Robin Hanson’-s false good idea: collecting track records.
But his post is the living proof that he is wrong:
Prediction markets incentivize traders in researching issues (reading the experts’- works), making probability bets, and delivering a collective verdict-
Experts don’-t like to state publicly their home-made probabilistic predictions —-as his post shows.
And if experts are not used to express scoreable forecasts, then, by essence, you can’-t collect anything. Hence, the superiority of the prediction market method.
So, John Edwards’- friend would pay about $180,000 each year for her —-if I understand well.
What kind of R.O.I. did Fred Baron expect on that investment? That’-s what the “-free”- Press should be asking.
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Google’-s cached webpages of the National Enquirer about John Edwards – Click on “-Cached”-.
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John Edwards is a liar and a hypocrite. Video
Edwards infidelity envoye par dollarsandsense123
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John Edwards’- statement
Dallas Morning News + New York Times + Robert Scoble + CBS News
Elisabeth Edwards + Huff Post
CNN + ABC News + VIDEO + LA Times
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Emile Servan-Schreiber was so right. I feel better now that I made a killing at HubDub shorting that f*****g bastard of John Edwards.
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UPDATE: API + NewsWeek
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UPDATE: The ex mistress rules out a paternity test. So, now we know what the big money is buying: her silence on the fact that the child is John Edwards’- one.
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UPDATE: American Spectator + Huff Post + Huff Post
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UPDATE: ABC News
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UPDATE: Radar + Radar
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UPDATE: CNN
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UPDATE: Cleveland Leader
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Video
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
SocialPredictor is a piece of crap.
I met with Alan Greenspan. He reads Midas Oracle on a daily basis. I have the photo to prove it. Take a look.
You know what I thought I first saw that picture (little Fogarty planted next to Master Of Credit Alan Greenspan)?… I thought, well, it’s about time that the prediction market industry does the “product endorsement by celebrity” marketing thing. BetFair premiered that with John McCririck.
CHIC TOILET: Bo Cowgill, like all the Google employees in California, has the option to wash his delicate rear area, wash his precious front area, dry, perform something called “wand cleaning”, and so much more.
Equity Financing Documents For Prediction Market StartUps (like Inkling or HubDub)
Look at the inconsistency between the two faces. Mat Fogarty is jubilant like if he had just stolen a big client from Inkling. Alan Greenspan, on the other hand, has a constipated look that conveys that he is fed up with all those conference co-speakers asking him out for a photo op.
I like BetFair and the BetFair people very much. I was the only blogger to talk up the BetFair starting price system and the BetFair brand-new bet-matching logic. But the other face of the coin is that 2 aspects of their model are rotten to the core.
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BetFair was created in 1999 and started off in 2000. Since that time, 2 major things arrived on the world scene. Number one, we have seen the emergence of the prediction market approach. Number two, the Web has taken our lives, and Google has become the dominant Internet search engine. Here are how these 2 major trends are affecting BetFair negatively.
Decimal Odds (a.k.a. Digital Odds). – The prediction market approach means that we attack the public with the news and their associated probabilistic predictions, expressed in percentages, where high prices mean high probabilities of happening. BetFair, at the contrary, approach the public with a betting universe and an arcane vocabulary (”-backing”- and “-laying”-) where low prices mean high probabilities of happening. That is totally counter intuitive.
Non-Indexable Prediction Market Webpages. – Like it or not, Google is now the world’-s #1 media. We “-google”- anything, first thing in the morning. None of the BetFair prediction market webpages can be indexed by Google and the other Internet search engines. That means that BetFair is missing out, in my estimation, on hundreds of thousands of Google visitors each year. Those Google visitors will favor other prediction exchanges (e.g., HubDub) whose prediction market webpages are indexed naturally by the Internet search engines.
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The British, who drive on the wrong side of the road, don’-t have the 2 most important keys of the future.
– 200 web visitors (coming from Google) reached my John Edwards post, published yesterday afternoon (ET).
– 10% of them followed my links to the 2 HubDub prediction markets on John Edwards.
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Remember that those web stats count only the web visitors, not the feed subscribers —-who are more numerous, and whom I focus more on.
