UPDATE: No. Nigel Eccles of HubDub is “-the one in the white shirt towards the back right hand of the shot”-, “-enthusiastically trying to pitch Richard Tyler of the Daily Telegraph”- who is opposite Nigel.
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Folks, do watch this short (but non-embeddable) video.
Jason Ruspini or Michael Giberson, please provide some pointers, if you have time. Thanks.
UPDATE: See their brainy comments, just below.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
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BetFair:
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Details.
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The Brain has a comment on Scott Page’-s presentation [PPT file] about his book, The Difference:
One question is whether there is a way to usefully systematize that principle by trader selection or via something other than a strict market such as an (incentivised) weighted average system like HP’s BRAIN. The latter type of system will work better in some domains but in general might be less robust because it constantly runs the danger of being overfit to past trader correlations (or apparent expertise, risk appetites, etc). In general, trader self-selection and self-weighting might be more accurate. If you have some metric of “fundamental” trader similarity like proximity, org chart relations, demographic data – as opposed to past trading correlations only, that might work better in terms of expert-selection/expert-weighting.
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
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Unlike InTrade and NewsFutures, BetFair does not deliver any chart after that the prediction market has expired —-leaving the blog post that linked to it totally blank (in a digital world where old content is King, and where Google sends traffic to old blog posts).
The BetFair marketing department is staffed by arrogant incompetents who are incapable of establishing a working relationship with prediction market bloggers like me.
There is nothing more important for our industry than the uprising of new blogs that would hot-link to the charts of prediction markets. The BetFair marketing team hasn’-t computed that yet, in spite of all efforts made in their direction.
Of all the prediction market firms I talk with, BetFair is the most impermeable to the prediction market approach: their degree of arrogance is inversely proportional to their level of competency.
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Emile’-s made up a phrase that means nothing (except in his fertile imagination), “-a proprietary prediction market variant“- —-sounds like a red herring to me.
Unlike Consensus Point, Inkling Markets and Xpree, NewsFutures is the only prediction market software vendor not to have adopted Robin Hanson’-s MSR —-a simplified trading technology now in use in most enterprise prediction markets.
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Makes sense, doc.
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Doc, I didn’-t say that “-this effort by Starbucks somehow implies a devaluation of enterprise prediction markets.”- I said that it implies a devaluation of the enterprise prediction markets that are overhyped as intra-corporation communication tools —-I’-m of course fine with them used as forecasting tools, which is our collective goal from day one (IEM in 1988). The complexity of prediction markets is bearable if and only if they are a bit more accurate than the other mechanisms. Now, if the objective is to get feedback and suggestions from employees, no need to pay for this complexity —-a simple voting mechanism is more than enough and will do the trick.
In that regard, I would point to Xpree, which use that simple, voting mechanism when and where it makes sense to use it.
Mat Fogarty is well versed in the discipline of forecasting, and should be listened to more, here, I believe.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
Phil Gordon on Poker
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
Via Nolan Chart, The Hill.
The bankers‘- association cheers, but I see many lobbies (including the NFL) that prefer the status quo.
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I have just spent 20 minutes reading the comments on that post. (The post itself is to be forgotten- all the comments are outstanding, though.)
Insightful thoughts about Internet marketing. Required reading for Mark Davies, John Delaney, Emile Servan-Schreiber, and the rest of our little prediction market clique.
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