You cant measure the usefulness of a system by how many resources it consumes.

No GravatarMakes sense, doc.

Doc, I didn&#8217-t say that &#8220-this effort by Starbucks somehow implies a devaluation of enterprise prediction markets.&#8221- I said that it implies a devaluation of the enterprise prediction markets that are overhyped as intra-corporation communication tools &#8212-I&#8217-m of course fine with them used as forecasting tools, which is our collective goal from day one (IEM in 1988). The complexity of prediction markets is bearable if and only if they are a bit more accurate than the other mechanisms. Now, if the objective is to get feedback and suggestions from employees, no need to pay for this complexity &#8212-a simple voting mechanism is more than enough and will do the trick.

In that regard, I would point to Xpree, which use that simple, voting mechanism when and where it makes sense to use it.

Mat Fogarty is well versed in the discipline of forecasting, and should be listened to more, here, I believe.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Red Herring’s list of the top 100 North-American high-tech startups includes Inkling Markets —but not NewsFutures, Consensus Point, or Xpree.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf explains the prediction markets to the countryland people.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.
  • Time magazine interview the 2 BetFair-Tradefair co-founders, and not a single time do they pronounce the magic words, “prediction markets”.
  • One Deep Throat told me that this VC firm might have been connected with the Irish prediction exchange, at inception.
  • BetFair Rapid = BetFair’s standalone, local, PC-based, order-entry software for prediction markets
  • Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

REBUTTAL: SalesForce, StarBucks and Dell demonstrate that enterprise prediction markets as intra-corporation communication tools (as opposed to forecasting tools) are overhyped by the prediction market software vendors and a little clique of uncritical courtisans.

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My Starbucks Idea

Dell&#8217-s IdeaStorm

No need of trading technology to get feedback and suggestions from employees. A simple voting mechanism is more than enough.

Previously: Enterprise prediction markets give voice to serious, technology-minded professionals who really know their vertical (engineers, analysts and contractors) —and reveal how frivolous and unpertinent most horizontal managers are.