Wikipedia-style collective Intelligence didnt kill Google Web Search.

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I blogged about how Wikipedia killed Encarta (the encyclopedia published by MicroSoft).

Today, here&#8217-s a report on the demise of Wikia &#8212-a search engine partially powered by human input (a la Wikipedia), and co-founded by Jimmy Wales. The Wired article lists all the search engine startups (Snap, PowerSet, Cuil, etc.) that miserably failed to dent into Google&#8217-s de facto monopoly.

Get Rich Quick – InTrades new marketing trick

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Buy John McCain at the end of 2007 (at around 5), sell high in 2008 &#8212-and get rich quick. That is what Bethan and her husband (Jonathan) did.

Today, InTrade CEO John Delaney is trying to milk out this get-rich-quick story (or a similar enough story). His message: You, too, can get rich quick&#8230- &#8212-what it takes is just registering your credit card with InTrade. :-D

What the InTrade CEO doesn&#8217-t tell you is that luck was a factor in Bethan&#8217-s sudden enrichment. Nothing wrong with tapping chance &#8212-but honesty should have prompted John Delaney to mention it. And you will notice the absence of information for the x axis (the time). Marketing and honesty are 2 words that don&#8217-t mix well in Ireland.

ADDENDUM:

ABC video

YouTube video

How to join Midas Oracle -and why.

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How To Become A Midas Oracle Author

The Uniqueness Of Midas Oracle

  1. We publish the best mutant ideas.
  2. We link out a lot to external resources.

How To Join Us

#1. We are interested in recruiting you as a volunteer, if you have an interest in prediction markets (and collective intelligence). Be sure to read and understand (:-D ) the ABOUT, MISSION, CODE OF CONDUCT, and TERMS OF USE webpages. Guest blogging on Midas Oracle can help you get traffic to your website and increase its PageRank.

#2. You may either register yourself as a comment author, disclosing your full name (or not), or send your application (as a comment author or as a post/page author) to Chris Masse &#8212-see our CONTACT page. When you register, do create your account using your first name and last name, such as &#8220-john-doe&#8221-. The login is at the bottom of the sidebar.

#3. Registered members of Midas Oracle will receive an e-mail newsletter once in a while &#8212-only when important circumstances warrant. (There are e-mail options on your profile page, inside the Midas Oracle system, which allows you to opt out of mass e-mails, if you really need to.)

#4. To have your status upgraded from comment author to post/page author, contact Chris Masse.

#5. To have your name removed from Midas Oracle, send your resignation to the blog administrator (Chris Masse), and he will delete your profile from the blog database.

How To Publish Your Ideas On Midas Oracle

How To Publish

How To Comment

InTrades prediction markets on skyscrapers

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– the opening date of the Freedom Tower in New York-

– the opening date of the Chicago Spire.

I like that. I remember requesting this kind of prediction markets two years ago, to another exchange &#8212-to no avail.

Exchanges should create much more delivery date prediction markets &#8212-about buildings, cars, software, etc.

Microgaming poker trouble: $5,300,000 owed to players of failed licensee, and a deafening silence from the oldest software provider in the business

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This post is long even by my standards, but please bear with me as it&#8217-s significant news on several levels. It is an extension of the Microgaming poker scandal article I wrote for my own site, with some additional material but with graphics removed.

Let me kick off by commenting generally on the relationship between a provider of online gambling software and the players who ultimately end up using it:

Techinically speaking, there is none. The provider licenses the software to a client- the client then offers the software to players, and the provider is not a part of this latter relationship. This is a contractual fact, and it makes sense as well – if you sell fresh fish to an outlet, and the outlet leaves the fish on the shelves too long, resulting in poisoned customers, it is not your fault. It&#8217-s logical.

And yet, software providers DO take responsibility, at various levels of involvement, for their players, notwithstanding their lack of legal or contractual requirement to so do. Why do they do this?

Without preempting any of my more detailed comments further down the page, the simple reason is that it makes business sense- it imbues the provider&#8217-s indirect player customers with fundemental confidence in the product, and this has great reciprocal value.

Provider says: &#8220-you&#8217-ll be safe here&#8221-.

Player says: &#8220-thanks- I&#8217-ll play&#8221-.

Players are safe, provider makes money. That is the basic premise at work here.

So: onwards.

Microgaming Poker was launched in 2003, an offshoot of online gambling software provider Microgaming. Originally called &#8220-Prima Poker&#8221-, it was rebranded to reflect the provider&#8217-s name in 2006.

