–
– YooPick – (a FaceBook application) – (MSR + AMM)
– Yahoo!’-s Yootopia – (?)
–
Poker is popular on FaceBook. So should be the prediction markets.
2
Category Archives: Analysis (Industry)
that growth rate just isn’t as high as I wish it would be.
As soon as that un-informed comment hit Google Reader, I received, in my e-mail inbox, proof that some prediction market vendors are doing very well lately, as prestigious Fortune-500 companies have been joining the ranks of organizations trying out enterprise prediction markets as their internal forecasting tool. Some of these names will be made public later on, I hope.
All the prediction market vendors I know of are bullish.
Coalition for Internal Markets (CIM)
Bo Cowgill:
Google and Yahoo are working with a number of other companies to join us for a larger announcement. We already have some lined up, and are looking for more. Some Midas Oracle readers might have already been contacted or will be contacted shortly —- we are still interested in working together.
Stay tuned! If your company would like to support our effort (or if you know someone at a company that might be interested), please be in touch.
Also:
1. Although our coalition is called “-Coalition for Internal Markets,”- our petition discusses public markets used for business as well.
2. The signatories from Google and Yahoo! were Hal Varian and Preston McAfee, two senior execs and Chief Economists at Google and Yahoo.
The prediction exchanges that have fully embraced the prediction market approach
These prediction exchanges present prices as probabilities (expressed in percentages):
– HubDub
– InTrade .NET …- [*] …- would get the full point if they were to switch the label “-price”- for “-probability”- on their charts.
– NewsFutures …- gets half a point. No mention of “-probabilities”- on their charts.
– Inkling Markets …- gets a quarter of a point.
– TradeFair …- gets an honorable mention, but won’-t show its charts to the non-registered public. 
[*] Which prefigures what InTrade .COM is going to be, soon, if I understood well my Deep Throat’-s tip.
As for the ultra innovative YooPick, is it yet another case of “-do what I say, not what I do“-?…- 
APPENDIX: Lance Fortnow is PMA compatible:
–
UPDATE: See the comments…-
Are you PMA compatible? These 2 researchers are leading the way.
Previously: The prediction market approach
With the premium charges, BetFair is asking the hogs to pony up. However, the collateral damage is that the concept of exchange is stabbed in the back.
–
–
–
A list of the Betfair forum threads about the new premium charges.
A FaceBook group has been created to protest the new BetFair premium charges.
PREVIOUSLY: BetFair impose new “-Premium Charges”-…- Do BetFair gag the critics, too?
One day after BetFairs PR move, the very active event derivative traders are still very displeased by the new BetFair premium charges.
I have re-published yesterday’-s BetFair Q &- A at the bottom of my previous post —-because that’-s the post that Google features, bringing in 300 people a day.
–
My analysis of this PR debacle:
- BetFair has a very complex information technology system, which is very costly, making BetFair less profitable than the fixed-odds betting operators (the big British bookmakers). They attack the problem with a dual approach: they try to lower the IT costs associated with each bet transaction (see FlyWheel Lite), and they try to spot and exploit their most costly customers (hence the premium charges).
- BetFair’-s PR department is made up of friendly, knowledgeable and competent people. However, they are not up to date with BOTH the brand-new web publishing tools AND the brand-new behaviors associated with these tools. In other words, they don’-t grasp the Web —-where velocity and interactivity are 2 factors. Hiring a SEO is not the solution. BetFair should embrace the culture of the Web.
–
A FaceBook group has been created to protest the new BetFair premium charges.
–
Here are some BetFair traders’- takes:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
UPDATE:
A list of the Betfair forum threads about the new premium charges.
–
One Wall Street / Chicago fanboy hopes that political prediction markets will soon be proposed by the established derivative exchanges, who work more professionally than InTrade (in his view).
An event derivative trader compares the trading costs of BetFair, InTrade, TradeSports and MatchBook.
Wikipedia, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, McKinsey, NewsFutures, Google, CFM, Inkling, and IEM, top the Google Web Search results for the prediction markets query.
