Tag Archives: trading
Eugene Fama (the father of the efficient markets hypothesis): Here’s historical evidence that momentum trading doesn’t work.
New York Times: What the Past Can’t Tell Investors
I am linking to the story so as to create an opportunity for commenting, below.
Algorithms that execute thousands of trades per second
Automated transactions executed at lightning speed
InTrade CEO John Delaney refused to improve the fairness of the trading on his Ireland-based event derivative exchange.
InTrade — US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09
One InTrade trader, in October 2009:
The four re-definitions that have (so far) been necessary during the 3-month life of the US.GOVT.HEALTHPLAN.DEC09 contracts have brought to my attention that Intrade, to the best of my knowledge, does nothing to notify members that contracts they own have been “clarified”. It may be coincidence that volume [...]
Jim Rogers: How to make millions on the financial markets without using Robin Hanson’s collective forecasting or James Surowiecki’s wisdom of crowds
Jim Rogers in the FT:
What is the secret of your success?
As I was not smarter than most people, I was willing to work harder than most. I was prepared to examine conventional wisdom. If everyone thinks one way, it is likely to be wrong. If you can figure out that it is wrong, you are [...]
Feedback trading in prediction markets
Robin Hanson is schooled about prediction market trading.
Our guest author to our Master Of All Universes:
Feedback trading just means the kind of momentum trading that is pervasive in traditional assets, again, less so in prediction markets. In the biastest experiment, traders were given formal “clues” about the settlement, but for many market participants, the best [...]
Paul Krugman Tries to Foist Specious Argument in Tobin Tax Debate.
It was a nice try but short term financing wasn’t a root cause of the crisis. Highly leveraged, incompetent financing, along with a host of agency problems and too little, not too much, trading share most of the blame. Since “nobody knows anything” about the future, how will forcing longer term [...]
Jesse Livermore’s 7 Trading Lessons
Jesse Livermore’s Seven Trading Lessons:
The late Jesse Livermore is considered one of the best traders of all time. His exploits have been chronicled in several books, with the most widely read being Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre, originally published in 1923.
Livermore was wealthy and broke several times over during his tumultuous life, which [...]
CrowdCast = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts
The fine people at CrowdCast (Mat Fogarty and Leslie Fine) are finally out today with their brand-new, no-trading, collective forecasting mechanism. The purpose is to aggregate information across one organization so as to generate the most objective business forecasts. The readers of Midas Oracle are well aware of the (relative) performance of the prediction markets [...]
Prediction markets are a zero-sum game.
Did you lose money betting on InTrade, lately? Well, your money ended up in the pocket of that guy:
UPDATE: There was nothing about “hating the game” in my post. It was just a reference to the “sheep and wolves” concept floated by Robin Hanson. (See also the Iowa Electronic Markets research on their traders.)
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