Tag Archives: TradeFair

Prediction Market Orphans

Posted on April 29, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Leslie Fine has just told us that CrowdCast “abandoned” Robin Hanson’s MSR. It reminded me that TradeFair abandoned their 0–100 financial prediction exchange (modeled after InTrade and HedgeStreet). Now, the financial prediction markets are back at BetFair, which uses decimal … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds | Tagged CrowdCast, Justin Wolfers, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, TradeFair | Leave a comment

“The fact that Inkling needs five bullet points and a graph to explain short selling is a good indication itâ€™s too complicated.”

Posted on March 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

That was Jason Trost’s comment. But see, first, Chris Hibbert’s comment: My main complaint about using the â€œshort-sellingâ€ terminology in prediction markets, is that it uses a term from finance that describes a complicated scenario to describe a simple scenario … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Betting, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Mechanism Designs | Tagged BetFair, Betting, Foresight Exchange, inkling markets, InTrade, NewsFutures, prediction markets, short selling, terminology, TradeFair | Leave a comment

The search for velocity — TradeFair Edition

Posted on February 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Martin Thompson, Engineering Director at TradeFair: Every sub-millisecond counts for our customers. They need to be able to pull a price, if the market moves, in order to reduce the risk and allow them to run the spread tighter. Also, … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Information Technology, Software | Tagged BetFair, Martin Thompson, Prediction Market Software, prediction markets, Software, software for prediction markets, TradeFair, trades, transactions, velocity | 6 Comments

Prediction markets on stock prices are not the panacea.

Posted on November 18, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

TradeFair, soon. Not a bad idea, but not the best idea they could have. The EPS prediction markets were a better idea, because they have many more primary indicators. -

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Leading & Lagging Indicators | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, HedgeStreet, prediction markets, primary indicators, stock prices, stocks, TradeFair | 4 Comments

TradeFair

Posted on November 13, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

See this very interesting news article in BusinessWeek. Best wishes to TradeFair.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, financial event derivatives, financial prediction markets, prediction markets, The Sporting Exchange, TradeFair | Leave a comment

How many web visitors did Midas Oracle send to the prediction exchanges (and the other external websites)?

Posted on November 5, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Technical Note: Only the web visitors are counted here, not the feed subscribers (who are my main focus, though). – Here are the numbers of web visitors that the MidasOracle.org website sent to the external websites, yesterday, on the 2008 … Continue reading →

Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Midas Oracle Statistics | Tagged BetFair, Consensus Point, electoralmarkets.com, Google Analytics, HedgeStreet, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HubDub, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, prediction markets, TradeFair, TradeSports, web statistics, web stats, web stats reports | Leave a comment

State Polls vs. Prediction Markets — 2008 US Presidential Election Prediction

Posted on November 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Here are the latest (and last) state polls and prediction market probabilities. I am writing this post at 10:00 am —on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. – Contents a visual roundup of the prediction market probabilities for the 2008 US electoral … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, Midas Oracle, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, state polls, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

BetFair is doing fine —thanks for asking.

Posted on October 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- The Sporting Exchange – BetFair – Annual Review 2008 – PDF file -

Posted in Business, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged BetFair, BetFair Annual Review 2008, BetFair results, David Yu, Finance, prediction markets, profits, revenues, The Sporting Exchange, The Sporting Exchange Annual Review 2008, The Sporting Exchange results, TradeFair | 2 Comments

2008 US electoral map prediction for the 2008 US presidential elections

Posted on October 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Folks, – IMPORTANT NOTE: – Till Election Day, this present blog (Midas Oracle .ORG) is going to update you once in a while about the horse race thru the lens of the prediction markets. – Additionally, the other blog (Midas … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US congressional elections, BetFair, betting exchanges, betting markets, charts, dashboard, Democratic party, democrats, electoral college, electoral college prediction markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), GOP, HubDub, Independents, InTrade, NewsFutures, next US Congress, next US president, objective probabilistic predictions, play-money prediction markets, political elections dashboard, political elections forecast, political elections predictions, political prediction markets, polls, polls versus prediction markets, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, prediction markets beat polls, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, probabilities, real-money prediction markets, Republican Party, republicans, Thrid Parties, TradeFair, TradeSports, U.S. House of Representatives, United States Of America, US Congress, US Congress prediction, US congressional elections, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US President prediction, US presidential elections, US Senate, US states, USA, vote predictor | Leave a comment

InTrade should ditch their prediction markets on the InTrade prediction markets, and run a continuing series of 5-minute prediction markets instead.

Posted on October 8, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

I don’t like the concept. It has received criticism. I don’t spot much volume. I think that TradeFair’s 5-minute prediction markets are based on a much, much better concept and usability. Time for John Delaney to act decisively. There is … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged 5-minute prediction markets, InTrade, marketing, prediction markets, TradeFair | 1 Comment

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