group.
- Business Risks & Prediction Markets
- Brand-new BetFair bet-matching logic proves to be very controversial with some event derivative traders.
- Jimmy Wales accused of editing Wikipedia for donations.
- What the prediction market experts said on Predictify
The Best External Web Links On Prediction Markets And On Everything Else
Folks,
I have just updated the “-Links”- page. Could you right-click on that link, open the link in another browser tab, scan the long list, spot what’-s missing, and contact me so I can add new web links? Thanks.
There are 304 links, there. Here are the 15 categories:
– Associations
– Blogs
– Books
– Exchanges &- Markets
– Experts &- Scholars
– Forums
– Media
– Midas Oracle Network
– References
– Search Engines
– Shared Readings
– Social Favorites
– Software
– Think Tanks
– Tools
Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- Is Justin Wolfers a libertarian? Probably not.
- The information technology that caught Eliot Spitzer
- Eric Zitzewitz’s 10 minutes of fame
- Fun with conditional probabilities
- Wrongly Crafted Headlines Of The Day
- an American, petite, very pretty brunette, 5 feet 5 inches, and 105 pounds
- Mississippi: Is it a primary or a caucus?
The Economist rebuts Paul Krugman.
See the title of that post: “-The market sees all, knows all”-. 
Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- Is Justin Wolfers a libertarian? Probably not.
- The information technology that caught Eliot Spitzer
- Eric Zitzewitz’s 10 minutes of fame
- Fun with conditional probabilities
- Wrongly Crafted Headlines Of The Day
- an American, petite, very pretty brunette, 5 feet 5 inches, and 105 pounds
- Mississippi: Is it a primary or a caucus?
Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
Both the prediction market and the pollster called 5 of the 7 head-to-head contest winners, so it was mostly ties between them. But in the NJ Democratic primary and the California Republican primary, Intrade contracts pointed to the winner on election eve, while Zogby indicated a tie in NJ and Romney in California.
| Standings |  - |  - |  - |  - | |
| Wins | Losses | Ties | Pct | Contender | Avg Eve Prob |
|  - |  - |  - |  - |  - |  - |
| 5 | 2 | 9 | 59.4% | Intrade | 69.6% |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 40.6% | Zogby | 39.2% |
Contest-by-contest breakdown at Caveat Bettor.
I was disappointed that Zogby only presented polling on 7 of the 20 contests on Super Tuesday.
Guess who is going to blog…
Carl Icahn
Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:
- Five reasons Hillary Clinton should be worried
- TURNING POINT: BARACK OBAMA EVENT DERIVATIVE NOW AHEAD
- The Best External Web Links On Prediction Markets And On Everything Else
- The InTrade webmaster is a moron.
- The Economist rebuts Paul Krugman.
- The US futures exchanges should not control clearing.
- Billionaire Stephen Schwarzman: “I don’t feel like a wealthy person.”
Stuck at your computer? Watch MSNBC on Midas Oracle, straight from your desk.
Well…- if the embedded video works fine. (If not, go to the site, and click on “-MSNBC live feed”-.)
MSNBC
Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:
- Five reasons Hillary Clinton should be worried
- TURNING POINT: BARACK OBAMA EVENT DERIVATIVE NOW AHEAD
- The Best External Web Links On Prediction Markets And On Everything Else
- The InTrade webmaster is a moron.
- The Economist rebuts Paul Krugman.
- The US futures exchanges should not control clearing.
- Billionaire Stephen Schwarzman: “I don’t feel like a wealthy person.”
How political prediction markets save lives
Over the years there has been a lot of talk in this community about how prediction markets could be “-socially valuable”-. The discussion has often focused on the value of the information and/or predictions that the markets could generate, especially in a political context. Election-based decision markets a la Hanson are thus being held as the highest form of “-socially valuable”- prediction markets, and our best bullet aimed at a possible legalization of real-money markets.
However, just in time for Super Tuesday, I’-ve finally stumbled onto a totally different, and to my mind much more compelling societal benefit of political prediction markets (the real-money kind, like Intrade or Bet2Give). It’-s based on sound science, but has nothing to do with information, prediction accuracy, or the usual economics/decision-support suspects:
Participating in political prediction markets may be good for your health by virtue of reducing the killer stress caused by aggravating political outcomes over which you have very little control as a voter. In essence, you can hedge against despair, and thus reduce your political “-learned helplessness”-. I present this idea more completely, and the science behind it, in NewsFutures’- blog.
The interesting thing is that it should be relatively easy to test, say as a senior psychology research project, but the consequences of a positive result would be huge. Who could argue against the legalization of something that saves lives?
So let the word go forth on this day that if there’-s someone out there who would like to run such an experiment, the industry would gladly help out, either through the PMIA, or through individual stake holders like NewsFutures. And if you’-re in an economics department, please reach out across the social sciences aisle to your psychology colleagues and spread the word! This, by the way, is especially aimed at Justin Wolfers who happens to share the U. Penn campus with Martin Seligman, the founder of Positive Psychology himself, and the inventor of “-learned helplessness”-.
In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times Web site.
The blogs won the bet.
In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times’- Web site.
The bet has been expired on the “-YES”- side. Dave Winer (representing the bloggers) won —-and Martin Nisenholtz (representing the New York Times —-at the time, in 2002) lost.
We decided that a weblog had to be something that would have been recognized as a blog in [2002]. This includes ad supported blogs and commercial blogs like those of the NY Times. While the bettors argument in this case discusses why non-commercial content will beat out commercial content, Winer never provides a definition of a weblog. As it turns out, including major news source blogs like those of the NY Times or sources like Wikipedia do not affect the ultimate outcome in the case of this bet, but they certainly could have.
Hummm…- How come Long Bets could have let people register a not-so-well-defined bet? Long Bets does not seem to be a serious organization to me.
As for what it all means: The blogging software packages are better content management systems than the other, older CMS packages. The blogging software and their specific usage (free access, content parcelisation, dates and keywords inserted in the URLs, peer linking, open comments, etc.) fit better in the Google super system.
Psstt…- One idea for the prediction exchanges like NewsFutures or InTrade would be to open prediction markets on Long Bets topics just weeks before the expiration dates. The event derivative contracts would say that the expiry judge is Long Bets. Emile Servan-Schreiber and Michael Giberson, any thought?
External Link: TechCrunch on what is a blog.
The Borg-Yahoo merger wont work.
It’-s like taking the two guys who finished second and third in a 100-yard dash and tying their legs together and asking for a rematch, believing that now they’-ll run faster.
Fake Steve Jobs
The cultures will never fit together. And the deal is too big. It’-s not manageable. And it’-s completely anathema to Microsoft. It’-s totally out of character for them. It goes against everything the company has ever stood for.
—-
Psstt…- On a related note…- If you haven’-t seen yet the Fake Steve Jobs address at the Crunchies 2008, (an “-acceptance speech”- he gave coz Apple didn’-t send any representative at the event), you should. Hilarious.
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- No Trades (other than at the start) —-> Not a reliable predictor, as of today
- How you should read Midas Oracle
- The best prediction exchanges
- “There will be no media consumption left in ten years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.”
- Hillary Clinton won’t be on the Democratic ticket. — It’s not going to happen. — N-E-V-E-R. — Not a chance. — Period.
- Suggestion for WordPress — Subscribers’ Capabilities
- This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are “clueless”.