Microgaming is one of the oldest software providers in the business, having opened its doors way back in 1994. It has, to a date, a one hundred percent record of bailing out players from failed licensees – I will go into in more detail about this further on.

The Wikipedia Mirogaming entry makes interesting reading:

In late February 2008, twenty-seven Microgaming-powered poker rooms closed when their licensee Tusk Investment Corporation Limited went into insolvent liquidation, leaving all players who had funds in those rooms to claim as unsecured creditors in the liquidation.

It is not yet known whether players will recover any of their money.

Sounds intruiging.

The first sign of trouble was an apparently innocuous report issued on 15th February 2008 by eCOGRA, an ostensible online gambling inspectorate, initiated and part-funded by Microgaming, and which endorses most of the the Microgaming operations:

An onsite review was recently conducted by eCOGRA`s Compliance and Advisory Services staff at the operations for the following casinos as part of a normal seal renewal process:

Challenge – www.challengecasino.com
Golden Reef – www.goldenreefcasino.com
I Big Casino – www.ibigcasino.com
Music Hall – www.musichallcasino.com
Nostalgia – www.nostalgiacasino.com
UK Casino Club – www.ukcasinoclub.com

The audit revealed failures in compliance with eCOGRA`s Generally Accepted Practices. It has therefore been decided to suspend these seals pending further investigation.

During the discussions about the above eCOGRA statement on the Casinomeister player forums, a representative for the casino group in question popped in for this update:

We have been in discussions with eCogra and these purely administrative issues will be resolved shortly.

In no way has our honesty, integrity or customer service been questioned and our reputation speaks for itself!

We are expecting our eCogra seals will be reinstated very soon, but in the meantime it is business as usual.

Since eCOGRA&#8217-s announcement had been so innocuous, this didn&#8217-t seem at all unreasonable.

Unfortunately, the whole operation was gone seven days later.

The following Tusk licence termination statement was reported by a prominent online gambling commentator:

Company Statement:

Microgaming announces that it has terminated its software licence with Tusk Investment Corporation – with immediate effect, after having received Tusk&#8217-s notification of its plans to put the Company into liquidation.

Microgaming is presently gathering all facts related to this matter and will provide further announcements as and when information becomes available.&#8217-

About Tusk

Tusk Investment Corporation Limited operates a number of casino sites and poker rooms:

Casinos:

Challenge Casino
Golden Reef Casino
Music Hall Casino
Nostalgia Casino
UK Casino Club
Big Casino

Poker rooms:

Battlefield Poker
Royal Card Club
Red Nines
Arctic Poker
Raw Poker
Poker.ie
Daily Poker
Flush Draw Poker
Will Bet Poker
Bet Road Poker
Grand Central Poker
Off The Rail Poker
Privy Poker
Berserk Poker
Atomik Poker
Dave&#8217-s Poker Room
Hetman Poker
Hot Pepper Poker
Poker Seas
TilttAA Poker
Loose Games Poker
CPT Gaming Poker
Ice Bear Poker
GoHard Poker
Caya Poker
Mr Urban Poker
Poker Sweden
Euro Poker Dream

Blimey.

What was that eCOGRA told us?

The audit revealed failures in compliance with eCOGRA`s Generally Accepted Practices.

Well, I can only say that this was one hell of a &#8220-compliance failure&#8221- which led to the collapse of fully 34 casinos and poker rooms. Way to go, eCOGRA. Any chance of a slightly more accurate statement next time? &#8220-Licensee dead in the water&#8221- would have been a tad more accurate than &#8220-compliance issues&#8221-.

Anyway, to cut to the chase: liquidators were appointed for the Tusk group, as reported by Microgaming in their 20th March company statement, and those six casinos in the previous Microgaming statement, which had player liabilities of $194,000 in total, were taken over by another group.

That another group took over the defunct casinos was good.

Unfortunately, the good news stopped there.

The liabilities to the poker players was a bit more. A little over $5,000,000 more, to be precise.

To be even more precise, the total poker player liability was $5,312,923. Five million, three hundred and twelve thousand, nine hundred and twenty three dollars.

It is therefore maybe not so surprising that a buyer did not come forward for the poker rooms in the way that the casino buyer did.

But what about the customers of the twenty eight poker rooms? Who is responsible for paying these players their balances?

