Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Category Archives: Science

Why you should *never* trust David Pennock when he brags about the accuracy of his predictions

He cherry-picks positive outcomes in hindsight, and he measures probabilistic predictions categorically and in isolation.
Don’t be fooled by any “research scientist”.

REVOLUTION: Nate Silver says the Internet changed everything in politics. – [VIDEO]

16:35 into, Nate Silver is asked whether he would open up the data fire hose, one day:

SXSW: Nate Silver explains how he approached political forecasting for the 2008 US presidential elections. – [VIDEO]

In part #2, he speaks about the books he is writing:

David Servan-Schreiber on anti-cancer food – [VIDEO]

Emile’s bro is on an crucial crusade —battling cancer. Eating the right things helps a lot.

ClimateGate: How leftist scientists cooked the data on climate change to scare the hell out of people – [VIDEO]

Here’s the report the US Senator is talking about in this video.

Emile Servan-Schreiber’s bro on Imus

David Servan-Schreiber on cancer:
Watch the latest business video at video.foxbusiness.com
Download this post to watch this video —if your feed reader does not show it to you.

Nathan Myhrvold on geo-engineering to combat global warming

Great interview on CNN — video.
He also talks about “investing in inventions”.

The Climate Gate scandal highlights the modus operandi of the academic mafia.

Required reading this Friday:
- How to Manufacture a Climate Consensus – About expelling the non-believers from the academic journals publishing on climate science
- The Dog Ate Global Warming – About the destruction of raw temperature data of Planet Earth
More info on climate change.
P.S.: East Anglia e-mails (CRU)

The scientific consensus and the scientific minority

Andrew Gelman’s post (How do I form my attitudes about scientific questions?) got me attracted to this Wikipedia page:
In a standard application of the psychological principle of confirmation bias, scientific research which supports the existing scientific consensus is usually more favorably received than research which contradicts the existing consensus. In some cases, those who question [...]

Climate Stats = Sausage Making

How to Make Your Own Hockey Stick – Required reading for our good friend Caveat Bettor.
More info on “climategate” at Memeorandum
“Hide the decline”

“Hide the decline”

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