Well be eight degrees hotter in 30 or 40 years and basically none of the crops will grow. Most of the people will have died and the rest of us will be cannibals, said Turner, 69. Civilization will have broken down. The few people left will be living in a failed state -like Somalia or Sudan- and livi

No GravatarTed Turner @ Charlie Rose (on April 1st, 2008)

The answer is &#8220-better technology&#8220-.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • How to win $100 in play money at HubDub, regardless of any political outcome
  • Problem 17: Prediction Markets — USMA D/Math Problem of the Week — Submission Deadline: April 3, 2008 at 1600
  • Midas Oracle is now powered by WordPress 2.5 —and you should be too.
  • Would be fun to have the equivalent for event derivatives.
  • QUESTION TO THE READERS: Could anyone guess what Nassim Nicholas Taleb would think of the prediction markets?

The Prime Minister of Ireland has just said he will resign, but neither InTrade nor BetFair would give the first fig.

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  1. InTrade do not have any open &#8220-Bertie Ahern&#8221- prediction markets. InTrade do not have any closed &#8220-Bertie Ahern&#8221- either.
  2. BetFair do have a series of &#8220-Bye Bye Bertie&#8221- prediction markets &#8212-still open at the time of writing. So I deduce that they would want to close the contracts just after the Irish Prime Minister&#8217-s effective resignation (in early May 2008). Which makes sense to me. (InTrade fell on Larry Craig&#8217-s false resignation, as you may remember.) The BetFair event derivative contract only states:
  • When will Bertie Ahern officially cease to be Taoiseach of the Republic of Ireland? Unmatched bets will not be cancelled at any time. Users are responsible for their own positions. Users should be aware that they are NOT allowed to bet on this event if they are physically present in Austria or Germany.

BetFair static chart (resignation to happen before January 2009):

PM Ireland 2009

As a matter of experiment, I am going to try to paste just below a hot-linked BetFair chart&#8230- to see if that works (that is, if BetFair accepts that bloggers do hot-link to their live charts). If you don&#8217-t see the &#8220-Bye Bye Bertie&#8221- chart appearing in the line just below, don&#8217-t mind.

UPDATE: The experiment is successful. BetFair do accept that bloggers hot-link to their live charts. Great news. (My readers may remember that I did that same experiment with InTrade&#8217-s advanced charts, some weeks ago, and that the experiment failed. But I&#8217-ll re-do that InTrade experiment, a bit later.)

Via HubDub, The Independent

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Thanks to enterprise prediction markets, senior management can move faster to deal with problems or exploit opportunities.
  • NOTE TO SELF: Set up customized e-mail alerts for brand-new, hot Midas Oracle stuff.
  • DAYS OF RECKONING, PART TWO: Matt Drudge features the prediction markets. + Reuters has the right terminology (“traders”, “prediction exchanges”) but ignores BetFair.
  • DAYS OF RECKONING: The New York Times is telling the business world that enterprise prediction markets are an essential management tool.
  • HubDub will soon distribute a continuously-updating chart widget displaying the state of their prediction markets.

QUESTION TO THE READERS: Could anyone guess what Nassim Nicholas Taleb would think of the prediction markets?

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Fortune:

The idea that catastrophe can strike without warning does not seem particularly hard to understand. Why doesn&#8217-t Wall Street ever seem to allow for that possibility? And why doesn&#8217-t it learn from past catastrophes?

Let me blame business schools and the financial economics establishment – they have a vested interest in promoting models and devaluing common sense.

I worked on Wall Street for close to two decades in trading and risk management of derivatives. I noticed that while portfolio models got worse and worse in tracking reality, their use kept increasing as if nothing was happening. Why? Because in the past 15 years business schools accelerated their teaching of portfolio theory as a replacement for our experiences. It looks like science, and they have been brainwashing more than 100,000 students a year. There is no way my experiences can be transmitted to the next generation because of these schools. We&#8217-ve had fiascoes in finance that they need to neglect because they contradict their models. The problem may also be the Nobel in economics that gave a stamp to these junky theories. Someone needs to make the Nobel committee account for this, for the damage to society – and I hope to do so.