These poker rooms were all &#8220-skins&#8221-, or &#8220-white labels&#8221-, of Tusk Investment Corportation, operating their poker branch under the name &#8220-My Poker Profit&#8221-. Skins are glorified affiliate sites which send players to the parent company (in this case, Tusk) but with no access to player funds, the financial side being handled exclusively by the parent company. The &#8220-skin&#8221- has information on player numbers and maybe other relatively trivial matters, but they have no control over the finances.

For an excellent Tusk operator&#8217-s description of the skin concept, and other relevant matters, see the open letter to Microgaming at the 2+2 forum written by one of the skin owners, Red Nines Poker:

At the end of 2005, Rednines contacted Microgaming (then named Prima Poker) to explore the possibilities of becoming a skin into the Microgaming network.

We were advised by Microgaming to contact Tusk to get a deal through them instead, since they had a deal in place with Microgaming which made it possible for new partners to get a skin up and running within days.

This process is known as a white label solution, which means that our work on Rednines.com would basically be to get players, and get a revenue share of these players. In other words, Tusk / MyPokerProfit.com would take care of everything from Payment Gateways, holding on to player funds, dealing with Microgaming and handling customer support.

The only information we had access to was the players signed up through Rednines.com, we could see their names, emails and their current rake. We had no way of even making a deposit to a players account without going through Tusk / MyPokerProfit first. In fact any poker room related issue had to go through TUSK.

Let me interrupt the narrative here to add a personal comment on &#8220-skins&#8221-:

Skins are nothing but bad news for the player. They create endless confusion through lack of any real clarity about the parent company, the result of which is that the players end up being completely misled with regard to who is responsible for their money. In this case, clients of &#8220-Battlefield Poker&#8221- thought that &#8220-Battlefield Poker&#8221- held their money and paid them- some, in fact, thought Microgaming held their money- NOBODY knew the truth, that Tusk Investment Corporation held their money, because noone told them, and the Tusk involvement would have been buried deep in the terms and conditions at best, if it was mentioned at all. Here are a couple of representative comments made by players in the lengthy discussion at the 2+2 poker forums:

where are the player&#8217-s bankrolls held?

are cashouts/deposits done through microgaming as a whole or is each skin seperate in that regard?

Sorry fella, wrong on both counts.

So is Tusk or Microgaming holding the players&#8217- money currently?

Getting closer, but they still don&#8217-t know.

So, total player confusion.

I have heard the absurd justification that skins serve a &#8220-niche&#8221- market- for example, if I am a one-legged Mongolian crocodile trainer, I would like to play at a gambling operation called &#8220-One Legged Mongolian Crocodile Trainers&#8221- more than &#8220-Ladbrokes&#8221- or &#8220-William Hill&#8221-. What absolute nonsense. How do our professions or hobbies dictate our preference for the name of the gambling operations we patronise?

Skins serve one thing alone: the gambling industry. They allow individual operations to effectively transform and mutate into any number of other operations, with apparently distinct identities and all the adherent marketing and profit potential for the original parent companies.

For the player, they create nothing but confusion and trouble.

Or, in this case, the loss of $5,300,000.

Anyway, moving on:

The poker side of the Tusk collapse has been discussed at huge length in the monumental 27 Microgaming skins to close discussion at the 2+2 forum. I have not read every one of the 3000+ posts, but what I have read represents little useful information- for the most part, players are expressing their general confusion and anger, and a hope that their balances will not be lost.

One startling fact to emerge from the discussion is that the skin operators appear to have been treated with the same scant disregard by software provider Microgaming as the players. If you look again at the Red Nines open letter:

Rednines.com is no longer running, along with BattlefieldPoker.com and several other white label solutions of Tusk / MyPokerProfit. Microgaming has not reached out to us, nor have we been able to get a hold of anyone with a say in Microgaming that could help us solve what happened. Even though it is several months since Tusk went bankrupt we have at several occasions tried to get a hold of someone that could take responsibility for what happened – unfortunately without success.

I have been told by many that they feel Rednines.com should pay up for player balances and their losses, and I can understand their frustration. The problem is that we never saw any of these deposits, we simply got a revenue share for our players rake. This was around $25,000 gross profit every month for the months we were operative. Microgaming was actually making a bigger profit than us on our players.

I would like to see Microgaming take a stand in this matter, and be the responsible party, which means they should pay for the player balances.

