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Monthly Archives: June 2008
One word is missing (“Israel”), and the event derivative market is useless.
The USA or the UN will attack Iran before winter, 2008 © NewsFutures
The CFTC is going to close the comments in 8 days. We have 8 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade USA or BetFair USA), and counter the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
- THE MIDAS ORACLE TAKES: – CALL TO ACTION: Let’s fight so that the CFTC allows the FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”. – In the for-profit vs not-for-profit debate, our prediction market luminaries, doctored by Bob, are … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Industry), Regulations
Tagged American Enterprise Institute, CFTC, Chris Hibbert, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, for-profit prediction exchanges, Iraq, Jason Ruspini, Jed Christiansen, laws, Michael Giberson, not-for-profit prediction exchanges, Paul Wolfowitz, Porter lawyer, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Regulations, Tom W. Bell, United States Of America, Vernon Smith, young economist
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Grave problem with MSR that Robin Hanson and/or exchange executives should address
When there’re few trades (in this case, only 3), the last price/probability is too much dependent on the initial price set up by the exchange manager. – Nigel, you f***ed it up. I want your apology letter posted on Midas … Continue reading
“Chris, I wanted to make a comment on Midas Oracle, but the anti-spam mechanism ate my comment.”
Sorry for that, Nigel. Register yourself on Midas Oracle + Log in when you want to make a comment. – That way, the anti-spam mechanism won’t apply to you. (I suppose that it prohibits the publishing of many external links … Continue reading
Posted in Midas Oracle Administration
Tagged commenting, comments, log in, logged in, Midas Oracle, registration, spam, spammers, WordPress, WP Spam Free
6 Comments
Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts
I wonder if the following is a joke: Events these past few weeks make an airstrike on Iran more likely. The Intrade contract reinforces this view. While the probability remains moderate at 32%, the chart shows a market that is … Continue reading
Will InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair be using this clock, one day?
Digital time to a millionth of a second. Video -
“I no longer recommend BetFair.”
Writes the “Hundred Percent Gambling” blogger. Let’s hope that his/her grievances will find their resolution. -
Posted in Betting, Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Gambling, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce
Tagged BetFair, prediction markets
8 Comments
Do you still have trouble commenting on Midas Oracle?
I deactivated the WP-OpenID plugin because WP Spam Free says it is the source of incompatibilities. I notified the WP forum. Commenters, let me know whether the problems you got while trying to comment on Midas Oracle have disappeared. Thanks. … Continue reading →