Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Ireland

The InTrade customers fear about the (in)solvency of the Irish banks.

InTrade CEO John Delaney addresses this problematic.
Previously: InTrade-TradeSports’s country is on the brink of insolvency.

InTrade-TradeSports’s country is on the brink of insolvency.

Irish government faces growing fears of debt default.
Fears are growing that Ireland could default on its national debt after the cost to insure against possible losses on loans to the country rose to record highs at the end of last week.
Credit ratings agency Moody’s recently followed rival Standard & Poor’s in warning it might downgrade [...]

InTrade’s bank is in trouble.

New York Times:
Revelation Rocks Bank in Ireland
By MATTHEW SALTMARSH
Published: December 19, 2008
A major Irish bank was shaken Friday by the revelation of 87 million euros, or $125 million, in undisclosed personal loans to the bank’s chairman — prompting his resignation as well as that of the bank’s chief executive. Sean FitzPatrick, chairman of Anglo Irish [...]

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file):
July 4th 2008
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st Street NW
Washington, DC 20581
U.S.A.
Attention: Office of the Secretariat
RE: “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts”
To Whom it May Concern:
It is an honour for me as Chief Executive Officer of Intrade [...]

Why Midas Oracle will have to drop InTrade

UPDATE:
Why I am dropping InTrade from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets
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InTrade Ireland made the stupid decisions to drop their chart widgets from InTrade V1, a while ago, and to discontinue their support for V2 (which has been supporting chart widgets). Soon, a new version of InTrade V1 will be pushed out. If, [...]

How to make a MILLION POUNDS on the rotting corpse of David Davis’s political career (to be used for ethical purposes only)

1). For the form guide in this two-horse race, please see:
a). THE PRESENT (SHAN OAKES, GREEN):
http://shanoakes.blogspot.com
http://shanoakes.typepad.com
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=33635377720
b).. THE PAST (DAVID DAVIS):
http://www.daviddavisforfreedom.com
2). Mainstream bookmakers such as Paddy Power are not currently putting prices on the Haltemprice and Howden by-election on their website.
Yesterday, however, I emailed support@paddypower.com to ask them what price they would offer for the Green [...]

The news article that John Delaney will read with great attention this Monday morning

Via “Him Who Knows”
Upcoming changes of Ireland’s gambling and betting laws
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Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.

CNN:
FOREMAN: I’ve got something I want you to take a look at. Look at this. It could be the price of a stock or a mutual fund. It isn’t. It’s the odds that a particular candidate, the red here is Hillary Clinton, who will become president of the United States. It’s called the predictive market. [...]

BetFair-TradeFair has won its second Queen’s Award for Enterprise in its eight-year history.

BetFair Corporate (PDF file):
21st April 2008
BETFAIR WINS SECOND QUEEN’S AWARD FOR ENTERPRISE
Online betting company recognised for International Trade
BETFAIR, the UK’s biggest online betting company, is proud to announce that it has won its second Queen’s Award for Enterprise in its eight year history.
The 2008 award comes in the International Trade category, five years after Betfair [...]

The Prime Minister of Ireland has just said he will resign, but neither InTrade nor BetFair would give the first fig.

InTrade do not have any open “Bertie Ahern” prediction markets. InTrade do not have any closed “Bertie Ahern” either.
BetFair do have a series of “Bye Bye Bertie” prediction markets —still open at the time of writing. So I deduce that they would want to close the contracts just after the Irish Prime Minister’s effective resignation [...]

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