This latter feeling is also expressed by the players, some of whom took it for granted that Microgaming would honour their balances – these comments are taken from the mighty 2+2 thread:

I believe Microgaming has covered players&#8217- balances when things like this have happened with casinos running their software before.

All the balances are covered by Micro Gaming.

Microgaming has been around since before online poker, and I don&#8217-t think a player has ever lost money when one of their casinos or poker rooms shut down. I&#8217-m sure your money is safe.

In this case I would think that Microgaming would step in to cover player balances, and as such your money should be safe.

I really doubt that Microgaming will allow the money in accounts to be lost.

Unfortunately, notwithstanding the opinions and hopes of both players and skin operators alike, Microgaming has failed to communicate.

In mid-2008, six months after Tusk / My Poker Profit collapsed, Microgaming received a letter from a lawyer representing one of the players who had a large investment, notifying them of a proposed court action. The player in question reported the matter in this short 2+2 post:

My dad sent microgaming a letter notifying them he was intending to take them to court. Within 4 days he got a response from a firm in Toronto (they have hired legal counsel already) saying they take no responsibility and that our accusations against them were erroneous.

So: no comment from Microgaming, apart from one denial of responsibility when they were forced to respond.

Earlier on I mentioned the provider / player relationship, and the responsibilities thereof. Now would be a good time to start to consider them in detail.

Two questions to consider:

Is Microgaming going to honour the balances of the players involved in the Tusk collapse?

They may yet, but it doesn&#8217-t look good. They have been uncommunicative to all involved parties, and the one occasion that they chose to break silence was to deny any responsability. It may be the case that they are waiting for the liquidation to run its course, at which point they&#8217-ll survey the damage and take the necessary remedial action.

However, since they know the numbers involved from the liquidation report (see below), they know exactly the extent of their potential liability and should therefore be able to give some sort of indication of their intentions. The fact that they have not done so suggests to me that they are not planning on making the players whole.

So it&#8217-s not looking good.

Should Microgaming honour these balances?

This one&#8217-s easy: yes. Microgaming should compensate the poker customers of failed licensee Tusk Investment Corporation, notwithstanding the fact that, as the software provider, they have no legal liability. There are two reasons for this:

In the first place, it&#8217-s the right thing to do and they&#8217-ve done it before.

It&#8217-s the right thing to do because the players are, at the end of the day, customers of Microgaming. As I said in my opening remarks, players, for their part, have the confidence of knowing that, whichever licensee or skin they&#8217-re patronising, they are safe because Microgaming is safe. Good for Microgaming, good for the players.

And yes, it&#8217-s happened before:

When the Tropika group failed in 2001, Microgaming paid – see the Microgaming to pay all Tropika players thread from Winneronline.

When Goodfellas Casino failed, Microgaming paid – see the Goodfellas thread at Winneronline.

On these occasions, Microgaming did the right thing and should receive all due credit.

Why would they not now?

Aside from the moral responsibility and the good business sense of helping – and the potentially disastrous business consequences of not – there is another slightly less altruistic reason for expecting a provider hand up on this one:

Microgaming directed the skins to Tusk in the first place.

Look again at the open letter at 2+2:

We met Microgaming and their representatives at a hotel in London in early 2006 in connection with the ICE gaming show. During this meeting Microgaming stressed the fact that they were backlogged in the process of accepting and adding new skins to their network already.

We were then advised by Microgaming to contact Tusk (also known as MyPokerProfit.com) to get a deal through them instead, since they had a deal in place with Microgaming which made it possible for new partners to get a skin up and running within days.

This was far away from what we would prefer. Maybe we are guilty of being naive, but as Microgaming said it was an easy way to join the network, and Tusk/MyPokerProfits way of doing business was condoned by Microgaming themselves. This made the deal seem legit and secure for us.

In addition to this, Microgaming said that once we were integrated in Tusk/MyPokerProfit’s system, it would be an easy process to re-convert us over to Microgaming as a regular partner once their queue was less backlogged.

So, Microgaming specifically directed these potential skin customers to Tusk.

And Tusk failed.

If you look at the liquidator&#8217-s report to creditors, you can see that during the financial year in which Microgaming recommended Tusk to skins Battlefiend and Red Nines, they were hardly doing well, with a total profit of $282,000 for the year – you can see screenshots of the relevant pages in the liquidation report section of my other article.

Maybe in late 2005, when Microgaming made the Tusk recommendation to these skins, they were doing less badly.

Or maybe they only had the 2005 report to go by, which may have been better.

