Tag Archives: US President

Electing a US President

Posted on January 3, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

An explainer for dummies

Posted in Politics | Tagged US politics, US President | Leave a comment

State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction

Posted on November 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities. I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. – Contents a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, state polls, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections

Posted on October 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Folks, – IMPORTANT NOTE: – Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets. – Additionally, the other blog (Midas … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

Posted on September 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we are afraid that your “Jim Webb becomes VP” event derivative is now totally worthless —unless you’re a short seller (a.k.a. a layer).

Posted on July 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

WEBB DOESN’T WANT TO BE VP. – - InTrade – Democratic Vice President Nominee – Republican Vice President Nominee – BetFair – Next Vice President: – Democratic Ticket – Democratic Vice President Nominee – Republican Vice President Nominee – NewsFutures … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic Vice President, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Jim Webb, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Nominee, Politics, prediction markets, Republican Vice President, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, US Vice President, USD, vice president, VP | Leave a comment

The New Republic profiles the next Vice President of the United States of America —Jim Webb, maybe.

Posted on June 8, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Via mister Bo Cowgill The New Republic – Some British betting bloggers are completely out of the loop. – UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan on Hillary Clinton’s exit statement. (He liked it.) UPDATE: InTrade forum thread. – InTrade – Democratic Vice President … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Andrew Sullivan, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic Vice President, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Jim Webb, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Nominee, Politics, prediction markets, Republican Vice President, United States Of America, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, US Vice President, USD, vice president | Leave a comment

Hillary Clinton won’t be on the Democratic ticket. — It’s not going to happen. — N-E-V-E-R. — Not a chance. — Period.

Posted on June 6, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

George Will: [...] Surely she, the most polarizing Democrat, is not the only Democrat who can help Obama appeal to the voters who rejected him in Kentucky and West Virginia. And as his running mate, she would nullify his narrative. … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic Vice President, George Will, Geroge Will, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Kentucky, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Nominee, Politics, prediction markets, Republican Vice President, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, US Vice President, USD, vice president, Washington, West Virginia | 2 Comments

This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are “clueless”.

Posted on June 6, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Michelle [Obama] Vetoes Hillary [Clinton]. – by Robert Novak – May 20, 2008 —– mirror link. A veto —it’s a strong word. Those British betting bloggers are out of the loop. -

Posted in Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics, Robert Novak, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, US Vice President | Leave a comment

Dick Morris (ex-strategist for Bill Clinton) devoted, not one, but two, strong columns against the Hillary-Clinton-as-VP scenario.

Posted on June 5, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Dick Morris: It would be an act of terminal insanity for Barack Obama to name Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential candidate. [...] Finally, having Hillary in the West Wing would be a nightmare. – Dick Morris: Instead of conceding … Continue reading →

Posted in Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Andrew Sullivan, As VP, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Dick Morris, Dubai, emir, excellent journalist, Hillary Clinton, Politics, strategist, Todd Purdum, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, US Vice President, Vanity Fair, vice president, vice presidential candidate | Leave a comment

Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets. — Don’t bet on Hillary Clinton as VP. — Don’t listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket. — Don’t believe in “vice presidential selection committees”. — Select well your primary, advanced indicators. — Choose your bets carefully.