A user participates in trading securities in a prediction market which represent different outcomes of an event, using an interface which allows the user to understand a trade in terms of a bet. The interface also allows the user to explore different bet amounts while receiving feedback on potential payoffs in real time. In one approach, a tool is used which is moved in one direction by the user to indicate a larger trade for an outcome, or in the opposite direction to indicate a larger trade against the outcome. A bet for an outcome can be translated into a purchase of a corresponding security which represents the outcome. A bet against a particular outcome can be translated into a purchase of securities which represents all other outcomes. The user interfaces hides complexities of the market from the user while surfacing relevant information.
My parents thought I’-d lost my mind to drop out of Stanford Business School to go to a company that makes software. My dad said “-what the heck is software?”- and my mother said “-why the heck would a person need a computer?”-.
A good (and sometimes hilarious) article from Apple Insider, which highlights the P.R. problems that MicroSoft auto-create each time the Redmond folks try to bash the Macintosh via fake ads…- disingenuous ads.
Brought to you by Koleman Strumpf (circa November 2007):
Henry Berg, Microsoft <-slides>- Discussant: Robin Hanson (George Mason Department of Economics) <-slides>- - Christina Ann LaComb, GE (The Imagination Market- abstract is free, text is gated) <-slides>- Discussant: Marco Ottaviani (Kellogg School of Management, Management and Strategy) <-slides>- - Dawn Keller, Best Buy (Best Buy’s TAGTRADE Market) <-slides>- - Bo Cowgill, Google (Putting Crowd Wisdom to Work) <-slides>- - Jim Lavoie, Co-Founder and CEO, Rite-Solutions <-slides>- - David Perry, Co-Founder and President, Consensus Point <-slides>- - Mat Fogarty, Founder and CEO, Xpree Inc <-slides>-
Tom W. Bell, Chapman University School of Law <-slides>-
Right-click this link, open it in another browser tab, and you’-ll get why.
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
The FaceBook profiles of the 2 most important men of the field of prediction markets
THE HUMAN GADFLY WHOSE OBJECTIONS ROBIN HANSON IS DUCKING…???…
Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.
Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets
Join our group at LinkedIn to have your “Prediction Markets” badge on your profile. It’s ‘chic’. (“Groups” info should be set as “visible”, in your profile options.) We are 63 this early Saturday morning —keeps growing.
If you have been using PayPal to fund your InTrade, TradeSports or BetFair account, please, check that horror story.
48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).