Or maybe Microgaming knew that Tusk was struggling, and tried to help by sending them skin customers. Eeek, now there&#8217-s a thought.

Or maybe they didn&#8217-t look at the figures at all?

However, at the end of the day, Microgaming recommended Tusk, which was NOT the solution that at least two of the skins wanted, preferring a direct arrangement with Microgaming whereby THEY would take care of THEIR players in all matters, financial and otherwise. These potential licensees did not want to hand over these key aspects to an unknown third party, such as Tusk. They wanted a responsibiity that they were denied – look again at Red Nines&#8217-s comment:

This was far away from what we would prefer. Maybe we are guilty of being naive, but as Microgaming said it was an easy way to join the network, and Tusk/MyPokerProfits way of doing business was condoned by Microgaming themselves. This made the deal seem legit and secure for us.

And now, these skin partners themselves are owed money by Tusk – $1,522,649 to be precise.

So quite the charming little disaster all round.

Assuming Microgaming fails to honour the players, they can they expect to receive around fifteen percent of their balances from the liquidation – if you look again at the liquidation report, you&#8217-ll see that there is $1,400,000 cash in the bank against the $9,000,000 total creditor, or about 15%.

Of that $9,000,000, the sum total of the poker player balances is a cool $5,312,923.

Hopefully, Microgaming will break silence on this and offer to compensate the affected players. If they do not, it will be their first failure in these circumstances, and it will send a big, fat, red warning to players that their deposits at Microgaming operations are no longer as safe as they once were.

It may be of interest to note the full list of Microgaming poker clients.

The point of saying that is not to warn players against patronising the listed operations – some, like Ladbrokes, are big names and very solid.

The point is to be aware that should any of them fail, it must not be automatically assumed that Microgaming will bail out the players, as once was the case- as such, players should not simply rely on the name of Microgaming when choosing to play there.

I will be keeping on top of ths matter, and will report any developments.

The Washington state legislature might change the law specifically to put Betcha out of business.

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Nick Jenkins:

This week, the state House of Representatives is considering a bill that would broaden the legal definition of gambling to make the company I founded, Seattle-based Betcha.com, illegal. Supported by the Washington State Gambling Commission and Sen. Margarita Prentice, SB 6103 flew through the state Senate in less than two weeks. The House of Representatives can put a stop to this latest chapter in the state government’s persecution of its own. It should.

Betcha’s story to date would bring a smile to the face of any Third World despot. A few years ago I came up with the idea of a social betting network – think Ebay meets Facebook in Las Vegas. All wagering was honor-based- bettors were not obligated to pay their losses, but if they didn’t they risked receiving negative feedback. I researched the law for months, raised capital, opened an office, and hired employees to develop a website. Thirteen days after we launched, the WSGC told me to shut down or else. When I sued for the right to operate, the WSGC enlisted authorities in Louisiana to teach me a lesson in who’s boss. Two months later, Governor Gregoire, who yesterday wagered very publicly on the Gonzaga-North Carolina game, extradited me and two Betcha employees to Louisiana as felony fugitives, even though she knew or should have known we’d never been to the Bayou State and had a lawsuit pending over the legality of the very action for which we were being extradited. Three trips to jail and sixteen months later, a state Court of Appeals ruled I was right all along- that there was “no logical basis” to believe Betcha bettors were gambling- that the WSGC’s position was contradicted by the “plain language” of the Gambling Act and its own literature- and that Betcha lacked “the essence” of gambling. The WSGC is appealing its loss to the state supreme court.

SB 6103 pushes an already gruesome story into Pulp Fiction territory, and for no reason. Betcha’s upside is extreme. According to a 1999 estimate, Americans casually wager roughly $400 billion annually amongst themselves on sports alone. Betcha would tap into that money pot as well as the billions now being bet on pop culture staples like American Idol and the Academy Awards. People will continue to wager- all 6103 would do is keep Washingtonians from capitalizing on it. No doubt some enterprising entrepreneur in a free state will steal the idea, thanking the Washington legislature all the way to NASDAQ. The tax dollars that would flow into Washington’s treasury will flow to some other state.