Strongly anti-establishment guy. (More here, last year, with Felix Salmon.)

Could anyone guess what Nassim Nicholas Taleb would think of the prediction markets? Would he think that our prediction market researchers (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, and company) are &#8220-giving stamp to junky theories&#8221-, hence &#8220-damaging society&#8221-?

Anyone (who knows NNT) willing to guess???&#8230-

UPDATE: Jason Ruspini&#8230-

The basic answer is obvious – Taleb considers predicting as such to be nonsense, although the papers in this area by Wolfers et al only need appeal to information aggregation.

I do think Taleb would be very skeptical of the model-based papers on manipulation. While he and Robin Hanson seem to have some similar interests, this might be a difference. Consider Taleb&#8217-s &#8220-Fat Tony&#8221- and &#8220-Dr John&#8221- characters from The Black Swan. Fat Tony is more intuitive and &#8220-street-smart&#8221-. Dr John is more &#8220-platonic&#8221-, nerdy, and more apt to make mistakes because of a bad model or assumptions. The characters are each posed the following question: &#8220-Say I flip a fair coin ten times and it comes up heads all ten times. What are the chances of it coming up heads on the next flip?&#8221- Dr John replies, &#8220-Elementary. They are independent events, so 50%.&#8221-  Fat Tony says, &#8220-Less than 10% because the coin is probably loaded. Your assumptions are wrong or you are lying!&#8221-

The model-based papers on manipulation assume equal trading budgets and no feedback trading. These assumptions rarely hold.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • “I’m very concerned with the international situation and what’s happening in Tibet.”
  • How to win $100 in play money at HubDub, regardless of any political outcome
  • Problem 17: Prediction Markets — USMA D/Math Problem of the Week — Submission Deadline: April 3, 2008 at 1600
  • Midas Oracle is now powered by WordPress 2.5 —and you should be too.
  • Would be fun to have the equivalent for event derivatives.

Do you put your prediction market videos on the Web? Do you twitter on prediction markets?

No GravatarFolks,

To increase my ultra-comprehensive list of good links on prediction markets (which generously encompasses economist Michael &#8220-Barbecue&#8221- Giberson), I am seeking:

  1. Web spots publishing videos on predictions markets (video blogs, etc.)-
  2. Prediction market people (like this Greek guy) who are managing a Twitter mini-blog (as opposed to a full blog).

Send me URLs, please.

Thanks. Will make up to you.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • REBUTTAL: SalesForce, StarBucks and Dell demonstrate that enterprise prediction markets as intra-corporation communication tools (as opposed to forecasting tools) are overhyped by the prediction market software vendors and a little clique of uncritical courtisans.
  • Comments are often more interesting than the post that ignited them.
  • Harvard fella says prediction markets are doomed.
  • How should prediction market firms (e.g., InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair) deal with Blogosphere’s criticism?
  • BetFair’s future bet-matching logic
  • If Midas Oracle were to meet, would we use Huddle, and why?
  • WORLD’S SUCH A SMALL PLACE: Smarkets meet HubDub.

YouTube Videos on Prediction Markets

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I have created a &#8220-Prediction Market Videos&#8221- category in my &#8220-Links&#8221- page. I have listed there the InTrade and the Jed Christiansen webspots at YouTube.

Any other link(s) to suggest, folks?

Jed Christiansen: What is a prediction market?

Jed Christiansen: How can I use a prediction market for my business?

The Best Piece Of News I Have Just Heard This Thursday Morning.

No GravatarYouBet.com is in great financial trouble.

Fantastic. I am so happy I could lay an egg.

YouBet.com

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • REBUTTAL: SalesForce, StarBucks and Dell demonstrate that enterprise prediction markets as intra-corporation communication tools (as opposed to forecasting tools) are overhyped by the prediction market software vendors and a little clique of uncritical courtisans.
  • Comments are often more interesting than the post that ignited them.
  • Harvard fella says prediction markets are doomed.
  • How should prediction market firms (e.g., InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair) deal with Blogosphere’s criticism?
  • BetFair’s future bet-matching logic
  • If Midas Oracle were to meet, would we use Huddle, and why?
  • WORLD’S SUCH A SMALL PLACE: Smarkets meet HubDub.