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TAKEAWAY: A popular PMJ website, which would associate fresh news and betting recommendations, would send many people to the prediction markets.
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The mainstream media and the classic bloggers will never deal with real-money prediction markets the way they should be dealt with —-for multiple reasons (moral, ethical, legal, etc.). And for other reasons, they will never link to the play-money prediction markets.
Look Justin Wolfers at the Wall Street Journal: He is the most excited about prediction markets. Yet, he does not link to InTrade directly. He does not link to the InTrade real-money prediction markets. Hence, his blah blah blah does not translate into more revenues for InTrade.
What it takes is a brand-new media organization, entirely devoted to prediction markets, and run by die-hard prediction market people.
Because HubDub is the only prediction exchange whose prediction market webpages are indexed highly by Google.
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That query leads to that prediction market webpage.
That query leads to that prediction market webpage.
That query leads to that prediction market webpage.
That query leads to that prediction market webpage.
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In the 4 cases above, you can spot HubDub in the top 10 Google results.
I speculate that HubDub is going to harvest hundreds of thousands of Google visits in the next 12 months.
Which is probably higher that the BetFair blog will get from Google —-and there is a low conversion rate (from the BetFair blog to the BetFair prediction market webpages), probably. With the HubDub model, the conversion rate is always 100%.
Nigel Eccles, this time, I am impressed.
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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
Testing the new HubDub chart widgets
Why InTrade CEO John Delaney, TradeSports acting CEO John Delaney, BetFair CEO David Yu, HubDub CEO Nigel Eccles and NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber should supplicate me to develop my prediction market journalism project
The John Edwards Non-Affair: How on Earth did they get this photo, what does this photo prove, and which prediction markets should we trade on to profit from this alledged scandal?
Nick Davis’ effort to clean up British horse racing
Free Money On The Table At InTrade
Google Web Search shows that I am the only blogger in the world to talk about “prediction market journalism”.
Marginal Revolution vs. Freakonomics vs. Overcoming Bias vs. Midas Oracle
– Will CNN report on the John Edwards/mistress/baby rumors? | Hubdub
– Will a supposed affair between John Edwards and Rielle Hunter be confirmed? | Hubdub
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UPDATE: The Charlotte Observer
UPDATE: National Review
UPDATE: Google’-s cached webpages of the National Enquirer about John Edwards – Click on “-Cached”-.
UPDATE: Video
Edwards infidelity envoye par dollarsandsense123
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UPDATE: UPI + Daily Mail + National Review
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UPDATE: ABC News + John Edwards’- statement
UPDATE: Associated Press + Silicon Alley Insider
UPDATE: LA Times + Huff Post + USA Today + Huff Post + CNN + NewsWeek + MSNBC
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UPDATE: Blogumentary + Dallas Morning News + New York Times + Robert Scoble + CBS News
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UPDATE: Elisabeth Edwards + Huff Post
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UPDATE: CNN + ABC News + VIDEO + LA Times
UPDATE: API + NewsWeek
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UPDATE: The ex mistress rules out a paternity test. So, now we know what the big money is buying: her silence on the fact that the child is John Edwards’- one.
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UPDATE: American Spectator + Huff Post + Huff Post
Our good friend Bo Cowgill might have already re-created those prediction markets on Google’-s internal prediction exchange at a marginal cost of zero US dollar. No need for him to “-subsidize”- external prediction markets.
[As an appendix, I precise that I am in favor of opening the enterprise prediction markets to external traders, for some questions.]
Conditional prediction markets is a great idea on the paper. Many people (e.g., Mike Linksvayer) like the idea. However, here is what the uncritical Robin Hanson fanboys blogging on Overcoming Whatever won’-t tell you:
The first problem is that nobody trades those things.
The second problem is that subsidizing those conditional prediction markets costs an arm and a leg.
The third problem is that no major news media outlet has ever quoted the prediction market prices / probabilities generated by those conditional prediction markets.
Peter McCluskey could have rent a French mistress (or a French gigolo) for a full year with all the money he is spending on Robin Hanson’-s idea. Or vaccinated the whole African continent against Malaria. See Peter’-s comment, at the middle of the webpage, here.
Philanthropy and prediction markets are not mixing well —-yet.