There’s no need for SB 6103, either. Given Betcha’s story to date, no entrepreneur considering a business that even rhymes with online gambling would stay here. Tribal interests don’t need protecting: Betcha offers none of the games their casinos offer, and since our focus is global, the customer overlap is minimal. SB 6103 is not needed to prevent an increase in bookmaking: as a person-to-person betting exchange, Betcha cuts out the bookmaker. Because Betcha’s customers may opt out of their bets (that’s the “honor-based” part), they won’t lose the rent money. And judging by the public support for the 2006 law that turned online gamblers into Class C felons – that is, none (1I2I3) – the people of Washington wouldn’t support SB 6103 if they knew about it.

If nothing else, the legislature should back off 6103 to keep from making dubious history. To my knowledge, no state legislature has ever changed the law specifically to put one of its own out of business, at least not without the urging of either the competition or the public. Lawmakers can at least wait until the judicial process runs its course. Governor Gregoire couldn’t wait. The legislature need not repeat her mistake.

Previously:

Nick Jenkins

What the Washington Court of Appeals ruled:

Because losers always had the right to click a button marked &#8220-I refuse to pay,&#8221- there was no guarantee that any money would actually change hands, the court said. &#8220-Accordingly, there is nothing risked, which is the essence of both the common law and statutory definition of &#8216-gambling,&#8217- &#8221- wrote Judge C.C. Bridgewater for the Court of Appeals Division II.

PDF file of the court&#8217-s decision.

Nick Jenkins of Betcha.com

Midas Oracle archives on Betcha

Background on the Betcha case

Nick Jenkins&#8217- LinkedIn profile

The copy of the original Betcha website:

Betcha.com

Betcha.com is the world&#8217-s first honor-based, person-to-person betting platform. We connect people who like to bet. Betcha works like an auction site, minus the hassles and inventory. As a Betcha bettor, you: (a) offer and accept bet propositions on anything that comes to mind- (b) negotiate and counteroffer odds with would-be betting partners- then (c) settle your bets when the time comes &#8212- shipping, handling, and trip to the post office not required. For bettors who prefer to just place their bets and be done with it, we offer Pools. As an open, honor-based betting platform, Betcha is like an auction site, Las Vegas, a marketplace of ideas, and The Golden Rule &#8212- all rolled into one. [1]

Betting on Betcha offers several advantages over betting with a bookie or on an illegal offshore gambling site &#8212- not the least of which is that you aren&#8217-t limited to our odds, spreads and subject matters. And in contrast to gambling venues, we like to think Betcha does our bettors (and society) some good. About the only way Betcha resembles gambling venues is its requirement that bettors must fund their accounts to obtain betting privileges. [2]

Our founder [Nick Jenkins, a former lawyer], a non-gambler but eager social bettor (click here to view his blog, here to view bets he&#8217-s offering), conceived of Betcha as a place to meet other people who like a friendly wager (in his case, mostly wagers on the PGA Tour). Betcha is owned by Internet Community &amp- Entertainment Corp., a privately-held corporation. We are located in Seattle, Washington and began matching bettors in June 2007.

[1] &#8220-The Golden Rule&#8221- refers to the idea that you should do unto others as you&#8217-d have them do unto you. It is the fundamental principle behind most of the world&#8217-s major religions. And while we aren&#8217-t here to push religion on anyone, doing well by others is a principle we&#8217-d like to see more of. (Read more about our social mission.)

[2] This requirement guarantees that your betting opponents actually have the money they bet. It also protects you from getting into financial trouble: unlike betting with your local bookmaker, you can never bet more than you have.

Betcha

Betcha FAQ:

[…] It&#8217-s not run by shady characters in the Caribbean. Most online betting sites are run by expats hanging out in the Caribbean. Betcha&#8217-s location &#8212- out in the open, Seattle, Washington. It&#8217-s legal. Because betting on Betcha operates on the honor system, it does not meet the legal definition of gambling. No gambling &#8212- n
o orange jump suits.

Overview:

There are two types of bets on the Betcha Platform: person-to-person bets &#8212- the ones where bettors bet at arms length against other bettors &#8212- and Pools, in which one host(ess) lets bettors take any of a number of positions on a given proposition.

Is this legal?

Yes. There are at least five reasons why the Betcha Platform falls outside legal [prohibitions] against gambling. While most of them are technical legalese, one isn&#8217-t &#8212- it isn&#8217-t &#8220-gambling.&#8221- Although there are a few variations in [syntax] depending on the jurisdiction, the legal (and common sense) definition of &#8220-gambling,&#8221- at bottom, requires that you (1) risk (2) something of value (3) on the result of a future event beyond your control. Betting that doesn&#8217-t have all of these elements may be betting, but it isn&#8217-t &#8220-gambling&#8221- and, therefore, isn&#8217-t illegal.