Do BetFair spy on their customers trading accounts?

No GravatarYou may have heard the rumor that BetFair do access customers&#8217- trading details and do use that intelligence.

From what I gather (the re-phrasing is mine):

  1. BetFair does never seed markets or take proprietary positions against its customers.
  2. At BetFair, taking advantage of customer information would be considered grounds for summary dismissal.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Do BetFair understand the “statistical concept of expectation”?
  • Towards an anti-drugs and anti-corruption body for all sports? — BetFair’s proposal…
  • TOTE Tasmania has entered into an agency agreement with Betfair Australia that will provide it with access to Betfair’s global customer base of more than one million punters.
  • Do InTrade allow financial scams to be published on their web forum?
  • The BetFair Starting Price is such a phenomenal success that their MSR-like system melted down under pressure last Saturday, April 5th, 2008, for the British equivalent of the Kentucky Derby —the Grand National at Liverpool.

Details on how the Federal Reserve will TRY to crash real-money prediction exchanges InTrade-TradeSports and MatchBook

No GravatarVia Betting Market, the Federal Reserve:

Louise L. Roseman, Director, Division of Reserve Bank Operations and Payment Systems

Internet gambling

Before the Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, Trade, and Technology, Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives

April 2, 2008

Chairman Gutierrez, Ranking Member Paul, and members of the Subcommittee, I am pleased to appear before you to discuss the implementation of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006. I will provide an overview of the Act and of the proposed rule to implement the Act that the Federal Reserve Board and the Secretary of the Treasury (the Agencies) published for comment. I will also highlight the major issues raised in the comments we received.

Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006

The Act prohibits gambling businesses from accepting payments in connection with unlawful Internet gambling. Such payments are termed &#8220-restricted transactions.&#8221- The Act also requires the Board and the Secretary of Treasury, in consultation with the Attorney General, to prescribe regulations requiring designated payment systems and their participants to establish policies and procedures reasonably designed to identify and block or otherwise prevent or prohibit the acceptance of restricted transactions.

The Act does not spell out which gambling activities are lawful and which are unlawful, but rather relies on the underlying substantive Federal and State laws. The Act does, however, exclude certain intrastate and intratribal wagers from the definition of &#8220-unlawful Internet gambling,&#8221- and also excludes any activity that is allowed under the Interstate Horseracing Act of 1978. The activities that are permissible under the various Federal and State gambling laws are not well-settled and can be subject to varying interpretations. Congress recognized this fact when it included in the Act a &#8220-sense of Congress&#8221- provision that states that the Interstate Horseracing Act exclusion &#8220-is not intended to resolve any existing disagreements over how to interpret the relationship between the Interstate Horseracing Act and other Federal statutes.&#8221-

The Act directs the Agencies to designate payment systems that could be used to facilitate restricted transactions. A designated payment system and its participants must comply with the rule. Congress recognized, however, that it may be difficult to block restricted transactions made in certain payment systems, and directed the Agencies to exempt transactions or designated payment systems from the rule&#8217-s requirements in those cases where it is not reasonably practical to block restricted transactions. By including this requirement, Congress recognized the importance of an efficient payment system to a well-functioning economy and of ensuring that the Agencies&#8217- rule does not have a material adverse effect on payment system efficiency. In addition, the Act requires that the regulations identify the types of policies and procedures, including non-exclusive examples, that the Agencies would deem reasonably designed to prevent or prohibit restricted transactions. The Act also requires the Agencies to ensure that their regulations do not block or otherwise prevent or prohibit transactions related to activity that is explicitly excluded from the definition of unlawful Internet gambling.

