How to assess Justin Wolfers writings for the WSJ, the BetFair blog, the InTrade bulletin, and Midas Oracle

No GravatarRobert Scobble (who got heat from the rest of the Blogosphere for that):

  1. Are you getting content that no one else is? [&#8230-]
  2. Does that content cause conversations to happen? [&#8230-]
  3. Does that content get noticed in the niche you’re covering? [&#8230-]
  4. Even more importantly, does it get the most credible and authoritative to link to you? [&#8230-]
  5. [I]t’s not the size of your audience that matters. It’s WHO is in the audience that matters. [&#8230-]
  6. [H]ow can I take my art further? [&#8230-]

I&#8217-d say this:

  • Quality Content + Quality Marketing = Quality Audience

Previously: The official BetFair blog is such a piece of crap that one of its writers is rebelling publicly against it. + Justin Wolfers in the Wall Street Journal.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Many people twitter on prediction markets.
  • Folks, when you have something important to say, write up a full post, not a comment.
  • Prediction Market Journalism
  • TechCrunch is 221 times bigger than Midas Oracle.
  • Earthquake measuring 9.0 or more on Richter scale to occur anywhere on or before December 31, 2008
  • Why Midas Oracle (and not TV news shows or print newspapers) will dominate the future.
  • The Six Degrees Of Separation

In a truly efficient prediction market, the price will come to reflect the influence of all available information.

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Justin Wolfers in the Wall Street Journal:

[…] Through this process of different people trading based on their own observations about the race, prediction markets prices come to aggregate disparate pieces of information into a single summary measure of the likelihood of various outcomes. Moreover, if this market operates efficiently, it will appropriately summarize all of this information and the price will become the most statistically accurate forecast of the election outcome. […]

If I may, I would like to jot down some thoughts related to my concept of prediction market journalism.

  1. The explainer on prediction markets is pretty good.
  2. Crappy URL: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119902559340658043.html?mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy
  3. No way to leave a comment.
  4. WSJ did list (in one of the sidebar boxes) BetFair along with InTrade &#8212-good point.
  5. WSJ didn&#8217-t list NewsFutures and Inkling Markets but listed their own play-money, bots-driven prediction exchange (WSJ Political Market) &#8212-bad point (conflict of interest).
  6. No external links embedded in Justin Wolfers&#8217- text &#8212-there are very good resources listed in the sidebar boxes, though (but the links use JavaScript and are not direct).
  7. No static or dynamic prediction market charts, even though Justin Wolfers spent a good deal of air time analyzing the recent prediction market events &#8212-a concept he formalized with Eric Zitzewitz.
  8. No tips &#8212-&#8221-I can&#8217-t predict what these trends will be […]&#8220-. Sounds like the prediction market approach (declaring that the market is a better forecasting tool than the polls or the experts) kills any anticipation and scenario planning. It shouldn&#8217-t be like that. Prediction market journalism can&#8217-t be only about analyzing the past. More on that in the coming weeks on Midas Oracle &#8212-not in the WSJ.

For all these reasons, I can give more than a straight B to Justin Wolfers&#8217- copy. You can do better than that, prof. :-D

What one thing do you think that countries, companies or individuals must do to make the world a better place in 2008?

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Is there any prediction market answer to the Davos Question? I bet that there isn&#8217-t any, because the successes of the prediction markets are incremental and not spectacular. Prediction markets are a tool of convenience &#8212-they have no magic in them.

Nevertheless, I propose that we send the boy scout of the prediction market field, Jed Christiansen, to the World Economic Forum &#8212-if he can endure the cold.

Boy Scout

Boy Scout Uniform

Do use Google Reader.

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About feeds:

  • I recommend reading any blog within a Web-based feed reader and I recommend Google Reader.
  • You should be able to scan-read quickly the items within your feed reader &#8212-classify them, tag them, share them, and search them.
  • Read your feed items starting with the oldest items. Google Reader: Click on &#8220-View settings&#8221- and select &#8220-Sort by oldest&#8221-.
  • Create a main folder for your most important items, and set it as your &#8220-start page&#8221-. Put your less important feeds in other folders.
  • Tag the important items that you want to star and share.
  • Share items with people who have good taste.
  • Perform searches in your archived items &#8212-in all of them, by category, by tag, or by feed.
  • Advanced tips on how to use Google Reader.
  • Advanced tips on how to share items with friends within Google Reader.

An Inconvenient Truth – Al Gores movie

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I just saw the DVD &#8212-and so did George Tziralis&#8217- brother.

An Inconvenient Truth - Al Gore’s movie

The main points:

  1. The Keeling curve, measuring CO2 from the Mauna Loa Observatory. [See chart below.]
  2. The retreat of numerous glaciers is shown in before-and-after photographs (see Retreat of glaciers since 1850).
  3. A study by researchers at the Physics Institute at the University of Bern and the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica presenting data from Antarctic ice cores showing carbon dioxide concentrations higher than at any time during the past 650,000 years.
  4. Temperature record since 1880 showing that the ten hottest years ever measured in this atmospheric record have all occurred in the last fourteen years.
  5. A 2004 survey by Naomi Oreskes of 928 peer-reviewed scientific articles on global climate change published between 1993 and 2003. The survey, published as an editorial in the journal Science, found that every article either supported the human-caused global warming consensus or did not comment on it.

Keeling Curve

Real Climate:

[…] How well does the film handle the science? Admirably, I thought. It is remarkably up to date, with reference to some of the very latest research. Discussion of recent changes in Antarctica and Greenland are expertly laid out. He also does a very good job in talking about the relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane intensity. As one might expect, he uses the Katrina disaster to underscore the point that climate change may have serious impacts on society, but he doesn&#8217-t highlight the connection any more than is appropriate [].

