Tag Archives: VP

How to oversell InTrade’s predictive power

Posted on November 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Chad Rigetti (InTrade VP) is interviewed by the website “MoneyFoxs.com”. In the seven days leading up [Joe Biden's] share price on Intrade went up about three and a half times. In the seven days leading up his share price on … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, InTrade, Joe Biden, prediction markets, primary indicators, vice president, VP, VP prediction markets | 5 Comments

The ubber president of the Pennock fan club responds to Felix Salmon.

Posted on August 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, Felix Salmon, George Tziralis, HubDub, InTrade, John McCain, Mitt Romney, play-money prediction markets, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Republican vice presidential nominee, Republican VP nominee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, US politics, vice president, vice presidents, VP, VPs | Leave a comment

Sarah… Who?

Posted on August 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

She is at 59% as I type this. (Sorry for my previous post about Mitt Romney. I consulted the political news websites before InTrade. )

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, InTrade, John McCain, Mitt Romney, play-money prediction markets, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Republican vice presidential nominee, Republican VP nominee, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, US politics, vice president, vice presidents, VP, VPs | Leave a comment

Mitt Romney [or Sarah Palin] will be the Republican vice presidential nominee.

Posted on August 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Tim Pawlenty won’t go in Dayton, Ohio. So, it’s Mitt Romney. The play-money and real-money prediction markets were easily fooled with the Pawlenty rumors, yesterday. That vindicates my message that the VP prediction markets feed on unreliable primary indicators. I … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, John McCain, Mitt Romney, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, Republican vice presidential nominee, Tim Pawlenty, US politics, vice president, vice presidential prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP prediction markets, VPs | 4 Comments

Tim… Who?

Posted on August 29, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Link to the InTrade prediction market. Below, I try to hot-link to the chart, I’m not sure at this point it will work. We will see.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, InTrade, John McCain, Mitt Romney, play-money prediction markets, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Republican vice presidential nominee, Republican VP nominee, Tim Pawlenty, US politics, vice president, vice presidents, VP, VPs | 1 Comment

A noun, a verb, and POW

Posted on August 28, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

John McCain will announce soon who will be the Republican vice presidential nominee. Reading the Press this early Thursday morning does not give any insider’s clues. New York Times Politico – - Will Mitt Romney be McCainâ€™s Vice Presidential nominee?

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, InTrade, John McCain, Mitt Romney, play-money prediction markets, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Republican vice presidential nominee, Republican VP nominee, US politics, vice president, vice presidents, VP, VPs | 1 Comment

The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight.

Posted on August 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The New York Times has a recount on how Barack Obama reached his decision on Joe Biden. The final decision was probably made 10 days ago, while Barack Obama was vacationing in Hawaii. [...] Mr. Obamaâ€™s decision had as much … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, Bo Cowgill, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Democratic vice president nominee, Evan Bayh, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, InTrade, Joe Biden, John McCain, Justin Wolfers, Kathleen Sebelius, Mitt Romney, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, Tim Kaine, Tom Snee, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs | 1 Comment

Never trust a politician.

Posted on August 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Ethics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTade, InTrade, Joe Biden, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs | Leave a comment

Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there).

Posted on August 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

â€œFriend — I have some important news that I want to make official. Iâ€™ve chosen Joe Biden to be my running mate.â€ Some blogger says his wife is fantastic. New York Times portrait of Joe Biden. UPDATE: Barack Obama‘s speech … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Caveat Bettor, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Democratic vice president nominee, Democratic VP nominee, Evan Bayh, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, InTrade, Joe Biden, Kathleen Sebelius, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, primary indicators, Tim Kaine, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP nominee, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs | 2 Comments

While InTrade CEO John Delaney is deceiving the journalists to sell his wares, Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Markets is telling them the truth: BEWARE THE VP-CANDIDATE PREDICTION MARKETS, THEY JUST AGGREGATE RUMORS.

Posted on August 22, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

BBC News: According to Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Market, at Iowa University, futures markets need more hard information than they get in the veepstakes, to reliably predict a result. Markets are very good at predicting elections, he says … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction market analysts, prediction markets, Tom Snee, TradeSports, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, vice presidents, VP, VP-candidate prediction markets, VPs | 8 Comments

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