The Proposed Rule and Comments Received

Overview of the proposed rule. Over the course of this rulemaking, the Agencies have done a considerable amount of outreach to payment system representatives, gaming interests, Federal and State regulators, and others. These consultations enabled the Agencies to gain a better understanding of gaming and its regulatory structure, and the role the various payment systems play in facilitating gaming. Although Board staff is quite familiar with the operations of many types of payment systems, this consultation provided a deeper understanding of certain payment systems, such as money transmitting businesses (for example, Western Union, MoneyGram, and PayPal), and allowed the Agencies to better focus on formulating options for policies and procedures that would be practical for those systems to comply with the Act.

In October 2007, the Agencies published for comment a proposed rule to implement the Act. The proposed rule (1) designates payment systems that could be used by participants in connection with a restricted transaction, (2) exempts certain participants in certain designated payment systems from the requirements of the regulation, and (3) requires non-exempt participants to establish and implement policies and procedures reasonably designed to prevent or prohibit restricted transactions.

For each designated payment system, the proposed rule sets out non-exclusive examples of policies and procedures for non-exempt participants in the system that the Agencies believe are reasonably designed to prevent or prohibit restricted transactions. These examples are tailored to the particular roles participants play in each payment system. The examples include policies and procedures that address methods for conducting due diligence in establishing and maintaining a customer relationship designed to ensure that the customer does not originate or receive restricted transactions through the customer relationship. The examples also include policies and procedures that address remedial actions with respect to a customer if the participant becomes aware that the customer has originated or received restricted transactions through the customer relationship. Examples applicable to card systems and money transmitting businesses include procedures to address ongoing monitoring or testing to detect possible restricted transactions and, in the case of card systems, establishing transaction codes and merchant category codes that enable the card system or card issuer to identify and deny authorization for a restricted transaction.

More than 200 organizations and consumers submitted comments on the proposal. Many of the comments were directed toward the Act itself. Most consumers who commented indicated that the Act represents an inappropriate governmental intrusion into citizens&#8217- private affairs. Other commenters expressed concern that the Act will exacerbate the U.S.&#8217-s difficulties with the World Trade Organization related to Internet gambling. Some banks warned that the cumulative effect of the increased compliance burden of this and other laws will adversely affect the competitiveness of the U.S. payment system. In contrast, some commenters supported the Act&#8217-s goals, noting the problems that Internet gambling causes for individuals who gamble beyond their means.

I will now highlight certain aspects of the proposed rule and the associated comments that the Agencies received.

Determination of what constitutes unlawful Internet gambling. Like the Act, the proposed rule did not specify what constitutes unlawful Internet gambling. Lack of clarity on this topic in both the Act and the proposed regulation was the most prominent concern raised by the commenters. Commenters that represent payment systems and their participants stressed that uncertainty about what constitutes unlawful Internet gambling would make compliance with the rule very difficult and burdensome. Commenters generally supported bright-line mechanisms for determining which transactions they should block. Clarity on this point would permit them to design policies and procedures that they could be assured would meet the rule&#8217-s requirements. A number of commenters recommended that the Agencies develop a list of gambling businesses whose transactions should be blocked. While some of these commenters acknowledged the limited effectiveness of such a list, they desired the certainty and efficiency that it would provide. Other commenters suggested that the rule should place the onus on the Internet gambling business to demonstrate to its bank the legality of its transactions. Still others, including some gambling businesses and many consumers, asked that the rule clarify that certain types of gambling, such as pari-mutuel betting or poker, are lawful.

Designated payment systems. The Agencies proposed designating a broad range of payment systems that could be used in connection with Internet gambling. Designated payment systems include automated clearinghouse (ACH) systems, card systems (including credit card, debit card, and prepaid or stored-value systems), check collection systems, money transmitting businesses, and wire transfer systems (such as Fedwire and CHIPS). Commenters generally concurred with the scope of the payment system designations.

