Is Justin Wolfers part of the open-science movement?
Chris F. Masse August 21st, 2008
At times, Justin Wolfers posts raw data on Freakonomics to tease the other economic researchers.
Archive for the 'Science' Category
FAMOUS SCIENTIST TO ROBIN “HIGH IQ” HANSON: Science, which is a very long-term endeavor, does not need your stickin’ idea about scoreable predictions and track records. Please, go back to minding economic issues in your Ivory Tower, and let us run science our way, on our timing. Thanks. Appreciated.
Chris F. Masse August 12th, 2008
I don’t really think the comparison with sports/business/weather forecasters really holds up, for a prosaic reason — in particle physics, the timescale for experiments is years and decades, not days. There is no way to efficiently grade/reward people on the accuracy of their predictions, and correspondingly no real incentive for anyone to make very quantitative predictions.
On the other hand, it’s not as if there is no incentive to be right. If you devote your life to working out the ramifications of low-energy supersymmetry and it’s not there, you won’t get fired (if you have tenure), but on the other hand your life’s work will be useless. Which is a pretty big incentive.
Posted by: Sean Carroll [from Cosmic Variance] | August 11, 2008 at 12:25 PM
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Sean, I don’t understand the relevance of the timescale to the efficient grading of predictions. Given enough forecasts we can see a signal of accuracy above the noise of luck in individual forecasts. I agree that the longer the timescale the weaker are incentives from any given reward tied to scoring. But I’m not really focused on incentives in this post - I’m focused on whether it is reasonable for folks to crow about being vindicated when they weren’t willing to make scoreable forecasts.
Posted by: Robin Hanson | August 11, 2008 at 12:35 PM
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Scientists don’t want to make scoreable forecasts.
Hence, it is impossible to collect track records.
Robin Hanson’s idea has no application —over than vanity blogging.
Let’s go back to our prediction markets (where traders work, for free, as info collectors).
Let’s not waste our precious time on fruitless ideas.
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Science comes to the rescue of the “leading academics” suffering lapses of memory —those who, on Monday, signed on to be on the board of the Prediction Market Industry Association, which is supposed to lobby for the legalization of InTrade’s real-money prediction markets in the United States of America —and, on the next Tuesday, signed Bob’s puritan and sterile petition.
Chris F. Masse July 17th, 2008
US scientists have invented a pill that can boost memory.
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Invented by Dr Gary Lynch from the University of California.
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John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) - (InTrade PDF file - CFTC PDF file):
Nearly all leading academics, not known for their attraction to unanimity, have publicly supported event markets. A great majority of these academics have been supplied with Intrade market data in the past, a service that Intrade intends to continue, for all study leads to an increase in transparency and understanding of event markets. It seems that the leading event market academics make no distinction between the benefits derived from academic owned markets like Iowa Electronic Markets and commercial market platforms like Intrade.
Yet many academics, with some notable exceptions, do temper their policy prescription to suggest a “safe harbor” for academic sites where research might be more generally available. As noted above Intrade has gladly supplied its event market data, typically free of charge to most of the leading prediction market academics and their students, and we are committed to encouraging the future study of event markets by continuing to supply our event market data free of charge or at very deep discounts. The academics that study event markets do a great service in developing our understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of event markets. Some commentators suggest that market liquidity and breadth typically benefit all event market stakeholders. Thus far commercial platforms like Intrade seem to be providing the greatest depth and breadth in event markets.
As Intrade has been a staunch supporter of event market academic study, and supplies greater depth and liquidity in its event markets than any other platform, it seems strange not to be a preferred purveyor. Perhaps the predominant reason many academics have held back from advocating and treating all event markets alike is a sense that initiatives to clarify or unwind the legislation restraining the optimal development of event markets is unlikely to be achievable. It seems many academics and commentators suggest a slow bureaucratic and pragmatic caution rather than focus on the optimal result. While the optimal result may be more challenging to achieve, for consistency, for better price discovery for the benefit of all, as well as for the development of Intrade, we encourage CFTC to apply common goals, objectives and standards for all participants.
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Prediction Market Industry Association - (PMIA)
4) Lobby for a clear legal and regulatory environment conducive to the productive adoption of prediction markets by individuals, firms, and governments, and ensuring free access to these markets by traders.
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The PMIA’s first board is comprised of:
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Robin Hanson (George Mason University)
Justin Wolfers (Wharton School – University of Pennsylvania)
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What I mean by “advanced” and “retarded”
Chris F. Masse July 7th, 2008
- An event is “advanced” when it is before the others on the timeline.
- An event is “retarded” when it is after the others on the timeline.
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- I use the term “advanced, primary indicator” to talk about the leading sources of information that active traders rely on.
- Last time, in the title, I said that the InTrade traders were “retarded”, in the sense that they were late to compute that Israel will not attack Iran in the second semester of 2008. One InTrade trader (I presume he / she is) took strong exception with my wording. Sorry for that, man / woman.
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RANDOM HOUSE UNABRIDGED DICTIONARY:
- retarded = to be delayed
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Here’s the updated version of the story in question:
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- US Military Chief Says Any Attack on Iran Would be Destabilizing.
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Explainer On Prediction Markets
Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out… Intelligence in, intelligence out…
A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur; and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.
Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.
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“The economist Robin Hanson predicts that some of our computronium-based progeny may colonize the cosmos in a peaceful, cooperative manner, like nice liberal Democrats.”
Chris F. Masse July 1st, 2008
John Horgan in the WSJ
…“like nice liberal Democrats”… ha! ha! ha! 
— … like Mike Linksvayer, then… (depending on your meaning of “liberal”)…
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Brand-new scientific report certifies that starting off the Large Hadron Collider is NOT going to destroy the Earth. Glad to hear that. It means that any bets entertained on the LHC issue will be able to be resolved and winnings to be collected in the end.
A lawsuit has been filed to prevent the Large Hadron Collider from being turned on for fear that it might destroy the earth or perhaps even the universe.
Chris F. Masse June 18th, 2008
Great post on Overcoming Bias.
Bookmark the page, wait till all the comments pour in, and then read the whole damn thing.
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Following Eliezer’s example, I will stick my neck out and predict the chance of destroying the universe is less than the chance of destroying Earth.
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