Tag Archives: US President
Electing a US President
An explainer for dummies
State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction
Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities.
I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008.
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Contents
a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral college
the latest news about the race for the White House
a visual roundup of various electoral maps based on state [...]
2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections
Folks,
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IMPORTANT NOTE:
- Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets.
- Additionally, the other blog (Midas Oracle .COM) is going to publish many posts per day about the US elections (scheduled for [...]
2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections Prediction: The Sarah Palin effect has partially evaporated, but its remains point to a close race, come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.
#1. Explainer On Prediction Markets
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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the [...]
We interrupt this bulletin devoted to the upcoming CFTC ruling to inform you that we are afraid that your “Jim Webb becomes VP” event derivative is now totally worthless —unless you’re a short seller (a.k.a. a layer).
WEBB DOESN’T WANT TO BE VP.
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InTrade
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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BetFair
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Next Vice President:
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Democratic Ticket
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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NewsFutures
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Barack Obama will pick a woman as running mate.
© NewsFutures
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
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Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by [...]
The New Republic profiles the next Vice President of the United States of America —Jim Webb, maybe.
Via mister Bo Cowgill
The New Republic
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Some British betting bloggers are completely out of the loop.
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UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan on Hillary Clinton’s exit statement. (He liked it.)
UPDATE: InTrade forum thread.
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InTrade
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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BetFair
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Next Vice President:
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Democratic Ticket
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Democratic Vice President Nominee
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Republican Vice President Nominee
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NewsFutures
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Barack Obama will [...]
Hillary Clinton won’t be on the Democratic ticket. — It’s not going to happen. — N-E-V-E-R. — Not a chance. — Period.
George Will:
[...] Surely she, the most polarizing Democrat, is not the only Democrat who can help Obama appeal to the voters who rejected him in Kentucky and West Virginia. And as his running mate, she would nullify his narrative. The candidate embracing the “future” should not glue himself to Washington circa 1993. Someone promising to [...]
This is why I said that those who believe that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket are “clueless”.
- Michelle [Obama] Vetoes Hillary [Clinton]. – by Robert Novak – May 20, 2008 —– mirror link.
A veto —it’s a strong word. Those British betting bloggers are out of the loop.
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Dick Morris (ex-strategist for Bill Clinton) devoted, not one, but two, strong columns against the Hillary-Clinton-as-VP scenario.
Dick Morris:
It would be an act of terminal insanity for Barack Obama to name Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential candidate. [...] Finally, having Hillary in the West Wing would be a nightmare.
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Dick Morris:
Instead of conceding defeat and campaigning for Obama, auditioning for the spot of loyal teammate, Hillary insists on keeping her options [...]
Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets. — Don’t bet on Hillary Clinton as VP. — Don’t listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket. — Don’t believe in “vice presidential selection committees”. — Select well your primary, advanced indicators. — Choose your bets carefully.
The topic of this post is:
Betting & Information
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#1. Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets.
I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Only 2 men in the world know what is going to happen: Barack Obama, and John McCain.
You can’t divine their final thoughts.
Politicians often lie about their intentions —they also change mind, frequently.
The [...]
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