You are already familiar with some betting that isn&#8217-t gambling. For example, if you run a race against a friend for $100, you control the outcome, so while you&#8217-re betting, you aren&#8217-t gambling. (Element [3] is not met.) When you make a handshake gentlemen&#8217-s bet for no money on a football game, you are betting, but not gambling, because nothing of value is at stake. (Element [2] is not met.)

Bets on Betcha are a third type. Unlike any other betting venue on the planet, Betcha bettors always retain the right to withdraw their bets and, for up to three days, not pay their losses. (Try that at a casino.) Therefore, they are not &#8220-risking&#8221- anything. No &#8220-risk&#8221- means no &#8220-gamble.&#8221- (This last reason, we think, is why mayors and governors can bet with impunity on the outcomes of Super Bowls and World Series and not get themselves arrested.)

Please note: This is our opinion only. Although (1) we spent thousands of man hours analyzing this and point and related ones, (2) our analysis encompassed U.S. federal law and the law of all 50 states, and (3) we are betting our very freedom that our analysis is spot on, it isn&#8217-t as though some Almighty Power came down from the heavens and deemed us &#8220-legal.&#8221- That&#8217-s not the way the law works.

Will bettors/speculators abide by an honor system?

Nick Jenkins sends me the link to his earlier blog post&#8230-

[…] This one &#8212- an objection to the Betcha Platform from my oldest, dearest friend. Let&#8217-s call him Cole Sparrow. (Name changed to protect the innocent.) Mr. Sparrow, not an investor, informed me over a Christmas family dinner that no one will use Betcha because they&#8217-ll never know for sure whether their betting opponent(s) will welch on them.

Three problems. The first is that, as David Bunnell pointed out in his excellent &#8220-The eBay Phenomenon&#8221- (2000), they said the same thing about eBay &#8212- and then some:

The odds against the success of this venture would have seemed substantial back in 1995 ad 1996. The market for the sale of goods over the Internet, particularly through person-to-person trading, was new, and did not enjoy widespread acceptance. Buying something of [substantial] value, often sight unseen, from a total stranger thousands of miles away did not fall into the category of [natural] acts. Further, the growth of Internet use would have to continue if the auction market hoped to gain real size. And there was no assurance that it would. (Emphasis mine.)

Suffice it to say, these concerns of 1995-96 are concerns no more. Moreover, the p2p trading market caught on despite the fact that innocent parties in fraudulent trades usually end up out something real &#8212- their money. In the case of p2p betting, a stiffed bettor loses only something he never had in the first place &#8212- the win on his wager.

Second, most customers think there&#8217-s more to life than metaphysical certainty of, in effect, order fulfillment. For example, despite the fact that they may get stiffed by sellers, people still use eBay. Reason: it&#8217-s fun. If we do it right, Betcha will be fun, too. (Indeed, we view &#8220-fun&#8221- as our top selling point.)

Third: there are many places on the Betcha Platform where bettors can be assured they&#8217-ll get paid on a win. They&#8217-re called &#8220-Pools.&#8221-

My Macintosh MacBook Pro 17″

macintosh-macbook-pro-17

What I dislike:

– The mighty mouse (which I prefer to the trackpad). It is difficult to get a clean, straight right-click &#8212-as I was used to on my (Dell) PC. Sometimes, my right-click is interpreted as a left-click &#8212-shitty mouse. UPDATE: Mike Arrington hates the Mighty Mouse, too.

fish

What I like:

All the great open-source software available for the Apple Macintosh (ditto for the iPhone). (Some are also listed here.) Contra Mike Linksvayer, I think it is a great match. I am sure that our good doctor David Pennock (another open-source fanboy) and mister Adam Siegel (another Macintosh fanboy) agree with moi. :-D

ired-lite

What I like:

iRed Lite, which is a little software that allows you to command a bunch of applications via the Apple Remote (as opposed to the mouse or trackpad). It is particularly useful for audio, video and presentations. For instance, you can go to the next slide (or the previous slide) without ever touching your Mac, simply by clicking on the right (or left) button of your Apple Remote &#8212-and you can do that while being far away from your Mac.

appleair

What I dislike:

I don&#8217-t recommend the Apple MacBook Air. Its screen is too small (13 inch). Do buy a computer with a very big screen. See more computer tips here.