Tag Archives: Market Scoring Rules
CrowdCast = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts
The fine people at CrowdCast (Mat Fogarty and Leslie Fine) are finally out today with their brand-new, no-trading, collective forecasting mechanism. The purpose is to aggregate information across one organization so as to generate the most objective business forecasts. The readers of Midas Oracle are well aware of the (relative) performance of the prediction markets [...]
Why CrowdCast ditched Robin Hanson’s MSR as the engine of its IAM software
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Leslie Fine of CrowdCast:
Chris,
As Emile points out, in 2003 I started experimenting with (and empirically validating) alternatives to the traditional stock-market metaphor that will be more viable in corporate settings. We found the level of confusion and lack of interest in the usual fare led to a death spiral of disuse and inaccuracy. BRAIN was [...]
A combinatorial prediction market is one where users can construct their own bets by mixing and matching options in myriad ways
- either the bids are combinatorial (YooPick);
- or the outcomes are combinatorial.
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- either the market operator acts as an auctioneer; [*]
- or he acts as an automated market maker.
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[*] Jason, does this mean that a pure, real-money betting exchange (by “pure”, I mean without an automated market maker) could organize combinatorial prediction markets?
Sorry for asking, [...]
Robin Hanson on combinatorial prediction markets
Robin Hanson’s slides regarding January 2009’s San Francisco vendor conference: PPT file.
(You’ll notice that David Pennock’s YooPick is cited. )
A previous combinatorial lecture by the same Hollywood science-fiction consultant.
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Emile Servan-Schreiber’s Jedi mind tricks didn’t work on Nigel Eccles.
The conversation ended up on a draw.
Robin Hanson was AWOL.
Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
I understand that YooPick is a FaceBook application, but I’d like to know what these people are talking about, and in what context they link to Midas Oracle, and what they expect to find out on Midas Oracle when they click on the Midas Oracle URL. Natural curiosity for an intrepid webmaster like me.
Makes me [...]
HOW TO DESTROY INTRADE, TRADESPORTS AND BETFAIR: a betting application for FaceBook
If US laws were gambling compatible, would a FaceBook betting application solve the chicken-and-egg problem that any brand-new prediction exchange is facing? (Short sellers will come to the exchange only if there are enough backers, who will come only if there is enough liquidity, etc.) Could MySpace, FaceBook and LinkedIn (who have registered people by [...]
Grave problem with MSR that Robin Hanson and/or exchange executives should address
When there’re few trades (in this case, only 3), the last price/probability is too much dependent on the initial price set up by the exchange manager.
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Nigel, you f***ed it up. I want your apology letter posted on Midas Oracle no later than Monday morning. I want you full of contrition.
And you need to tell your [...]
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