Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets

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Robin Hanson&#8217-s false good idea: collecting track records.

But his post is the living proof that he is wrong:

  • Prediction markets incentivize traders in researching issues (reading the experts&#8217- works), making probability bets, and delivering a collective verdict-
  • Experts don&#8217-t like to state publicly their home-made probabilistic predictions &#8212-as his post shows.

And if experts are not used to express scoreable forecasts, then, by essence, you can&#8217-t collect anything. Hence, the superiority of the prediction market method.

Another false good idea from Robin Hanson.

3 thoughts on “Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets

  1. Medemi said:

    You could combine the two and provide feedback to customers, in some form, if account holders are regular customers. Should result in some interesting dynamics, at least. This way you would include some of the superior elements we see in open debates.

  2. Chris F. Masse said:

    @Medemi: “You could combine the two”

    Excellent remark. HubDub is doing just that, now that I think of it.

  3. FAMOUS SCIENTIST TO ROBIN "HIGH IQ" HANSON: Science, which is a very long-term endeavor, does not need your stickin' idea about scoreable predictions and track records. Please, go back to minding economic issues in your Ivory Tower, and said:

    […] Period. […]

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