Exemptions. The Agencies considered instances when it would not be reasonably practical to identify and block, or otherwise prevent or prohibit, restricted transactions. The proposed rule did not exempt from compliance any designated payment system in its entirety, but rather exempted certain participants in the ACH, check collection, and wire transfer systems. With respect to domestic transactions, the proposed rule exempts all participants in these systems except for a participant that would have a customer relationship with an Internet gambling business. The institution that has the customer relationship with that business is in the best position to determine the nature of the customer’s business and whether the customer is likely to receive restricted transactions for credit to its account. The Agencies believe it is not reasonably practical for other parties to transactions in these systems to identify restricted transactions because these systems do not have the functional capabilities in place for identifying and blocking payments made for specific purposes or initiated in specific ways, such as on the Internet. For that reason, some banks recommended that these systems be exempt from the rule altogether. The proposed rule did not include exemptions for any participant in a card system or money transmitting business– rather, the Agencies tailored the examples of policies and procedures to the functional capabilities of those systems and their participants.

Due diligence. As I noted earlier, the proposed rule contained examples of policies and procedures that would comply with the rule. Those examples included procedures to conduct due diligence in establishing and maintaining commercial customer relationships to ensure that commercial customers do not originate or receive restricted transactions. Bank commenters generally believed that such due diligence could be performed at the time of account opening for accounts established following the effective date of the regulation if they had a mechanism to readily determine which Internet gambling activity was unlawful. They indicated it would be very difficult and burdensome, however, to ascertain which existing business customers conduct Internet gambling activity, because they have not maintained records on their accounts in a manner that would readily permit identification of such accounts. This requirement would be particularly challenging for the largest banks, which have millions of commercial account relationships.

Cross-border transactions. Most unlawful Internet gambling businesses are based outside the United States and therefore do not have account relationships with U.S. financial institutions. Instead, their accounts are held at foreign institutions, and restricted transactions enter the U.S. payment system through cross-border relationships between those foreign institutions and U.S. financial institutions or payment systems. The proposed rule, therefore, places responsibility on U.S. payment system participants that send transactions to, or receive transactions from, foreign institutions to establish policies and procedures reasonably designed to prevent these restricted transactions. For example, a U.S. correspondent bank could require in its account agreement that foreign institutions have policies and procedures in place to avoid sending restricted transactions to the U.S. participant.

Commenters stated that measures to prevent foreign institutions from sending restricted transactions to the United States would likely be unworkable. They believed that most foreign banks would not agree to modify their contracts with U.S. banks, particularly if Internet gambling is legal in a foreign institution&#8217-s home country. Detecting and preventing cross-border Internet gambling transactions presents challenges that differ from other criminal financial transactions, such as money laundering or terrorist financing. Laws in many other jurisdictions impose compliance obligations upon financial institutions with respect to those types of financial crime- there are, however, few comparable compliance requirements with respect to Internet gambling.

Given that Internet gambling is lawful in many countries where U.S. banks have correspondent relationships, it may be particularly difficult to craft workable procedures to prevent individuals in the United States from making payments to a foreign Internet gambling company&#8217-s account at a foreign bank. Moreover, commenters noted that, given the complexity of U.S. gambling law, it is unrealistic for foreign institutions to ascertain which forms of Internet gambling are unlawful and therefore should be prevented.

Many of these cross-border correspondent relationships support large volumes of daily payments that are wholly unrelated to gambling. It seems impractical to require U.S. banks to end these relationships because some small percentage of their overall payments may be directed toward unlawful Internet gambling. Therefore, there may be limited options for dealing with the international banking relationships through which most unlawful Internet gambling transactions are processed without causing significant disruption to international payment flows.