There are a few scientific errors that are important in the film. […]

For the most part, I think Gore gets the science right, just as he did in Earth in the Balance. The small errors don&#8217-t detract from Gore&#8217-s main point, which is that we in the United States have the technological and institutional ability to have a significant impact on the future trajectory of climate change. This is not entirely a scientific issue — indeed, Gore repeatedly makes the point that it is a moral issue — but Gore draws heavily on Pacala and Socolow&#8217-s recent work to show that the technology is there [].

I&#8217-ll admit that I have been a bit of a skeptic about our ability to take any substantive action, especially here in the U.S. Gore&#8217-s aim is to change that viewpoint, and the colleagues I saw the movie with all seem to agree that [Al Gore] is successful.

In short: this film is worth seeing. It opens in early June.

External Link: Al Gore&#8217-s critics.

Previously: The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports over BetFair-TradeFair for floating event derivatives on global warming. + InTrade’s global warming prediction markets are more socially interesting than BetFair’s ones. + BetFair’s Global Warming Prediction Markets &#8212- CFM&#8217-s Views

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

Why do civilizations die?

No GravatarEaster Island

by Tomas Munita

New York Times:

[&#8230-] In his haunting chapter about Easter Island, he weighed the data — radiocarbon dating, charcoal and pollen analysis and botanical and archaeological surveys — and concluded that the inhabitants had mined the forests to extinction, setting off a cataclysm. What, Dr. Diamond wondered in an often cited passage, was going through the mind of the Easter Islander who cut the last tree? [&#8230-]

[Case Studies of Civilization Decline:]

Case Studies of Civilization Decline

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Michael Gerber – The E-Myth Revisited
  • Changes to TradeFair prediction markets
  • Eric Zitzewitz, laughing all the way to the bank
  • Michael Bloomberg: I’m not running… but, beware, I am a King maker.
  • Meet the 3 Iowa Electronic Markets co-founders: George Neumann, Forrest Nelson and Robert Forsythe.
  • When Markets Beat The Polls – Scientific American Magazine
  • GLOBAL COOLING

We don’t know whether Google approach to management, and in particular its approach to innovation, is a cause of its success or a product of its success.

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Good point.

[…] Many of the most innovative and successful of Google’s new ser­vices are, in fact, ones it has acquired rather than created. Those include the hugely popular video-sharing service YouTube, the Weblog publisher Blogger, the virtual globe Google Earth, the online word processor Writely (renamed Google Docs), the wiki developer JotSpot, the news syndication service Feedburner, and the Internet phone service GrandCentral. When it comes to innovation, Google is starting to look less like a sower than a harvester, less like an inventor than an exploiter. […]

There are signs that Google is coming to recognize this problem. Over the past year, its management has begun tightening the reins on its organization, imposing some restrictions on the company’s freewheeling and free-spending culture. Late in 2006, in what CEO Schmidt called “a big change in the way we run the company,” it ordered its innovation teams to focus on fewer initiatives and reduce the overall number of products under development by 20 percent. An exasperated Sergey Brin admitted that he “was getting lost in the sheer volume of the products that we were releasing.” And when the company announced disappointing earnings for the second quarter of 2007, Schmidt put the blame on overhiring and announced that the company would be more conservative in expanding its staff in the future. Google is hardly staid, but it is growing up. […]

Eye-tracking studies: How people read Midas Oracle and the other websites

No GravatarChristina Laun:

  1. Text attracts attention before graphics.
  2. Initial eye movement focuses on the upper left corner of the page.
  3. Users initially look at the top left and upper portion of the page before moving down and to the right.
  4. Readers ignore banners.
  5. Fancy formatting and fonts are ignored.
  6. Show numbers as numerals.
  7. Type size influences viewing behavior.
  8. Users only look at a sub headline if it interests them.
  9. People generally scan lower portions of the page.
  10. Shorter paragraphs perform better than long ones.
  11. One-column formats perform better in eye-fixation than multi-column formats.
  12. Ads in the top and left portions of a page will receive the most eye fixation.
  13. Ads placed next to the best content are seen more often.
  14. Text ads were viewed mostly intently of all types tested.
  15. Bigger images get more attention.
  16. Clean, clear faces in images attract more eye fixation.
  17. Headings draw the eye.
  18. Users spend a lot of time looking at buttons and menus.
  19. Lists hold reader attention longer.
  20. Large blocks of text are avoided.
  21. Formatting can draw attention.
  22. White space is good.
  23. Navigation tools work better when placed at the top of the page.

Go to her post to read the details on all this.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Michael Gerber – The E-Myth Revisited
  • Changes to TradeFair prediction markets
  • Eric Zitzewitz, laughing all the way to the bank
  • Michael Bloomberg: I’m not running… but, beware, I am a King maker.
  • Meet the 3 Iowa Electronic Markets co-founders: George Neumann, Forrest Nelson and Robert Forsythe.
  • When Markets Beat The Polls – Scientific American Magazine
  • GLOBAL COOLING

Three-dimensional layout of dark matter in the Universe

No GravatarThree-dimensional layout of dark matter in the Universe

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Michael Gerber – The E-Myth Revisited
  • Changes to TradeFair prediction markets
  • Eric Zitzewitz, laughing all the way to the bank
  • Michael Bloomberg: I’m not running… but, beware, I am a King maker.
  • Meet the 3 Iowa Electronic Markets co-founders: George Neumann, Forrest Nelson and Robert Forsythe.
  • When Markets Beat The Polls – Scientific American Magazine
  • GLOBAL COOLING