Yearly Archives: 2009

The truth about (enterprise) prediction markets

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Paul Hewitt:

[…] In virtually every case, the prediction market forecast is closer to the official HP forecast than it is to the actual outcome. Perhaps these markets are better at forecasting the forecast than they are at forecasting the outcome! Looking further into the results, while most of the predictions have a smaller error than the HP official forecasts, the differences are, in most cases, quite small. For example, in Event 3, the HP forecast error was 59.549% vs. 53.333% for the prediction market. They’re both really poor forecasts. To the decision-maker, the difference between these forecasts is not material.

There were eight markets that had HP official forecasts. In four of these (50%), the forecast error was greater than 25%. Even though, only three of the prediction market forecast errors were greater than 25%, this can hardly be a ringing endorsement for the accuracy of prediction markets (at least in this study). […]

To the despair of the Nashville imbecile, Paul&#8217-s analysis is quite similar to mine (circa February 14, 2009):

The prediction market technology is not a disruptive technology, and the social utility of the prediction markets is marginal. Number one, the aggregated information has value only for the totally uninformed people (a group that comprises those who overly obsess with prediction markets and have a narrow cultural universe). Number two, the added accuracy (if any) is minute, and, anyway, doesn’t fill up the gap between expectations and omniscience (which is how people judge forecasters). In our view, the social utility of the prediction markets lays in efficiency, not in accuracy. In complicated situations, the prediction markets integrate expectations (informed by facts and expertise) much faster than the mass media do. Their accuracy/efficiency is their uniqueness. It is their velocity that we should put to work.

Prediction markets are not a disruptive technology, but merely another means of forecasting.

Go reading Paul&#8217-s analysis in full.

I would like to add 2 things to Paul&#8217-s conclusion:

  1. We have been lied to about the real value of the prediction markets. Part of the &#8220-field of prediction markets&#8221- (which is a terminology that encompasses more people and organizations than just the prediction market industry) is made up of liars who live by the hype and will die by the hype.
  2. Prediction markets have value in specific cases where it could be demonstrated that an information aggregation mechanism is the appropriate method that should be put at work in those cases (and not in others). Neither the Ivory Tower economic canaries nor the self-described prediction market &#8220-practitioners&#8221- have done this job.

Max Keiser: Je suis un artiste incompris.

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Max Keiser:

[…] What I think PirateMyFilm will bring to the copyright reform party is the idea that films and music can be collectively financed, i.e., crowd financed, with both the artistic creator and the art consumer participating in the revenue streams.

To me, economics, markets and finance are an artistic medium in their own right and, as such, can be modeled, molded, manufactured and modified in artistic ways reflecting self expression as easily as paint, words, clay or plastic.

All of the projects I’ve been involved with for the past 15 years: [Hollywood Stock Exchange], KarmaBanque, GulagWealthFund, PirateMyFilm and my yet-to-be-publish novel, “Buy Love, Sell Fear,” all share this common characteristic of seeing price discovery and market making as a form of self expression and artistic freedom.

The (new) Internet business models

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This is the latest addition in our series about how to make money on the Web by giving out free content to get access to people and get their attention&#8230- and selling them something valuable with the other hand. So, here&#8217-s Michael Masnik. While you watch it, do download the files in MP4 using Video Download Helper, so that you can re-watch them later on on your own, when you are disconnected from the Internet.

If your feed reader doesn&#8217-t show you the 4 embedded videos below, then download this post.

If your feed reader doesn&#8217-t show you the 4 embedded videos above, then download this post.

PS: Deep apology to the Linux users. I don&#8217-t think they can view the videos. I will make up to you.

UPDATE: Mike Linksvayer:

The videos play fine on Linux, assuming the right (patent encumbered) codecs are installed, as they are on most systems. The silly interface wants you to use an officious quicktime install more than it wants you to watch the videos. So one just has to access the videos directly &#8212-

http://s3.amazonaws.com/mdialogueproduction/20931/16765/Mike_Masnick_Keynote_Part_1.mp4
http://s3.amazonaws.com/mdialogueproduction/20931/16771/Mike_Masnick_Keynote_-_Part_2.mp4
http://s3.amazonaws.com/mdialogueproduction/20931/16844/Mike_Masnick_Keynote_-_Part_3.mp4
http://s3.amazonaws.com/mdialogueproduction/20931/16853/Mike_Masnick_Keynote_-_Part_4.mp4

A young Hanson fanboy tries to build a new civilization that would float somewhere on the Ocean, far away from the supremacy of law… and, in the process, lashes out at his like-minded libertarian fellows operating in think tanks and political parties.

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He defines &#8220-libertarian folk activism&#8221- (i.e., the activities of the free-market think tanks and libertarian politicians):

Folk activism broadly corrupts political movements. It leads activists to do too much talking, debating, and proselytizing, and not enough real-world action.

He asks the libertarian people to stop investing in ideas but, rather, in actions:

If a fraction of the passion, thought, and capital that are wasted in libertarian folk activism were instead directed into more realistic paths, we would have a far better chance at achieving liberty in our lifetime. We must override our instinct to proselytize, and instead consciously analyze routes to reform. Whether or not you agree with my analysis of specific strategies, my time will not have been wasted if I can get more libertarians to stop bashing their heads against the incentives of democracy, to stop complaining about how people are blind to the abuse of power while themselves being blind to the stability of power, and to think about how we can make systemic changes, outside entrenched power structures, that could realistically lead to a freer world.

Cato&#8217-s Tim Lee rebuts his ideas.

His own daddy rebuts his ideas, too:

My conclusion is that while something like seasteading or crypto anarchy may indeed be the most hopeful path to a freer future, those are not the only sorts of approach worth attempting. An alternative, for academics, authors, newspaper columnists, anyone able to produce ideas and information and put them into circulation, is to try to alter the mix of free information that drives the coarse control mechanism of democracy.