Mercury, Xpree, HubDub, Media Predict, The Sim Exchange, Ask Markets, iPredict New Zealand, Smarkets, Red Monitor, etc.: Will they be still with us next year?
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Yearly Archives: 2008
Long-Term Prediction Markets
Exago Markets, Portugal, E.U.
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As I understand it:
– Prediction market consultancy in Portugal-
– They probably licensed Xpree‘-s software for enterprise prediction markets. UPDATE: They created their own software for enterprise prediction markets.
Best wishes to them.
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Prediction market journalism becomes mainstream.
A good enough (although atrociously elliptic) implementation is provided by Wall Street wiz (and ex convict) Henry Blodget.
Many modules are missing, but it’-s good enough. Henry Blodget made an effort on data visualization —-something Justin Wolfers never did.
Are we witnessing manipulation attempts on the Florida prediction market at InTrade?
Florida went blue around 8:51 PM, on September 26, 2008…- for a brief period of time:
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The Democratic side:
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Tip via Lance Fortnow
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Previously:Is InTrade being manipulated?
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UPDATE: See Jason Ruspini’-s expert analysis in the comment area.
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All against the BetFair premium charges
Excellent analysis from the “-Punt”- blogger.
Serial bet winners are accused (that’-s the word) to withdraw money from the BetFair machine, compelling BetFair to attract new money from newbies at a high marketing cost, and thus BetFair has decided to tax those serial bet winners.
I wonder what a Harvard or Wharton MBA would think of this reasoning.
It is my understanding that, in the betting and gambling business, you are always trying to attract new blood to make up for the disillusioned gamblers that you are losing on a daily basis.
Am I correct, folks?
Why don’-t BetFair raise moderately the trading fees for everybody, or try to reduce the cost of the BetFair IT architecture by slashing out what has been unnecessary added by their IT maniacs?
Previously: BetFair impose new “Premium Charges”, and their very active traders are up in arms. – 2008-09-09
As Justin Wolfers noted, maybe there are today bigger practical obstacles to prediction market arbitrage.
– Legal restrictions for US traders on foreign prediction exchanges (BetFair, etc.)-
– Transaction fees (you would need to operate on 2 exchanges)-
– Currency risks and cost for hedging on that.
Eric Crampton (a Canadian exiled in New Zealand) says he has managed to turn a buck, though, by arbitraging between InTrade and iPredict New Zealand. He also makes 2 theoretical points. Go read it.
Who is the InTrade micro-manipulator? Is he / she a Poker player? Why would he / she do that?
CNBC video + CNBC video #2
The second CNBC video segment that TradeSports-InTrade CEO John Delaney does not want you to see on YouTube:
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Nate Silver mentioned a Poker player. Why?
Our previous post on the InTrade micro-manipulations
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HUBDUB PUNDIT WATCH: TechCrunch is the bottom of the pool, while VentureBeat and Pat Buchanan are stellar.
I am not surprised at all by the results.
Maybe a non-profit organization should sponsor PunditWatch.
Robin Hanson (mister “-Track Records”-), take notice.
Washington Mutual is seized by the US government.
– New York Times
– Another one bites the dust:
(Sorry for those who have a narrow screen and don’-t see the right part of this big chart.)
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According to InTrade, here are the banks that could fail next:
– Bank United Financial
– Downey Financial
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External Links About The Big Bailout:
– Reason magazine have collected opinions from the leading free-market economists on the Bailout issue.
There is no reason to expect the correct solution from the same people who created the crisis in the first place and who until very recently thought the economy was strong and that there was little or no chance of recession. [Mark Thornton]
This is a financial coup d’-etat, with the only limitation the $700 billion balance sheet figure. [Yves Smith]
– Mike Linksvayer has some additional good links…- and some strong words, too. 
– Arnold Kling:
– NYT:
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UPDATE: Paul Krugman
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UPDATE: The Manhattan Institute on financial crisis and the Bailout
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UPDATE: