The Industry Standard is powered by Consensus Point.

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I&#8217-m free to talk, now.

The Industry Standard is powered by Consensus Point.

The New York Times don&#8217-t print that, but they print that MIT CCI&#8217-s Thomas Malone (branded in the piece as a prediction market evangelizer) has been advising The Industry Standard.

I spotted dozens of news articles on the Industry Standard&#8217-s re-launching. Their spin doctor did a good job. :-D

By the way, speaking of media-managed prediction exchanges, the CNN prediction exchange has some prediction markets with each a total of transactions in the magnitude of 50,000. That&#8217-s awesome. Congrats to Inkling Markets. Mike Giberson (who has become an expert in MSR trading) is one of the traders, probably&#8230-

The true numbers of the BetFair blog readership

They do poorly, as of today. Not surprising, since their content is not interesting (to say the least, and to stay correct). The only traction in the feed readership stats (compiled by the Google Reader, the world&#8217-s most popular feed reader), right now, is the portion of the BetFair blog that is written by a female professional Poker player (&#8221-Annette 15&#8243-). She is sponsored by BetFair Poker.

BetFair blog

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • WordPress founder Matt Mullenweg is my hero and so he should be yours.
  • InTrade-TradeSports has seen more than $50 million wagered on the U.S. presidential election.
  • Prediction markets on who is going to win an election are more accurate then the final Gallup poll.
  • LinkedIn will be data-mining its database of millions of users to find potential experts.
  • Britons can’t get enough of Yankee’s politics.
  • TURNING POINT: BARACK OBAMA EVENT DERIVATIVE NOW AHEAD FOR BOTH DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION AND NOVEMBER’S ELECTION.
  • Five reasons Hillary Clinton should be worried

The concept of information value was not invented by Robin Hanson in the shower one morning for public release to the world via Midas Oracle.

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[The title above is a joke :-D based on Bo Cowgill’s latest comment. To get his joke, you will have to read all the comments there, till the final one (at the time of writing).]

Bo challenges me to publicize a Wikipedia link about the concept of information value. So, here is it:

Value of information (VoI) is undoubtedly one of the most useful notions in decision analysis. […]

Standard Definition

Consider a general decision situation having n decisions (d1, d2, d3, &#8230-, dn) and m uncertainties (u1, u2, u3, &#8230-, um). Rationality assumption in standard individual decision-making philosophy states that what is made or known are not forgotten, i.e., decision-maker has perfect recall. This assumption translates into the existence of a linear ordering of these decisions and uncertainties such that-
– di is made prior to making dj if and only if di comes before dj in the ordering
– di is made prior to knowing uj if and only if di comes before uj in the ordering
– di is made after knowing uj if and only if di comes after uj in the ordering

Consider the case where the decision-maker is enabled to know the outcome of some additional uncertainties earlier in his/her decision situation, i.e., some ui are moved to appear earlier in the ordering. In such case, VoC is quantified as the highest price in which the decision-maker is willing to pay for all those moves. […]

Voila.

Super Tuesday = Free money, if you are smarter than the crowd

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At Overcoming Bias, Eliezer Yudkowsky invites pundits, partisans, and anyone else with a nascent opinion about the limits of prediction markets to, in effect, put up or shut up. (Though he puts it in somewhat nicer words). Here is a selection, but read the whole thing:

If you think that Hillary is going to do better than the polls on Super Tuesday, and you&#8217-re going to sneer afterward and say that Intrade was &#8220-just tracking the polls&#8221-, buy Hillary now.

If you think that Obama is going to do better than the polls on Super Tuesday, and you&#8217-re going to gloat about how prediction markets didn&#8217-t call this surprise in advance, buy Obama now.

&#8230-

The point is not that prediction markets are a good predictor but that they are the best predictor. &#8230- If prediction markets react to polls, they&#8217-re getting new information, that they didn&#8217-t predict in advance, which happens. Being the best predictor doesn&#8217-t make you omniscient.

Everyone&#8217-s going to find it real easy to make a better prediction afterward, but if you think you can call it in advance, there&#8217-s FREE MONEY GOING NOW.

Buy now, or forever hold your peace.

Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby

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Up at Caveat Bettor.

Zogby poll numbers here. Intrade snapshots taken at 1pm. Here are the notable divergences between the pollster and the prediction market:

NJ Dem: Intrade calling for Clinton, while Zogby in a tie.

CA Rep: Intrade calling for McCain, while Zogby calling for Romney.

