My 2 minutes (and 4 seconds) of fame – [VIDEO]

Google&#8217-s Matt Cutts answers my SEO question:

On your blog (, why did you switch from to ? Has this to do with how PageRank flows within a site?

InTrade has a higher PageRank than BetFair. No change.

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Google has just updated its external PageRank servers. (The PageRank is updated internally in a continuous way, but Google updates its external servers once a quarter or so.)

InTrade is 7/10. BetFair 6/10. HSX 6/10. HubDub 6/10.

– BetFair&#8217-s blog (Betting @ BetFair) is 5/10, proving, once again, that it is a mediocre publication run by mediocre people. BetFair&#8217-s second blog (BetFair Predicts) is 4/10. Midas Oracle is 6/10.

For the record, the goal to attain (for both exchanges and publications) is 7/10.

Google PageRank of Prediction Exchange Sites and Prediction Market Blogs

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Just a short note for the webmasters of prediction exchange websites or the independent bloggers out there:

Google is refreshing its PageRank system, this week. (More exactly, Google is refreshing the user interface of its PageRank system. The PR system itself is actually refreshed continuously.)

– Check to see whether your site has gained or lost PR. Best wishes to you. (Midas Oracle seems to stay at 6 / 10.)

– Check on many datacenters, and more than just one time, because the change is made gradually thru the many datacenters. Don&#8217-t be fooled by one datacenter that would not be up to date, yet.

  • Self SEO — (IP to server lookup — Google Page Rank Checker — Google Pagerank Prediction Tool) —
  • iWeb Tool — (Reverse IP / Look-up — PageRank Checker — PageRank Prediction) —
  • PageRank Calculator —
  • Webmaster Tools – (PageRank Checker – Google PageRank Prediction) —

InTrade has surpassed BetFair and TradeSports (and the Iowa Electronic Markets, too).

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InTrade&#8217-s PageRank is now 7 / 10 &#8212-while all the other major prediction market firms are at 6 / 10.

  1. It shows that the prediction market approach is paying off. Do provide journalist-friendly objective probabilistic predictions (expressed in percentages &#8211-not those fucking decimal odds), and the media will link to you, thanks to all the free-market economists who love your model and act as unpaid publicists for you. Make sure your website can resist under heavy traffic loads on Election Day, and during the occasional days where important news break. Then, milk out all this free publicity. Run registration ads allover your exchange website to attract new traders. Make money. Invest in IT &#8212-but don&#8217-t let the IT maniacs complicate your prediction exchange too much (as BetFair did).
  2. Long-term, the InTrade model (based on the prediction market approach) should be more profitable, in theory. Because of legal impediment, InTrade is not as profitable as it should be, alas.

Predictify gets the X Groups concept right.

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#1. X Groups

Predictify is unveiling a two-way interaction between their prediction platform and the blogs out there.

  1. FROM THE BLOGS TO PREDICTIFY: Number one, there is now a customized prediction widget that bloggers can embed in their blog posts so that their readers can vote within each blog post &#8212-without leaving the blog.
  2. FROM PREDICTIFY TO THE BLOGS: Number two, there is now a trackback widget that bloggers can embed in their blog posts so that the blog readers can click and be connected to relevant questions on Predictify, based on the content in that particular post. As soon as one of the blog readers clicks a highlighted question, that question will have (on the Predicitif webpage) a trackback to the blog post &#8212-theoretically pulling traffic from Predictify to that blog. The first problem with this second feature is that only the most popular trackback will be published on the particular Predictify webpage, as I understand it. I don&#8217-t see how bloggers could be interested if there is no guarantee that their trackback will actually appear. The second problem is that we don&#8217-t know whether Predictify abides by the &#8220-do follow&#8221- policy, which is a way for a website to injects Google PageRank juice to the website it links to. (The opposite policy is called &#8220-no follow&#8221-.) Only the &#8220-do follow&#8221- approach would get bloggers interested in that scheme. Predictify should clarify that.
  3. UPDATE: All the trackbacks will appear. They will be sorted by popularity. And, yes, Predictify has a &#8220-do follow&#8221- policy. :-D

#2: Social Networking

I&#8217-m told that Predictify will soon unveil a FaceBook application. We will see whether it&#8217-s Predictify working on FaceBook or Predictify woking with FaceBook. See the difference? (YooPick works on FaceBook, not with FaceBook.)

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Google PageRank of the main Prediction Market Consultants

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Inking Markets and NewsFutures are graded 6 / 10.

Consensus Point and Xpree are graded 5 / 10.

My great friend David Perry of Consensus Point is making a strategic mistake by insisting on discretion and secrecy.

I told him 10 times.

To no avail.

Pissing in a violin in order to create a symphony would have been more fruitful.

PageRank is important.

One day, we will learn in the Wall Street Journal that a Fortune-500 CEO is fired by the board for a low PageRank.

That will happen one day- you will see.

The Prediction Market Consultants

Google now considers Midas Oracle as a major blog.

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The Google PageRank of Midas Oracle is now: 6 / 10.

Midas Oracle is the only prediction market blog to reach that high mark.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Google Web Search shows that I am the only blogger in the world to talk about “prediction market journalism”.
  • Marginal Revolution vs. Freakonomics vs. Overcoming Bias vs. Midas Oracle
  • InTrade’s US Recession 2008
  • What Jean-Claude Kommer (a patented prediction market gadfly) thinks of Robin Hanson’s conditional prediction markets subsidized by Peter McCluskey
  • “Our prediction markets have not had a very respectable accuracy on anything related to our main competitor.”
  • Subsidizing real-money prediction markets and real-money conditional prediction markets = BULLSHIT IDEA
  • Don’t you love Google Analytics? I can track what Bloomberg spied on, here, yesterday. (Big media spy on us on a daily basis, web stats show.)