– InTrade is 7/10. BetFair 6/10. HSX 6/10. HubDub 6/10.
– BetFair’-s blog (Betting @ BetFair) is 5/10, proving, once again, that it is a mediocre publication run by mediocre people. BetFair’-s second blog (BetFair Predicts) is 4/10. Midas Oracle is 6/10.
– For the record, the goal to attain (for both exchanges and publications) is 7/10.
InTrade’-s PageRank is now 7 / 10 —-while all the other major prediction market firms are at 6 / 10.
It shows that the prediction market approach is paying off. Do provide journalist-friendly objective probabilistic predictions (expressed in percentages –-not those fucking decimal odds), and the media will link to you, thanks to all the free-market economists who love your model and act as unpaid publicists for you. Make sure your website can resist under heavy traffic loads on Election Day, and during the occasional days where important news break. Then, milk out all this free publicity. Run registration ads allover your exchange website to attract new traders. Make money. Invest in IT —-but don’-t let the IT maniacs complicate your prediction exchange too much (as BetFair did).
Long-term, the InTrade model (based on the prediction market approach) should be more profitable, in theory. Because of legal impediment, InTrade is not as profitable as it should be, alas.
FROM THE BLOGS TO PREDICTIFY: Number one, there is now a customized prediction widget that bloggers can embed in their blog posts so that their readers can vote within each blog post —-without leaving the blog.
FROM PREDICTIFY TO THE BLOGS: Number two, there is now a trackback widget that bloggers can embed in their blog posts so that the blog readers can click and be connected to relevant questions on Predictify, based on the content in that particular post. As soon as one of the blog readers clicks a highlighted question, that question will have (on the Predicitif webpage) a trackback to the blog post —-theoretically pulling traffic from Predictify to that blog. The first problem with this second feature is that only the most popular trackback will be published on the particular Predictify webpage, as I understand it. I don’-t see how bloggers could be interested if there is no guarantee that their trackback will actually appear. The second problem is that we don’-t know whether Predictify abides by the “-do follow”- policy, which is a way for a website to injects Google PageRank juice to the website it links to. (The opposite policy is called “-no follow”-.) Only the “-do follow”- approach would get bloggers interested in that scheme. Predictify should clarify that.
UPDATE: All the trackbacks will appear. They will be sorted by popularity. And, yes, Predictify has a “-do follow”- policy.
#2: Social Networking
I’-m told that Predictify will soon unveil a FaceBook application. We will see whether it’-s Predictify working on FaceBook or Predictify woking with FaceBook. See the difference? (YooPick works on FaceBook, not with FaceBook.)