Monthly Archives: August 2008

Why the HubDub model is superior to the InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, HSX and NewsFuturess ones

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Because HubDub is the only prediction exchange whose prediction market webpages are indexed highly by Google.

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That query leads to that prediction market webpage.

That query leads to that prediction market webpage.

That query leads to that prediction market webpage.

That query leads to that prediction market webpage.

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In the 4 cases above, you can spot HubDub in the top 10 Google results.

I speculate that HubDub is going to harvest hundreds of thousands of Google visits in the next 12 months.

Which is probably higher that the BetFair blog will get from Google &#8212-and there is a low conversion rate (from the BetFair blog to the BetFair prediction market webpages), probably. With the HubDub model, the conversion rate is always 100%.

Nigel Eccles, this time, I am impressed.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Testing the new HubDub chart widgets
  • Why InTrade CEO John Delaney, TradeSports acting CEO John Delaney, BetFair CEO David Yu, HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles and NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber should supplicate me to develop my prediction market journalism project
  • The John Edwards Non-Affair: How on Earth did they get this photo, what does this photo prove, and which prediction markets should we trade on to profit from this alledged scandal?
  • Nick Davis’ effort to clean up British horse racing
  • Free Money On The Table At InTrade
  • Google Web Search shows that I am the only blogger in the world to talk about “prediction market journalism”.
  • Marginal Revolution vs. Freakonomics vs. Overcoming Bias vs. Midas Oracle

The John Edwards Non-Affair: How on Earth did they get this photo, what does this photo prove, and which prediction markets should we trade on to profit from this alledged scandal?

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– Will CNN report on the John Edwards/mistress/baby rumors? | Hubdub

– Will a supposed affair between John Edwards and Rielle Hunter be confirmed? | Hubdub

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UPDATE: The Charlotte Observer

UPDATE: National Review

UPDATE: Google&#8217-s cached webpages of the National Enquirer about John Edwards – Click on &#8220-Cached&#8221-.

UPDATE: Video


Edwards infidelity
envoye par dollarsandsense123

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UPDATE: UPI + Daily Mail + National Review

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UPDATE: ABC News + John Edwards&#8217- statement

UPDATE: Associated Press + Silicon Alley Insider

UPDATE: LA Times + Huff Post + USA Today + Huff Post + CNN + NewsWeek + MSNBC

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UPDATE: Blogumentary + Dallas Morning News + New York Times + Robert Scoble + CBS News

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UPDATE: Elisabeth Edwards + Huff Post

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UPDATE: CNN + ABC News + VIDEO + LA Times

UPDATE: API + NewsWeek

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UPDATE: The ex mistress rules out a paternity test. So, now we know what the big money is buying: her silence on the fact that the child is John Edwards&#8217- one.

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UPDATE: American Spectator + Huff Post + Huff Post

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UPDATE: ABC News

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UPDATE: CNN

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UPDATE: Cleveland Leader

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Video

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UPDATE: New York Times

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Subsidizing real-money prediction markets and real-money conditional prediction markets

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Should Google subsidize the Lunar X Prize contract on InTrade?

John Salvatier,

Our good friend Bo Cowgill might have already re-created those prediction markets on Google&#8217-s internal prediction exchange at a marginal cost of zero US dollar. No need for him to &#8220-subsidize&#8221- external prediction markets.

[As an appendix, I precise that I am in favor of opening the enterprise prediction markets to external traders, for some questions.]

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Subsidizing prediction markets is an old Robin Hanson idea that carries quite a heavy price tag.

Conditional prediction markets is a great idea on the paper. Many people (e.g., Mike Linksvayer) like the idea. However, here is what the uncritical Robin Hanson fanboys blogging on Overcoming Whatever won&#8217-t tell you:

  • The first problem is that nobody trades those things.
  • The second problem is that subsidizing those conditional prediction markets costs an arm and a leg.
  • The third problem is that no major news media outlet has ever quoted the prediction market prices / probabilities generated by those conditional prediction markets.

Peter McCluskey could have rent a French mistress (or a French gigolo) for a full year with all the money he is spending on Robin Hanson&#8217-s idea. Or vaccinated the whole African continent against Malaria. See Peter&#8217-s comment, at the middle of the webpage, here.

Philanthropy and prediction markets are not mixing well &#8212-yet.

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Marginal Revolution vs. Freakonomics vs. Overcoming Bias vs. Midas Oracle

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Here are the stats about the feed subscribers to these blogs who use either Google Reader or iGoogle.

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To interpret these data, you should know that:

  • The web visitors are not counted.
  • The PC-based feed subscribers are not counted.
  • The Web-based feed subscribers who use other feed readers than Google are not counted.
  • In the case of Marginal Revolution, which was one of the defaults proposed by Google Reader until recently, many feed subscribers do not actually read this blog.
  • A vertical blog like Midas Oracle, which deals only with prediction markets, is necessary far less popular than more horizontal blogs, which can publish about everything (including sex, as it has been the case in the past with those 3 economics blogs).

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Google Web Search shows that I am the only blogger in the world to talk about prediction market journalism.

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Good thing: I&#8217-m a pioneer (following Justin Wolfers&#8217- footsteps).

Bad thing: The whole world does not give the first fig about &#8220-prediction market journalism&#8220-. We will spend much energy introducing them to this new concept.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • BetFair angel investor Sean Park says that Jed Christiansen’s anti-sport comment to the CFTC stinks like rotten dead fish under the Egyptian sun.
  • Did ex-HSX Max Keiser cowardly give up on his prediction market TV journalism project? His website, predictionmarkets.tv, now redirects to a clunky YouTube video webpage.
  • Big Brother
  • Enterprise prediction markets in Israel
  • 2 interesting links — Monday Morning Edition
  • Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets
  • Why don’t prediction market people submit conference proposals for SXSW 2009?

Google PageRank of the main Prediction Market Consultants

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Inking Markets and NewsFutures are graded 6 / 10.

Consensus Point and Xpree are graded 5 / 10.

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My great friend David Perry of Consensus Point is making a strategic mistake by insisting on discretion and secrecy.

I told him 10 times.

To no avail.

Pissing in a violin in order to create a symphony would have been more fruitful.

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PageRank is important.

One day, we will learn in the Wall Street Journal that a Fortune-500 CEO is fired by the board for a low PageRank.

That will happen one day- you will see.

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The Prediction Market Consultants

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