Overblocking. The proposed rule implements the Act&#8217-s overblocking provision by stating that nothing in the regulation is intended to suggest that payment systems or their participants must or should block transactions explicitly excluded from the definition of unlawful Internet gambling. Banks and other payment system participants supported the proposed rule&#8217-s implementation of the Act&#8217-s overblocking provision, stating that the Act does not require that these gambling transactions, or any other transactions, be processed, but, instead, simply requires that the regulation itself not mandate that these gambling transactions be blocked. Some of these commenters indicated that, even before the Act&#8217-s passage, they had decided to avoid processing any gambling transactions, even if lawful, because these transactions were not sufficiently profitable to warrant the higher risk they posed. In contrast, some organizations representing gaming interests commented that the rule should require payment system participants to process transactions excluded from the Act&#8217-s definition of unlawful Internet gambling. Certain gaming interests recommended that the rule&#8217-s policies and procedures for card systems at a minimum include the establishment of separate merchant category codes for the types of gambling that are not defined as unlawful under the Act. As noted in the proposal, the Agencies believe that the Act does not provide the Agencies with the authority to require designated payment systems or participants in these systems to process any gambling transactions, including those transactions excluded from the Act&#8217-s definition of unlawful Internet gambling, if a system or participant decides for business reasons not to process such transactions. Nor do we possess any other authority that would allow us to do so.

Conclusion

In recent years, funding Internet gambling through the U.S. payment system has become more difficult, due in large part to steps card issuers and money transmitting businesses have already taken on their own initiative to prevent these transactions. Board and Treasury staffs are currently focused on developing a final rule that leverages existing practices to prevent unlawful Internet gambling transactions and provides additional and reasonably practical examples of actions that U.S. payment system participants can take to further impede the flow of restricted transactions through the U.S. payment system. As the comments to the proposed rule make clear, this is a challenging task, and the ability of the final rule to achieve a substantial further reduction in the use of the U.S. payment system for unlawful Internet gambling is uncertain. As part of this effort, we are carefully considering all comments received on the proposed rule and determining what modifications may be appropriate in light of the issues raised by those comments. Our objective is to craft a rule to implement the Act as effectively as possible in a manner that does not have a substantial adverse effect on the efficiency of the nation&#8217-s payment system.

I would welcome any questions that the Committee members may have.

Re-read Mikes testimony slowly, and then youll get which consumers need(s) prediction market journalism should fulfill.

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Mike Linksvayer:

Small comforts of prediction markets

Mike Linksvayer &#8212- November 19th, 2007

Yesterday I had dinner with a friend I hadn’t seen for a few years. I asked what he’d been doing, apart from being a nerd, and he said he’d been spending too much time following the U.S. presidential campaigns (actually just the Ron Paul campaign, but that’s not particularly relevant here). I realized that I don’t do this anymore. It could be because I’m maturing, but I’ll give credit to prediction markets.

Most of the yapping in the media is about the horse race and personalities, which I don’t care about, other than the status of the former. Instead I check prices at Intrade most days, which gives me a more accurate and much more concise status update than any amount of time spent reading or watching commentary.

Furthermore, betting that candidates I detest will win and against candidates I mind less, even in small amounts, really helps me not waste time thinking (mostly distressed thoughts) about the election.

So thank you prediction markets for the time and peace of mind!

Mike&#8217-s post is the most important piece of wisdom ever published about the prediction markets since the creation of the Iowa Electronic Markets in 1988.

Hence, I propose that the meager but smiling Mike Linksvayer be made the mascot of the prediction markets.

Mike Linksvayer

Mike Linksvayer&#8217-s profile at Midas Oracle

Meet Jeffrey Ma (at right on the photo), the ProTrade co-founder, and whose gambling life is the basis of the upcoming movie, 21.

No GravatarJeffrey Ma

ProTrade

(Justin Wolfers was a ProTrade adviser at inception, but his name was later removed from their website.)

Previously: The Jock Exchange: Wall Street is about to launch a new way to trade professional athletes the way you trade stocks.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • “We’ll be eight degrees hotter in 30 or 40 years and basically none of the crops will grow.” “Most of the people will have died and the rest of us will be cannibals,” said Turner, 69. “Civilization will have broken down. The few people left will be living in a failed state —like Somalia or Sudan— and living conditions will be intolerable.”
  • QUESTION TO THE READERS: Could anyone guess what Nassim Nicholas Taleb would think of the prediction markets?
  • YouTube Videos on Prediction Markets
  • The Prime Minister of Ireland has just said he will resign, but neither InTrade nor BetFair would give the first fig.
  • How have Jason Ruspini’s tax futures markets at InTrade-TradeSports fared, so far?