Monthly Archives: June 2008

One word is missing (“Israel”), and the event derivative market is useless.

The USA or the UN will attack Iran before winter, 2008 © NewsFutures

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

A letter to the CFTC about for-profit prediction market exchanges

I submitted a comment to the CFTC about their “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” Specifically, I addressed the American Enterprise Institute’s call for a ban on for-profit prediction market exchanges as well as restricting fees … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Business, Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments

Do you still have trouble commenting on Midas Oracle?

I deactivated the WP-OpenID plugin because WP Spam Free says it is the source of incompatibilities. I notified the WP forum. Commenters, let me know whether the problems you got while trying to comment on Midas Oracle have disappeared. Thanks. … Continue reading

Posted in Information Technology, Midas Oracle Administration | Tagged , , , , , , | 6 Comments

The “Israel bombs Iran” event derivative at InTrade should go further than the end of December 2008 to be fully useful.

They need to create contracts for 2009 —since Barack Obama takes office in January 2009, and since the timeframe given by that Israeli spy covers 2008 S2 and 2009 S1. See my post on Midas Oracle .COM for more on … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The CFTC is going to close the comments in 8 days. We have 8 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).

- THE MIDAS ORACLE TAKES: – CALL TO ACTION: Let’s fight so that the CFTC allows the FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”. – In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Grave problem with MSR that Robin Hanson and/or exchange executives should address

When there’re few trades (in this case, only 3), the last price/probability is too much dependent on the initial price set up by the exchange manager. – Nigel, you f***ed it up. I want your apology letter posted on Midas … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts

I wonder if the following is a joke: Events these past few weeks make an airstrike on Iran more likely. The Intrade contract reinforces this view. While the probability remains moderate at 32%, the chart shows a market that is … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Humor, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments

Will InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair be using this clock, one day?

Digital time to a millionth of a second. Video -

Posted in Inventions & Innovations | Tagged , | Leave a comment

“I no longer recommend BetFair.”

Writes the “Hundred Percent Gambling” blogger. Let’s hope that his/her grievances will find their resolution. -

Posted in Betting, Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Gambling, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , | 8 Comments