Robin Hanson’-s false good idea: collecting track records.
But his post is the living proof that he is wrong:
- Prediction markets incentivize traders in researching issues (reading the experts’- works), making probability bets, and delivering a collective verdict-
- Experts don’-t like to state publicly their home-made probabilistic predictions —-as his post shows.
And if experts are not used to express scoreable forecasts, then, by essence, you can’-t collect anything. Hence, the superiority of the prediction market method.
Another false good idea from Robin Hanson.