How the prediction markets query has been googled, in the last 12 months
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Category Archives: Analysis (Industry)
InTrade DOT NET – www.intrade.net
This post is a very short review of their new website. I might publish a deeper review, later on.
The log line is that InTrade CEO John Delaney has ingested all the innovations that HubDub has brought to the prediction market scene since January 2007 (e.g., long and rich prediction market webpages that are indexed by the search engines, and use of social networking to boost trading) and has asked his technological team to clone those innovations for InTrade. This is great. I also appreciate that their charting system is satisfying. (The advanced charts seem to be of the right size, I have noticed. Neither too small, nor too big.)
On the negative side, the execution is not as good as it should be —-and I’-m polite. But to be fair with them, they say their website is still in “-beta”- —-so let’-s give them time to improve their work.
Overall, it’-s a good move, and it shows, as I have said for months, that Nigel Eccles of HubDub is having a profound impact on the prediction market industry.
UPDATE: I forgot to mention that InTrade.net presents probabilities expressed in percentage, not prices, which they also took from HubDub.
OLYMPIC MEDALS: The Los Angeles Times cites HubDub -but not BetFair, TradeSports, NewsFutures, or YooPick.
Los Angeles Times
Could it be because the journalist had googled “-Olympics”- for his/her research?
HubDub is the only prediction exchange whose prediction market webpages are indexed well by Google.
SEO is key for marketing and P.R., folks —-you see the evidence under your very nose with HubDub and the Olympics.
Presumptuous
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Jed Christiansen will never be a cheerleader for the prediction market industry as long as he holds those wrong views about betting on sports.
InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney and HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles might be seen as “-prediction market gurus”-, at least by some —-I doubt very strongly that many industry people will add Jed in the list, after they have read the conformist bullshit that he sent to the CFTC.
We are still waiting Jed’-s reaction on Sean Park’-s comment. Cat got your tongue, Jed? At other times, we couldn’-t stop you.
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You know what I thought when I first saw that picture (little Fogarty planted next to Master Of Credit Alan Greenspan)?… I thought, well, its about time that the prediction market industry does the product endorsement by celebrity marketing thing. BetFair premiered that with John McCririck.
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TV-famous horse racing pundit: John McCririck.
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John McCririck endorsing BetFair
Why InTrade CEO John Delaney, TradeSports acting CEO John Delaney, BetFair CEO David Yu, HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles and NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber should supplicate me to develop my prediction market journalism project
– 200 web visitors (coming from Google) reached my John Edwards post, published yesterday afternoon (ET).
– 10% of them followed my links to the 2 HubDub prediction markets on John Edwards.
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Remember that those web stats count only the web visitors, not the feed subscribers —-who are more numerous, and whom I focus more on.
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TAKEAWAY: A popular PMJ website, which would associate fresh news and betting recommendations, would send many people to the prediction markets.
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The mainstream media and the classic bloggers will never deal with real-money prediction markets the way they should be dealt with —-for multiple reasons (moral, ethical, legal, etc.). And for other reasons, they will never link to the play-money prediction markets.
Look Justin Wolfers at the Wall Street Journal: He is the most excited about prediction markets. Yet, he does not link to InTrade directly. He does not link to the InTrade real-money prediction markets. Hence, his blah blah blah does not translate into more revenues for InTrade.
What it takes is a brand-new media organization, entirely devoted to prediction markets, and run by die-hard prediction market people.
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Please, guys, help me.
- cfm |-at-| midasoracle |.|-com-|
- chrisfmasse |-at-| gmail |.|-com-|
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Why the HubDub model is superior to the InTrade, TradeSports, BetFair, HSX and NewsFuturess ones
Because HubDub is the only prediction exchange whose prediction market webpages are indexed highly by Google.
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That query leads to that prediction market webpage.
That query leads to that prediction market webpage.
That query leads to that prediction market webpage.
That query leads to that prediction market webpage.
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In the 4 cases above, you can spot HubDub in the top 10 Google results.
I speculate that HubDub is going to harvest hundreds of thousands of Google visits in the next 12 months.
Which is probably higher that the BetFair blog will get from Google —-and there is a low conversion rate (from the BetFair blog to the BetFair prediction market webpages), probably. With the HubDub model, the conversion rate is always 100%.
Nigel Eccles, this time, I am impressed.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- Testing the new HubDub chart widgets
- Why InTrade CEO John Delaney, TradeSports acting CEO John Delaney, BetFair CEO David Yu, HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles and NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber should supplicate me to develop my prediction market journalism project
- The John Edwards Non-Affair: How on Earth did they get this photo, what does this photo prove, and which prediction markets should we trade on to profit from this alledged scandal?
- Nick Davis’ effort to clean up British horse racing
- Free Money On The Table At InTrade
- Google Web Search shows that I am the only blogger in the world to talk about “prediction market journalism”.
- Marginal Revolution vs. Freakonomics vs. Overcoming Bias vs. Midas Oracle
I am dropping BetFair from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets -until they re-establish the direct links, from their 2 frontpages, to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.
No direct links to the BetFair prediction markets on politics, finance, and else.
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No direct links to the BetFair prediction markets on politics, finance, and else.
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So, this is my last post on BetFair till they fix their 2 frontpages and put back the direct links to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.
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APPENDIX: Here’-s my July 2008 message to the CFTC where I said that TradeSports and BetFair are (”-were”-, in the case of BetFair, now) doing good, and sending some of the liquidity (which they acquire with sports) on the socially valuable prediction markets. See also what I said to BusinessWeek.
When the CFTC look at the 2 BetFair frontpages, they will now get to the conclusion that Chris Masse is an idiot, who was probably paid to talk up BetFair.
Thank you, BetFair.
Appreciated.
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I dropped BetFair from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets. They should re-establish the direct links, from their 2 frontpages, to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.
No direct links to the BetFair prediction markets on politics, finance, and else.
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No direct links to the BetFair prediction markets on politics, finance, and else.
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So, I won’-t blog anymore on BetFair (other than re-publishing up this post) till they fix their 2 frontpages and put back the direct links to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.
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APPENDIX: Here’-s my July 2008 message to the CFTC where I said that TradeSports and BetFair are (”-were”-, in the case of BetFair, now) doing good, and sending some of the liquidity (which they acquire with sports) on the socially valuable prediction markets. See also what I said to BusinessWeek.
When the CFTC look at the 2 BetFair frontpages, they will now get to the conclusion that Chris Masse is an idiot, who was probably paid to talk up BetFair.
Thank you, BetFair.
Appreciated.
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I did drop BetFair from the Midas Oracle coverage of the prediction markets. They should re-establish the direct links, from their 2 frontpages, to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.
No direct links to the BetFair prediction markets on politics, finance, and else.
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No direct links to the BetFair prediction markets on politics, finance, and else.
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So, I won’-t blog anymore on BetFair (other than re-publishing up this post) till they fix their 2 frontpages and put back the direct links to the prediction markets on politics, finance, and the other socially valuable issues.
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APPENDIX: Here’-s my July 2008 message to the CFTC where I said that TradeSports and BetFair are (”-were”-, in the case of BetFair, now) doing good, and sending some of the liquidity (which they acquire with sports) on the socially valuable prediction markets. See also what I said to BusinessWeek.
When the CFTC look at the 2 BetFair frontpages, they will now get to the conclusion that Chris Masse is an idiot, who was probably paid to talk up BetFair.
Thank you, BetFair.
Appreciated.
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