Standings&nbsp-&nbsp-&nbsp-
WinsLossesTiesPctContender
&nbsp-&nbsp-&nbsp-&nbsp-&nbsp-
3240.556Intrade
2340.444Zogby
Schedule&nbsp-&nbsp-&nbsp-&nbsp-&nbsp-&nbsp-
ScoreDate&nbsp-StatePartyIntradeZogbyWinner
&nbsp-&nbsp-&nbsp-&nbsp-&nbsp-&nbsp-&nbsp-&nbsp-
3-2-429-Jan&nbsp-FLRepMcCain2-way-tieMcCain
2-2-426-Jan&nbsp-SCDemObamaObamaObama
2-2-319-Jan&nbsp-SCRepMcCainMcCainMcCain
2-2-219-Jan&nbsp-NVDemObamaClintonClinton
2-1-215-Jan&nbsp-MIRepMcCain2-way tieRomney
2-0-28-Jan&nbsp-NHDemObamaObamaClinton
2-0-18-Jan&nbsp-NHRepMcCainMcCainMcCain
2-0-03-Jan&nbsp-IADemObama3-way tieObama
1-0-03-Jan&nbsp-IARepHuckabee2-way tieHuckabee

Seems to me that the TradeSports market was reflecting what was happening on the field, rather than predicting it.

Exactly. :-D

See the fist comment, there.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Five reasons Hillary Clinton should be worried
  • TURNING POINT: BARACK OBAMA EVENT DERIVATIVE NOW AHEAD
  • The Best External Web Links On Prediction Markets And On Everything Else
  • The InTrade webmaster is a moron.
  • The Economist rebuts Paul Krugman.
  • The US futures exchanges should not control clearing.
  • Billionaire Stephen Schwarzman: “I don’t feel like a wealthy person.”

Merger Markets on Microsoft-Yahoo

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HP began to explore prediction markets in 1996, but did not even consider applying them to the 2002 HP-Compaq merger. Similarly, Yahoo and Microsoft are two of the companies mentioned most often as being involved in prediction markets (along with their main competitor Google), but I&#8217-ll bet none are considering the by-far-most-valuable markets they could create, on their just-announced proposed merger.

Decision markets could say whether this merger is good for shareholders, by estimating the combined stock price given a merger, and given no merger. Similarly, decision markets could say whether this merger is good for these firms&#8217- customers, by estimating the price and/or quantity of web ads given a merger, and given no merger. This might help convince regulators to approve the merger.

My main doubt here is whether ad price and quantity are good enough measures of the merger&#8217-s social benefits – what other outcomes could such markets estimate, to speak more clearly? And this is a very clear demonstration that these companies are just not serious about finding the highest value applications of prediction markets.

Cross-posted from Overcoming Bias.

Oprah Winfrey

Oprah Winfrey

by Daniel Edwards

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Gary Flake to David Pennock: Come on board… or die.
  • Technology Futurism
  • Trade on BetFair-TradeFair as you would trade on TradeSports-InTrade, thanks to order-entry software BinarySoft.
  • Pervez Musharraf prediction markets –Eric Zitzewitz Edition
  • The Over-Round Explained
  • WHY THE PREDICTION MARKETS WILL LIKELY F**K UP SUPER TUESDAY 2008.
  • Still unconvinced by prediction market journalist Justin Wolfers

BetFair Digital Odds = BetFair Probabilities

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Odds that Hillary Clinton gets the 2008 Democratic nomination = 1.56 (digital odds taken at 9:15 AM EST)

To get the implied probability expressed in percentage:

  • Take the number &#8220-1&#8243–
  • Divided it by the digital odds (here &#8220-1.56&#8243-)-
  • Then multiply the result by 100-
  • 64.1% = ( 1 / 1.56 ) x 100

BetFair-generated implied probability is not far away from InTrade&#8217-s 62.1%.

Monty Python and the Holy Grail

Psstt&#8230- This present post was prompted by Niall O&#8217-Connor, who puts all his faith in the BetFair instant &#8220-over-round&#8221- &#8212-which indeed doesn&#8217-t add up to the virgin and perfect &#8220-100%&#8221- that Niall is seeking (like the Monthy Python were seeking the Holy Grail). Good luck for your quest, Niall.

Joke

The French Taunter:

Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!

&#8212-

External Resource: Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities – (PDF file) – by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz

&#8212-

NEXT: Implied Probability of an Outcome &#8211-BetFair Edition

&#8212-

The 45-degree Line

Via Steve Roman, Michael Abramowicz.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • BetFair SP = BetFair Starting Price
  • Gary Flake to David Pennock: Come on board… or die.
  • Technology Futurism
  • Trade on BetFair-TradeFair as you would trade on TradeSports-InTrade, thanks to order-entry software BinarySoft.
  • Pervez Musharraf prediction markets –Eric Zitzewitz Edition
  • The Over-Round Explained
  • WHY THE PREDICTION MARKETS WILL LIKELY F**K UP SUPER TUESDAY 2008.